All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | | Preseason Rating | |
Valley Cross Kick-Off |
Hamilton County |
Marion Invitational |
Ben Davis Invitational |
Flashrock Invitational |
Hoosier Crossroads Conference |
Nike Twilight |
Brownsburg JV Invite |
Noblesville Sectional |
Shelbyville Regional |
State Finals |
|---|
| Date | | |
8/18 |
8/31 |
9/7 |
9/14 |
9/21 |
9/28 |
10/5 |
10/12 |
10/19 |
10/26 |
11/2 |
| Team Rating |
308 | |
798 |
298 |
278 |
825 |
292 |
312 |
316 |
543 |
274 |
321 |
307 |
| Team Adjusted Rating | | |
308 |
298 |
278 |
308 |
292 |
312 |
316 |
302 |
274 |
321 |
307 |
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating | Preseason Rating |
Valley Cross Kick-Off |
Hamilton County |
Marion Invitational |
Ben Davis Invitational |
Flashrock Invitational |
Hoosier Crossroads Conference |
Nike Twilight |
Brownsburg JV Invite |
Noblesville Sectional |
Shelbyville Regional |
State Finals |
|---|
| 15 |
Alivia Lozier |
10 |
18:33 |
18:51 |
|
18:48 |
18:30 |
|
18:20 |
18:36 |
20:05 |
|
18:25 |
18:36 |
18:29 |
| 145 |
MacKenna Condon |
9 |
20:04 |
|
|
19:57 |
20:04 |
|
20:13 |
19:57 |
19:59 |
|
19:58 |
20:10 |
19:56 |
| 176 |
Gianna Ferreri |
11 |
20:17 |
20:22 |
|
20:21 |
20:09 |
|
20:02 |
20:26 |
20:17 |
|
20:18 |
20:11 |
20:12 |
| 202 |
Sam Foster |
9 |
20:25 |
|
|
20:15 |
20:14 |
|
21:02 |
20:25 |
20:23 |
|
20:04 |
20:53 |
20:27 |
| 225 |
Carly Davis |
9 |
20:34 |
|
|
20:42 |
20:44 |
|
20:23 |
20:39 |
20:14 |
|
20:16 |
20:33 |
21:00 |
| 236 |
Ella Bozarth |
10 |
20:37 |
20:46 |
|
20:24 |
20:11 |
|
20:51 |
20:35 |
20:09 |
|
21:15 |
|
|
| 270 |
Jordyn Landrum |
11 |
20:44 |
20:40 |
|
20:31 |
20:32 |
|
20:24 |
20:54 |
21:05 |
20:32 |
|
20:52 |
20:41 |
| 272 |
Emily Loiselle |
12 |
20:44 |
20:27 |
|
20:30 |
20:49 |
|
21:12 |
20:36 |
20:45 |
20:28 |
|
20:41 |
20:46 |
| 334 |
Maggie Naas |
10 |
20:58 |
19:47 |
|
21:57 |
20:42 |
|
21:27 |
20:48 |
19:52 |
|
21:04 |
|
|
| 409 |
Lina Abriani |
12 |
21:16 |
21:54 |
|
21:23 |
20:52 |
|
21:28 |
21:24 |
21:06 |
21:08 |
|
|
|
| 414 |
Ena Durbin |
12 |
21:18 |
21:02 |
|
20:40 |
20:49 |
|
21:38 |
20:59 |
21:21 |
22:00 |
|
|
|
| 507 |
Sam Plummer |
10 |
21:36 |
21:58 |
21:44 |
21:49 |
21:37 |
21:33 |
20:55 |
21:16 |
22:15 |
21:37 |
|
|
|
| 611 |
Maryn Babb |
12 |
21:52 |
21:56 |
22:25 |
22:20 |
22:22 |
21:56 |
21:36 |
21:43 |
21:40 |
21:28 |
|
|
|
| 659 |
Izzy McCulloch |
11 |
21:59 |
21:31 |
21:43 |
21:47 |
22:13 |
22:01 |
21:37 |
21:42 |
22:05 |
22:32 |
|
|
|
| 661 |
Lyla Osborn |
10 |
22:00 |
22:24 |
21:47 |
22:20 |
22:00 |
22:17 |
21:54 |
21:44 |
22:11 |
21:41 |
|
|
|
| 711 |
Claudia Southworth |
10 |
22:06 |
22:32 |
21:59 |
22:23 |
22:36 |
21:47 |
21:42 |
22:03 |
22:22 |
21:53 |
|
|
|
| 739 |
Charlotte Isaacs |
9 |
22:10 |
|
22:46 |
22:52 |
|
|
|
22:51 |
21:18 |
21:37 |
|
|
|
| 776 |
Vivienne Lyon |
9 |
22:15 |
|
23:26 |
23:13 |
22:28 |
22:52 |
22:57 |
21:20 |
21:13 |
21:15 |
|
|
|
| 788 |
Eliana Colon |
11 |
22:17 |
|
21:58 |
22:11 |
22:25 |
22:19 |
21:55 |
21:59 |
22:48 |
22:21 |
|
|
|
| 862 |
Olivia Barnett |
11 |
22:28 |
22:06 |
21:54 |
22:26 |
22:32 |
22:21 |
22:26 |
22:42 |
22:17 |
22:34 |
|
|
|
| 985 |
Madison Samreta |
12 |
22:44 |
22:34 |
22:57 |
22:51 |
22:40 |
22:58 |
22:54 |
22:25 |
22:33 |
22:38 |
|
|
|
| 1,156 |
Zoe Burgei |
11 |
23:08 |
|
22:55 |
22:57 |
23:15 |
23:10 |
23:53 |
23:10 |
23:03 |
22:40 |
|
|
|
| 1,203 |
Jill Ewing |
10 |
23:15 |
|
23:27 |
24:16 |
23:18 |
22:24 |
23:15 |
26:36 |
23:13 |
23:05 |
|
|
|
| 1,236 |
Cecilia Schmidt |
12 |
23:20 |
22:13 |
22:50 |
|
23:36 |
23:08 |
23:22 |
23:25 |
23:13 |
24:59 |
|
|
|
| 1,297 |
