All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | | Preseason Rating | |
Brownsburg 4k |
Hamilton County |
State Preview |
Wildcat Classic Invitational |
|---|
| Date | | |
8/24 |
8/31 |
9/7 |
9/14 |
| Team Rating |
318 | |
360 |
291 |
301 |
972 |
| Team Adjusted Rating | | |
288 |
291 |
301 |
318 |
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating | Preseason Rating |
Brownsburg 4k |
Hamilton County |
State Preview |
Wildcat Classic Invitational |
|---|
| 53 |
Caitlin Hawkins |
9 |
19:18 |
|
19:25 |
19:18 |
19:08 |
|
| 62 |
Abby Lotter |
11 |
19:23 |
20:12 |
19:13 |
19:15 |
19:25 |
|
| 93 |
Isabella Murch |
12 |
19:41 |
20:21 |
|
19:27 |
19:39 |
|
| 275 |
Ashley Wright |
12 |
20:45 |
|
20:33 |
21:20 |
20:29 |
|
| 323 |
Allie Belush |
11 |
20:55 |
|
20:40 |
20:55 |
21:06 |
|
| 341 |
Melanie Perez |
9 |
20:59 |
|
21:11 |
20:42 |
21:00 |
|
| 374 |
Mia Quagliaroli |
9 |
21:11 |
|
21:09 |
21:05 |
21:13 |
|
| 405 |
Lorelai Polk |
9 |
21:18 |
|
21:14 |
21:23 |
21:10 |
|
| 408 |
Fedora Hagenaars |
10 |
21:19 |
21:46 |
21:38 |
21:00 |
21:00 |
|
| 446 |
Grier Swaim |
11 |
21:25 |
21:21 |
21:14 |
21:21 |
21:36 |
|
| 497 |
Corinne McClanahan |
12 |
21:33 |
22:02 |
21:27 |
21:26 |
21:29 |
|
| 543 |
Aaliyah Hayes |
10 |
21:40 |
23:00 |
21:21 |
20:45 |
22:38 |
|
| 725 |
Tanvi Pothuri |
12 |
22:10 |
22:07 |
22:11 |
21:38 |
22:57 |
21:45 |
| 742 |
Braelynn Bodnar |
10 |
22:13 |
23:30 |
22:09 |
22:01 |
21:49 |
22:29 |
| 751 |
Lucy Clendenen |
11 |
22:15 |
24:23 |
21:29 |
21:56 |
22:12 |
22:55 |
| 854 |
Alexandra Baker |
11 |
22:32 |
21:53 |
22:20 |
22:42 |
22:23 |
22:58 |
| 1,038 |
Mia Schiesser |
12 |
22:59 |
23:55 |
23:12 |
22:20 |
22:25 |
23:26 |
| 1,053 |
Grace Wickman |
10 |
23:02 |
|
23:17 |
22:35 |
23:16 |
22:49 |
| 1,068 |
Kylie Lengner |
10 |
23:04 |
|
22:20 |
|
|
23:51 |
| 1,087 |
Sydney Watkins |
11 |
23:08 |
23:25 |
22:44 |
22:38 |
23:11 |
23:42 |
| 1,091 |
Laila Jackson |
9 |
23:08 |
|
24:54 |
23:14 |
23:29 |
22:21 |
| 1,098 |
Charlotte Huffman |
9 |
23:09 |
|
23:32 |
22:52 |
23:10 |
22:58 |
| 1,125 |
Joana Anton Caballer |
11 |
23:11 |
23:12 |
23:10 |
|
|
22:57 |
| 1,128 |
Aarna Akkineni |
11 |
23:12 |
23:46 |
|
23:26 |
23:06 |
22:34 |
| 1,154 |
Anisa Taylor |
11 |
23:14 |
22:45 |
23:40 |
22:40 |
23:03 |
24:04 |
|
Kyra Reed |
9 |
23:55 |
|
23:53 |
23:37 |
23:59 |
23:59 |
|
Sarah Almaya |
12 |
24:12 |
23:51 |
|
24:24 |
|
|
|
Andrea Davalos |
11 |
24:53 |
24:41 |
24:24 |
|
|
25:42 |
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| State Finals |
75.3% |
15.0 |
381 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.8 |
1.5 |
2.8 |
3.8 |
5.4 |
7.9 |
8.6 |
10.1 |
9.6 |
9.0 |
6.7 |
3.8 |
2.8 |
1.4 |
0.5 |
0.1 |
|
|
| Regionals |
99.3% |
4.7 |
163 |
1.1 |
3.7 |
9.8 |
23.3 |
37.5 |
16.7 |
5.6 |
1.5 |
0.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
3.7 |
96 |
1.5 |
5.9 |
25.1 |
61.2 |
5.6 |
0.7 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Caitlin Hawkins |
99.1% |
55.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
96.3% |
98.6% |
| Abby Lotter |
97.9% |
63.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
|
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
91.4% |
97.1% |
| Isabella Murch |
88.2% |
91.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
52.1% |
76.7% |
| Ashley Wright |
75.3% |
197.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.1% |
| Allie Belush |
75.3% |
207.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Melanie Perez |
75.3% |
211.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Mia Quagliaroli |
75.3% |
219.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Caitlin Hawkins |
100% |
14.3 |
|
|
|
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.9 |
1.6 |
2.4 |
3.4 |
4.8 |
7.0 |
7.5 |
9.4 |
9.2 |
8.8 |
8.6 |
7.5 |
5.9 |
5.0 |
3.7 |
3.6 |
2.4 |
2.1 |
1.5 |
0.9 |
100.0% |
100.0% |
| Abby Lotter |
100% |
15.9 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
1.3 |
1.8 |
2.9 |
4.3 |
6.2 |
8.0 |
8.7 |
8.6 |
8.2 |
7.3 |
7.8 |
5.4 |
5.6 |
4.6 |
3.9 |
3.5 |
2.9 |
1.9 |
100.0% |
100.0% |
| Isabella Murch |
100% |
22.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.8 |
1.2 |
1.7 |
2.7 |
3.3 |
4.6 |
4.6 |
4.9 |
6.1 |
6.9 |
7.1 |
7.1 |
7.2 |
6.6 |
100.0% |
100.0% |
| Ashley Wright |
100% |
62.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
99.8% |
| Allie Belush |
100% |
72.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
99.2% |
| Melanie Perez |
100.0% |
75.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
71.4% |
99.1% |
| Mia Quagliaroli |
99.9% |
87.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
30.0% |
96.6% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Caitlin Hawkins |
7.6 |
|
|
0.7 |
1.8 |
5.7 |
8.7 |
20.5 |
20.1 |
14.7 |
9.5 |
6.5 |
5.1 |
3.1 |
1.5 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
| Abby Lotter |
8.6 |
|
|
0.3 |
0.8 |
2.7 |
5.0 |
12.6 |
17.5 |
17.7 |
12.7 |
9.6 |
7.9 |
4.9 |
3.6 |
2.4 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
| Isabella Murch |
12.6 |
|
|
|
|
0.2 |
0.4 |
1.2 |
3.1 |
6.5 |
9.2 |
11.0 |
11.0 |
12.0 |
12.4 |
9.9 |
8.4 |
5.9 |
3.7 |
1.9 |
1.3 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
| Ashley Wright |
31.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.9 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
2.0 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
3.6 |
| Allie Belush |
35.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
1.6 |
| Melanie Perez |
36.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.9 |
| Mia Quagliaroli |
40.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.1 |
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
