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Boys - Girls
2023 - 2024 - 2025
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State Rank #4
New Haven Regional Rank #2
Woodlan Sectional Rank #2
Most Likely Finish -
State Champion 2.6%
Top 5 at State Finals 82.1%
Top 10 at State Finals 98.8%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.




Season RatingPreseason Rating John Cleland Invitational (4k) Taylor University Invitational Marion Invitational Bruin Invitational West Noble Invitational New Haven Classic Nike Twilight New Haven Sectional New Haven Regional State Finals
Date 8/24 8/31 9/7 9/14 9/21 9/28 10/5 10/19 10/26 11/2
Team Rating 153 156 145 131 147 193 215 207 296 176 161
Team Adjusted Rating 144 145 131 147 159 167 172 191 176 161
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating John Cleland Invitational (4k) Taylor University Invitational Marion Invitational Bruin Invitational West Noble Invitational New Haven Classic Nike Twilight New Haven Sectional New Haven Regional State Finals
29  Caterina Perego 11 18:55 19:14 18:36 18:26 18:35 18:53 19:13 19:08
34  Lucy Kramer 10 19:01 18:55 18:56 18:52 18:45 18:39 18:47 19:02 18:50 19:33 19:22
54  Lindsey Arnold 10 19:15 19:46 19:37 19:28 19:15 19:34 19:50 19:19 19:43 19:58 19:11 19:07
71  Avalyn Goldstone 9 19:24 19:28 19:27 19:19 19:25 22:35 19:25 19:15 19:18 19:22
88  Kaitlynn Hansen 10 19:35 19:58 19:15 19:27 19:44 19:59 19:40 19:49 19:41 19:56 19:32 19:26
101  Daisy Niezer 11 19:42 20:36 19:41 19:27 19:21 19:27 19:28 19:25 19:51 19:46 20:38
152  Ella Antibus 10 20:07 19:14 20:01 19:43 19:59 20:01 19:52 20:12 20:07 20:36
155  Brier Saddington 11 20:08 19:50 20:10 19:49 20:10 19:57 19:53 20:14 20:02 20:03 20:37 20:08
196  Kylie Kottkamp 9 20:23 20:11 20:10 20:13 20:14 20:46 20:14 20:34 22:04
197  Alexis Goebel 12 20:23 20:22 20:29 20:14 19:56 20:12 20:23 20:28 20:18 20:47
227  Ember Gaff 9 20:35 20:38 21:22 20:45 20:16 20:31 20:17 20:32
253  Harper Stiltner 9 20:39 20:33 20:22 20:16 20:27 20:52 20:46 20:50
312  Leah Smits 10 20:53 21:59 21:08 20:44 21:37 20:18 20:34 20:37 21:39
453  Lilia Chadwick 10 21:27 21:24 21:18 21:11 21:36 21:29 21:29 21:18 21:30
460  Kendall Burch 10 21:28 21:22 21:26 21:30 21:30 21:20
843  Alice Ford 9 22:25 22:05 22:52 22:41 22:03
1,055  Kaelyn Godfrey 10 22:55 22:30 22:50 22:28 23:13 22:47 23:37 22:46
1,185  Zuri Christensen 11 23:13 23:29 23:19 22:56 23:15 23:07 23:14 22:56 23:31
1,231  Yevva Ireland 11 23:19 23:09 23:03 23:31 22:57 23:36 23:16 23:12
1,239  Savannah Weaver 9 23:20 23:11 23:14 23:26 23:20
1,279  Elsie Loshe 10 23:25 22:59 23:36 23:37 23:43 22:46 23:02 23:52 23:18




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.






Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
State Finals 100% 4.1 181 2.6 12.5 31.5 22.5 12.9 7.0 4.0 2.9 1.7 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Regionals 100% 1.8 62 16.8 83.2 0.0
Sectionals 100% 1.8 37 20.8 79.2



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Caterina Perego 100% 32.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.9 100.0%
Lucy Kramer 100% 37.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.5 2.3 100.0%
Lindsey Arnold 100% 55.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 99.8%
Avalyn Goldstone 100% 69.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.1%
Kaitlynn Hansen 100% 87.7 0.0 95.5%
Daisy Niezer 100% 100.7 89.9%
Ella Antibus 100% 144.9 39.5%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Caterina Perego 100% 6.4 0.7 3.1 6.8 15.6 17.7 14.4 10.9 7.8 6.7 4.7 3.3 2.4 1.9 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Lucy Kramer 100% 7.9 0.3 1.1 3.2 7.7 12.5 14.0 12.5 10.0 7.8 7.1 6.0 4.0 3.4 2.9 2.1 1.9 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 100.0%
Lindsey Arnold 100% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.1 6.8 7.3 7.9 7.7 7.2 8.2 7.3 6.3 6.7 5.7 4.9 4.0 3.5 2.7 2.1 1.3 0.9 0.8 100.0%
Avalyn Goldstone 100% 16.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.8 3.2 3.9 5.1 5.3 6.0 6.3 6.7 7.0 7.3 6.5 6.0 5.9 5.3 5.2 3.9 3.7 2.5 100.0%
Kaitlynn Hansen 100% 20.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.6 3.0 4.3 4.8 5.5 5.7 6.4 6.4 7.0 7.0 6.3 5.7 6.1 100.0%
Daisy Niezer 100% 23.6 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.9 2.0 2.7 3.6 4.1 4.3 5.4 5.8 5.8 6.9 7.4 6.1 100.0%
Ella Antibus 100% 34.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.9 1.3 2.2 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Caterina Perego 3.1 0.0 6.6 39.9 24.7 12.6 6.6 4.0 3.0 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Lucy Kramer 4.0 2.2 20.0 28.1 18.0 11.5 7.5 4.8 4.0 2.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Lindsey Arnold 6.7 0.2 2.4 6.8 14.6 16.2 14.4 10.1 10.2 10.2 7.1 4.3 1.9 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
Avalyn Goldstone 9.0 0.0 0.3 1.7 5.1 9.0 10.5 11.1 11.9 11.7 13.0 10.7 7.3 4.4 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Kaitlynn Hansen 11.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.2 4.6 5.8 7.1 9.2 11.8 16.5 15.1 11.9 8.1 4.6 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.0
Daisy Niezer 13.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.1 3.8 5.7 7.1 11.0 17.4 17.3 16.0 10.5 4.1 1.3 0.2 0.1
Ella Antibus 16.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 4.2 8.5 17.2 27.5 21.3 11.5 4.1 2.1 0.7 0.3 0.1