Carly Herring |
9 |
23:28 |
|
|
23:13 |
23:17 |
23:17 |
23:44 |
23:06 |
23:19 |
24:19 |
|
|
|
|
Ava Britton-Heitz |
12 |
23:39 |
22:50 |
24:12 |
22:35 |
22:53 |
23:56 |
22:59 |
23:54 |
23:56 |
23:55 |
|
|
|
|
Ava Brandau |
11 |
23:42 |
24:22 |
24:46 |
23:58 |
23:54 |
23:26 |
23:48 |
23:26 |
23:48 |
23:12 |
|
|
|
|
Brooke Bognar |
9 |
23:42 |
|
|
23:22 |
23:12 |
23:16 |
|
23:34 |
24:25 |
24:22 |
|
|
|
|
Kiernan Harrington |
11 |
23:48 |
24:22 |
24:28 |
23:28 |
23:35 |
23:37 |
24:03 |
24:01 |
23:38 |
23:38 |
|
|
|
|
Delaney Curtis |
11 |
23:57 |
23:03 |
23:49 |
23:33 |
23:38 |
23:52 |
23:25 |
23:55 |
24:41 |
24:21 |
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| State Finals |
100% |
16.7 |
408 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
1.0 |
1.6 |
2.6 |
4.4 |
8.0 |
11.4 |
14.6 |
15.8 |
13.6 |
12.0 |
7.2 |
3.9 |
1.9 |
0.7 |
0.1 |
|
| Regionals |
100% |
4.2 |
145 |
0.3 |
2.9 |
19.6 |
50.0 |
17.1 |
6.4 |
2.9 |
0.7 |
0.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
3.1 |
86 |
1.0 |
21.6 |
54.7 |
15.4 |
7.1 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Alivia Lozier |
100% |
16.2 |
|
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
0.9 |
1.8 |
3.4 |
4.0 |
4.4 |
4.7 |
5.2 |
4.8 |
5.2 |
4.6 |
4.5 |
4.8 |
4.3 |
4.1 |
3.9 |
4.0 |
3.4 |
3.4 |
3.1 |
2.5 |
2.7 |
|
100.0% |
| MacKenna Condon |
100% |
138.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
31.0% |
| Gianna Ferreri |
100% |
160.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9.6% |
| Sam Foster |
100% |
173.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.1% |
| Carly Davis |
100% |
188.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.0% |
| Ella Bozarth |
100% |
190.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.7% |
| Jordyn Landrum |
100% |
199.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.2% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Alivia Lozier |
100% |
4.4 |
0.0 |
1.4 |
5.6 |
33.2 |
22.2 |
15.2 |
9.5 |
5.7 |
3.2 |
1.7 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| MacKenna Condon |
100% |
32.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
1.4 |
2.1 |
2.8 |
3.2 |
|
100.0% |
| Gianna Ferreri |
100% |
38.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
|
100.0% |
| Sam Foster |
100% |
43.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
|
0.1 |
|
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
|
100.0% |
| Carly Davis |
100% |
49.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.1 |
|
100.0% |
| Ella Bozarth |
100% |
52.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Jordyn Landrum |
100% |
58.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Alivia Lozier |
2.8 |
1.5 |
7.0 |
55.1 |
27.0 |
5.7 |
2.5 |
0.9 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| MacKenna Condon |
16.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
1.6 |
3.5 |
6.5 |
10.0 |
11.3 |
13.6 |
12.5 |
12.1 |
9.3 |
6.0 |
4.0 |
2.8 |
1.9 |
1.1 |
0.7 |
| Gianna Ferreri |
19.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
1.4 |
2.7 |
4.8 |
6.8 |
8.2 |
10.3 |
11.9 |
11.4 |
8.8 |
7.8 |
6.4 |
4.9 |
4.3 |
| Sam Foster |
21.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
1.6 |
2.9 |
4.4 |
5.9 |
8.3 |
10.5 |
10.4 |
9.5 |
8.2 |
7.5 |
6.2 |
| Carly Davis |
25.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
1.2 |
2.2 |
2.8 |
5.2 |
6.6 |
7.6 |
8.0 |
7.9 |
7.7 |
| Ella Bozarth |
25.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
4.8 |
6.4 |
7.6 |
7.5 |
7.8 |
| Jordyn Landrum |
28.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.8 |
1.7 |
2.7 |
3.1 |
3.9 |
5.5 |
5.8 |
|
