All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | | Preseason Rating | |
Warsaw Tiger Invitational |
Larry James Invitational |
NLC Round 1 |
Marion Invitational |
NLC Super Dual #2 |
Flashrock Invitational |
New Haven Classic |
Northern Lakes Conference |
Manchester Sectional |
New Haven Regional |
State Finals |
|---|
| Date | | |
8/18 |
8/24 |
9/3 |
9/7 |
9/11 |
9/21 |
9/28 |
10/5 |
10/19 |
10/26 |
11/2 |
| Team Rating |
447 | |
384 |
485 |
479 |
546 |
497 |
531 |
567 |
418 |
444 |
453 |
447 |
| Team Adjusted Rating | | |
384 |
485 |
479 |
486 |
497 |
531 |
567 |
418 |
444 |
453 |
427 |
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating | Preseason Rating |
Warsaw Tiger Invitational |
Larry James Invitational |
NLC Round 1 |
Marion Invitational |
NLC Super Dual #2 |
Flashrock Invitational |
New Haven Classic |
Northern Lakes Conference |
Manchester Sectional |
New Haven Regional |
State Finals |
|---|
| 61 |
Samantha Rastrelli |
11 |
19:21 |
19:52 |
19:17 |
19:19 |
19:34 |
19:44 |
19:42 |
19:37 |
20:49 |
19:28 |
19:32 |
19:11 |
19:17 |
| 92 |
Ella Laput |
12 |
19:36 |
20:32 |
20:27 |
21:16 |
19:43 |
20:48 |
20:17 |
20:26 |
20:56 |
19:39 |
19:50 |
19:50 |
19:28 |
| 207 |
Eden Metz |
11 |
20:26 |
20:21 |
20:00 |
20:13 |
21:20 |
|
20:42 |
21:04 |
20:38 |
20:30 |
20:06 |
20:31 |
20:17 |
| 489 |
Hannah Fisher |
11 |
21:33 |
22:49 |
21:17 |
21:27 |
21:34 |
22:00 |
21:22 |
21:37 |
21:36 |
21:19 |
21:24 |
21:37 |
|
| 506 |
Bryce Eherenman |
12 |
21:36 |
22:31 |
20:50 |
21:13 |
21:54 |
21:13 |
21:40 |
21:46 |
21:35 |
21:13 |
21:39 |
21:33 |
21:56 |
| 518 |
Aubrey Bricker |
9 |
21:38 |
|
22:10 |
21:47 |
21:20 |
21:26 |
|
|
|
23:26 |
|
|
|
| 519 |
Stephanie Malagon-Juarez |
10 |
21:39 |
|
21:35 |
21:46 |
21:17 |
21:28 |
21:54 |
21:36 |
21:27 |
22:26 |
|
22:07 |
21:30 |
| 571 |
Annabel Parker |
12 |
21:46 |
22:10 |
21:03 |
21:21 |
21:34 |
21:52 |
22:36 |
21:35 |
21:25 |
21:39 |
23:25 |
22:05 |
21:59 |
| 592 |
Katie Robertson |
9 |
21:49 |
|
22:10 |
21:50 |
21:49 |
21:29 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 693 |
Kyla Transparenti |
9 |
22:03 |
|
|
23:19 |
22:44 |
22:00 |
22:27 |
23:24 |
22:18 |
22:11 |
22:05 |
|
21:54 |
| 941 |
Matilda Granger |
10 |
22:38 |
22:19 |
|
|
|
|
22:39 |
23:36 |
22:22 |
22:19 |
|
|
|
| 1,122 |
Kaelyn Stoffel |
12 |
23:05 |
23:05 |
|
23:03 |
23:02 |
23:21 |
23:56 |
22:40 |
22:29 |
23:13 |
|
|
|
| 1,209 |
Nadia Patton |
10 |
23:15 |
|
22:56 |
22:48 |
23:03 |
22:53 |
23:05 |
23:37 |
23:31 |
23:30 |
|
|
|
| 1,265 |
Airyana Bradley |
11 |
23:24 |
|
24:22 |
23:55 |
23:51 |
23:23 |
23:01 |
26:42 |
22:44 |
23:13 |
|
|
|
|
Lucy Andrew |
10 |
23:51 |
|
23:23 |
|
23:24 |
23:14 |
|
|
24:42 |
24:38 |
|
|
|
|
Neko Ewert |
10 |
24:03 |
|
23:30 |
23:37 |
24:16 |
23:42 |
24:03 |
24:30 |
24:14 |
23:53 |
|
|
|
|
Grace Landon |
10 |
24:07 |
|
23:16 |
23:44 |
23:55 |
26:13 |
|
|
24:27 |
24:21 |
|
|
|
|
Bronwyn Poch |
11 |
24:09 |
|
22:59 |
23:58 |
23:06 |
23:25 |
25:13 |
24:34 |
24:20 |
24:31 |
|
|
|
|
Madeline Lezark |
12 |
24:48 |
22:18 |
|
|
24:17 |
24:38 |
23:36 |
26:51 |
25:29 |
25:19 |
|
|
|
|
Margaret Barnett |
12 |
25:49 |
