Noblesville
Boys - Girls
2023 - 2024 - 2025
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State Rank #7
Shelbyville Regional Rank #2
Noblesville Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish -
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 20.3%
Top 10 at State Finals 76.6%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.




Season RatingPreseason Rating Hamilton County Rick Weinheimer Invite Wildcat Classic Invitational Flashrock Invitational Hoosier Crossroads Conference Nike Twilight Noblesville JV Invite Noblesville Sectional Shelbyville Regional State Finals
Date 8/31 9/7 9/14 9/21 9/28 10/5 10/7 10/19 10/26 11/2
Team Rating 211 192 189 562 229 206 174 772 211 216 207
Team Adjusted Rating 192 189 194 193 206 174 211 211 216 207
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Hamilton County Rick Weinheimer Invite Wildcat Classic Invitational Flashrock Invitational Hoosier Crossroads Conference Nike Twilight Noblesville JV Invite Noblesville Sectional Shelbyville Regional State Finals
33  Riley Flynn 12 19:00 18:59 19:01 18:40 18:52 19:04 18:38 19:03 19:08 19:03
42  Ansley Applegate 11 19:07 18:59 18:46 18:55 19:10 19:05 18:35 19:12 19:19 19:12
74  Brinkley Cooper 12 19:26 20:14 19:19 19:15 19:14 19:30 19:14 19:34 19:27 19:28
76  Jayde Stamm 10 19:27 21:28 19:24 19:52 19:14 19:14 19:31 19:23 19:30 19:20
228  Kate Mumaw 10 20:36 20:11 20:54 21:06 20:12 20:36 21:06 20:27 20:25 20:36
249  Lexi Miller 12 20:38 21:15 20:33 20:13 21:12 21:28 20:26 20:37 20:30
295  Ella Wirkner 12 20:50 21:56 20:36 20:20 20:47 20:52 20:35 20:33 21:40 21:10
307  Gretchen Graham 11 20:52 20:21 20:47 20:48 20:53 21:07 21:24 20:40
467  Norah Mathes 9 21:29 21:57 21:40 21:26 21:24 21:07 21:31 21:23
483  Addie Scott 10 21:32 21:06 21:46 21:45 21:12 21:39 21:23 21:37
745  Izzy Salinas 9 22:10 21:52 22:06 22:36 22:24 22:14 21:30
768  Emmerson Dougherty 12 22:14 21:54 22:05 22:21 23:32 22:39 21:58 21:54
828  Katie Horbett 12 22:23 23:14 22:12 22:31 22:20 22:18 22:19 22:22
832  Olivia Ozimek 9 22:23 23:02 22:28 22:34 22:07 21:44 22:28
864  Kenley Johnson 10 22:28 21:25 23:38 22:38 22:27 22:30 25:01 21:49 22:14
865  Anna Miller 10 22:28 21:47 24:09 22:43 22:00 22:03 22:39 22:43
1,009  Addi Struck 10 22:49 22:34 23:03 22:40 22:37 22:54
Addison Emmerson 12 23:39 21:46 23:31 23:43
Brooke Dinius 12 23:47 24:13 24:20 23:19 23:47 23:44 23:53 23:07
Grace Crawford 10 24:20 23:37 24:15 24:38 24:24
Selby Jackson 11 24:22 23:49 24:26 24:34 23:54 24:15 24:24 24:50 23:53
Hailee Ballard 12 24:47 23:38 24:57 25:05 24:43 24:36 24:32 26:10 23:36
Mallory Stewart 12 25:43 24:34 25:48 25:32 24:46 26:10 25:48




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.






Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
State Finals 100% 8.2 261 0.0 0.2 2.9 6.0 11.1 13.7 13.0 11.3 9.8 8.6 7.3 6.0 4.5 2.8 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1
Regionals 100% 1.7 93 44.6 39.9 13.5 1.8 0.2 0.0
Sectionals 100% 1.2 56 82.8 16.0 1.1 0.1 0.0



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Riley Flynn 100% 36.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.8 2.3 2.3 100.0%
Ansley Applegate 100% 44.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.2 99.9%
Brinkley Cooper 100% 73.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 97.2%
Jayde Stamm 100% 74.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 96.6%
Kate Mumaw 100% 189.3 0.8%
Lexi Miller 100% 192.7 0.8%
Ella Wirkner 100% 206.9 0.1%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Riley Flynn 100% 8.9 0.0 0.1 2.2 4.8 6.4 10.5 13.0 14.4 12.3 10.1 7.7 5.3 4.2 2.8 2.0 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Ansley Applegate 100% 10.7 0.0 0.6 1.4 3.1 5.7 8.1 10.9 12.0 11.5 9.8 8.8 7.4 5.8 4.2 3.1 2.4 1.4 1.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 100.0%
Brinkley Cooper 100% 16.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.4 3.9 5.1 6.5 7.3 7.4 8.1 8.5 7.4 6.9 6.0 6.1 5.0 3.8 3.6 2.2 100.0%
Jayde Stamm 100% 17.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.1 2.4 3.7 4.4 6.6 6.4 8.2 7.9 8.2 7.5 7.1 5.8 6.2 4.8 4.0 3.3 2.7 100.0%
Kate Mumaw 100% 50.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Lexi Miller 100% 52.8 0.0 0.1 100.0%
Ella Wirkner 100% 64.7 0.0 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Riley Flynn 4.8 0.2 5.1 16.9 35.4 21.7 10.6 5.1 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Ansley Applegate 5.7 0.1 2.0 6.6 20.5 29.1 17.0 10.9 6.5 3.9 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Brinkley Cooper 9.1 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.4 12.2 14.7 15.5 14.8 12.7 10.7 6.4 3.5 1.8 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jayde Stamm 9.4 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.3 10.8 14.5 14.7 15.0 15.0 10.8 6.8 3.8 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kate Mumaw 25.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.4 2.8 3.8 4.5 5.9 6.3 6.4 7.0 7.0
Lexi Miller 26.5 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.6 3.1 3.7 4.2 5.4 6.1 6.2 6.5
Ella Wirkner 31.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.3 2.1 2.3 3.0 3.8