Roncalli
Boys - Girls
2023 - 2024 - 2025
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State Rank #25
Shelbyville Regional Rank #8
Shelbyville Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish -
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 0.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.




Season RatingPreseason Rating John Cleland Invitational (4k) Marion County All Catholic Invitational Golden Bear Invitational Circle City Conference Nike Twilight Shelbyville Sectional Shelbyville Regional State Finals
Date 8/24 8/31 9/14 9/21 9/28 10/5 10/19 10/26 11/2
Team Rating 399 509 486 363 620 649 544 453 542
Team Adjusted Rating 509 390 363 415 449 362 453 542
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating John Cleland Invitational (4k) Marion County All Catholic Invitational Golden Bear Invitational Circle City Conference Nike Twilight Shelbyville Sectional Shelbyville Regional State Finals
30  Charlie Fletter 11 18:55 19:19 19:12 18:36 18:52 20:32 20:24
103  Tessa Mize 10 19:42 19:28 19:18 19:23 19:27 19:45 19:58 19:52 20:17 19:54 19:34
123  Ava Shirley 11 19:54 19:50 19:48 19:52 19:46 19:31 20:20 19:43 19:36 20:37
386  Marygrace Rykowski 11 21:12 21:49 21:57 21:23 21:32 21:36 21:25 21:14 20:50 21:15
539  Madelyn Kitchens 11 21:42 20:53 23:23 21:02 21:46 21:49 21:04 21:41 22:26
938  Hannah Kazmierzak 12 22:38 22:58 23:18 23:25 22:54 22:49 22:31 22:27 22:25
1,264  Ellie Littell 9 23:23 23:48 24:16 24:10 23:18 23:36 22:31 22:59 23:42
1,287  Claire Meinerding 11 23:27 22:54 23:23 26:44
Ariana Corona 11 23:44 22:48 23:32 23:50 24:11 23:17
Ellie Himes 12 24:07 24:03 23:47 24:08 24:13 24:07
Emma Gzibovskis 11 24:37 24:32 24:06 24:41 25:15 24:22
Clara Kazmierzak 10 25:15 23:42 25:28 25:02 25:58




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.






Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
State Finals 0.0%
Regionals 100% 7.5 214 0.2 1.0 5.7 12.2 23.7 41.4 12.4 3.2 0.4
Sectionals 100% 1.2 57 85.7 12.4 2.0



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Charlie Fletter 100% 32.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.1 1.7 2.6 2.2 2.6 2.7 2.6 100.0% 100.0%
Tessa Mize 85.4% 99.1 85.4% 85.4%
Ava Shirley 59.7% 114.1 59.7% 59.7%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Charlie Fletter 100% 8.0 0.0 0.4 3.8 7.0 10.2 13.6 14.6 12.3 10.3 7.9 5.8 4.7 3.0 2.0 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Tessa Mize 100% 23.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.6 2.5 3.2 3.8 4.3 5.5 5.8 5.9 6.9 6.4 6.8 6.7 100.0%
Ava Shirley 100% 28.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.4 1.7 2.4 3.1 4.1 4.5 4.8 5.5 100.0%
Marygrace Rykowski 100% 85.8 100.0%
Madelyn Kitchens 100% 112.3 100.0%
Hannah Kazmierzak 100% 155.1 99.9%
Ellie Littell 100% 185.6 73.5%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Charlie Fletter 2.5 25.7 53.5 20.0 0.8 0.0
Tessa Mize 5.2 0.0 0.2 6.2 38.6 28.9 15.2 7.0 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ava Shirley 6.5 1.1 9.8 23.7 28.4 19.5 11.0 4.6 1.5 0.4 0.1
Marygrace Rykowski 16.7 0.0 0.3 0.6 2.6 4.2 8.1 11.8 13.2 13.2 11.3 10.7 8.8 6.1 3.9 2.6 1.3 0.8
Madelyn Kitchens 23.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.8 4.4 6.2 8.4 10.6 11.4 12.0 10.2
Hannah Kazmierzak 33.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
Ellie Littell 42.5