24:08 |
26:12 |
|
24:11 |
25:05 |
25:18 |
|
26:23 |
27:11 |
|
|
|
|
Mackenzie Langhorn |
12 |
26:13 |
23:47 |
|
|
|
26:52 |
25:51 |
25:20 |
26:16 |
26:33 |
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| State Finals |
100% |
21.6 |
519 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.2 |
0.4 |
1.0 |
3.0 |
5.3 |
12.7 |
22.0 |
24.7 |
18.9 |
8.8 |
2.8 |
| Regionals |
100% |
4.7 |
199 |
|
|
5.1 |
46.9 |
26.7 |
14.6 |
5.1 |
1.4 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
1.9 |
57 |
6.3 |
93.6 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Samantha Rastrelli |
100% |
65.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
99.2% |
| Ella Laput |
100% |
90.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
94.5% |
| Eden Metz |
100% |
175.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7.9% |
| Hannah Fisher |
100% |
232.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
| Bryce Eherenman |
100% |
233.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
| Stephanie Malagon-Juarez |
100% |
235.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
| Annabel Parker |
100% |
237.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Samantha Rastrelli |
100% |
15.3 |
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.8 |
1.8 |
2.5 |
3.1 |
4.1 |
4.7 |
5.4 |
6.5 |
5.6 |
6.6 |
6.8 |
6.9 |
6.4 |
6.6 |
5.4 |
5.1 |
4.2 |
3.9 |
3.4 |
2.7 |
2.1 |
|
100.0% |
| Ella Laput |
100% |
21.4 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
1.2 |
1.4 |
1.7 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
3.4 |
4.0 |
4.6 |
5.1 |
5.8 |
6.8 |
6.6 |
6.4 |
6.2 |
6.1 |
6.2 |
|
100.0% |
| Eden Metz |
100% |
41.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
|
100.0% |
| Hannah Fisher |
100% |
81.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Bryce Eherenman |
100% |
84.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Stephanie Malagon-Juarez |
100% |
86.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Annabel Parker |
100% |
92.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Samantha Rastrelli |
3.0 |
0.1 |
0.7 |
50.4 |
31.2 |
11.7 |
4.0 |
1.5 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Ella Laput |
4.4 |
|
|
8.4 |
26.9 |
33.9 |
15.0 |
9.1 |
4.3 |
2.0 |
0.4 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Eden Metz |
10.2 |
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
1.4 |
2.5 |
6.3 |
12.2 |
19.8 |
38.1 |
14.0 |
4.0 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Hannah Fisher |
19.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.3 |
1.3 |
3.0 |
5.2 |
7.6 |
8.8 |
10.3 |
12.0 |
12.0 |
11.4 |
9.9 |
8.1 |
4.4 |
2.7 |
| Bryce Eherenman |
19.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.3 |
1.1 |
1.9 |
3.6 |
6.2 |
7.6 |
9.0 |
11.2 |
11.7 |
12.1 |
11.3 |
9.7 |
5.8 |
3.7 |
| Stephanie Malagon-Juarez |
20.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.2 |
0.5 |
1.4 |
2.6 |
4.1 |
6.2 |
8.0 |
9.6 |
11.3 |
12.2 |
11.8 |
11.8 |
7.9 |
4.8 |
| Annabel Parker |
22.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.9 |
1.8 |
3.2 |
3.6 |
4.8 |
7.7 |
9.6 |
11.7 |
14.2 |
14.4 |
10.7 |
|
