Manchester
Boys - Girls
2023 - 2024 - 2025
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State Rank #94
New Haven Regional Rank #17
Manchester Sectional Rank #5
Most Likely Finish -
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 0.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.




Season RatingPreseason Rating Warsaw Tiger Invitational Manchester Invitational Maconaquah Invitational New Prairie Invitational New Haven Classic Three Rivers Conference Manchester Sectional New Haven Regional State Finals
Date 8/18 9/7 9/14 9/21 9/28 10/5 10/19 10/26 11/2
Team Rating 917 1,074 1,156 1,146 1,228 1,046 991 880 881
Team Adjusted Rating 980 1,156 1,029 981 1,046 991 880 881
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Warsaw Tiger Invitational Manchester Invitational Maconaquah Invitational New Prairie Invitational New Haven Classic Three Rivers Conference Manchester Sectional New Haven Regional State Finals
78  Ayla Cashdollar 12 19:27 19:31 19:15 19:47 19:23 19:19 19:32 19:44 19:14 19:19 19:20
156  Kadence Fox 12 20:08 19:43 20:17 21:42 20:50 20:26 20:50 20:07 20:04 19:57 20:23
757  Rachel Steely 10 22:12 22:38 22:20 23:08 22:16 22:44 22:16 21:55 22:00
Aubrey Carroll 12 24:11 26:04 25:02 24:38 25:07 25:00 23:46 24:01
Hannah Music 11 25:26 32:04 28:05 26:56 26:29 26:39 25:47 25:12
Maggie Akins 10 26:23 27:23 29:27 27:56 27:10 28:32 26:08
Shelby Cahill 11 28:04 32:04 30:05 28:38 29:34 28:39 28:50 27:49
Kaylee Fetters 11 28:07 27:53 27:58 28:01 28:21
Ella Bradley 12 29:59 28:36 30:11 30:37 30:50 28:42




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.






Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
State Finals 0.0%
Regionals 100% 16.0 434 0.0 0.2 3.3 14.9 22.1 22.7 19.2 11.6 5.2 0.8
Sectionals 100% 5.0 141 1.4 98.3 0.4



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ayla Cashdollar 99.5% 75.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.5% 99.5%
Kadence Fox 38.3% 136.2 38.3% 38.3%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ayla Cashdollar 100% 17.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.7 3.0 3.6 4.1 4.9 5.6 5.0 5.8 6.3 6.4 6.2 6.5 6.1 5.5 5.1 4.7 3.4 100.0%
Kadence Fox 100% 34.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.6 100.0%
Rachel Steely 100% 117.2 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ayla Cashdollar 3.5 0.0 0.3 35.1 27.0 23.8 8.1 4.4 1.2 0.2 0.0
Kadence Fox 8.2 0.0 0.5 2.6 9.5 12.2 20.0 22.1 20.1 10.3 2.1 0.5 0.1
Rachel Steely 27.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.4 1.9 3.4 6.1 9.0