Atlantic 10
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
VCU 46%   12   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +10.9 53 B +5 59 B+ +6 41 0 2 0 1
Saint Louis 39%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +9.7 60 B+ +6 51 B +4 78 0 2 0 1
Dayton 22%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +8.3 70 B- +3 87 B+ +5 54 0 2 0 1
George Washington 11%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +5.1 98 B- +3 100 B- +2 96 0 2 0 1
George Mason 7%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +4.8 100 C+ +2 106 B- +2 94 0 2 0 1
Fordham 4%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +2.8 116 C+ +1 133 C+ +2 106 0 2 0 1
Davidson 3%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +2.3 120 C+ +2 122 C+ +1 131 0 2 0 1
Duquesne 4%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +2.2 121 C+ +1 123 C+ +1 132 0 2 0 1
Richmond 4%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +1.9 129 C+ +2 120 C +0 147 0 2 0 1
Saint Joseph's 4%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +1.9 130 C- -1 203 B- +3 85 0 2 0 1
Rhode Island 4%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +1.5 134 C +0 147 C+ +1 119 0 2 0 1
St. Bonaventure 3%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +0.9 140 C +0 154 C+ +1 128 0 2 0 1
Loyola Chicago 2%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +0.3 148 C +0 155 C +0 151 0 2 0 1
La Salle 1%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -1.0 166 C +0 153 C- -1 198 0 2 0 1


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Mon, Nov 2 116 Fordham 58 7 Kansas 77 95%   
Mon, Nov 2 6 Houston 77 166 La Salle 53 97%   
Mon, Nov 2 230 Arkansas Little Rock 62 53 Virginia Commonwealth 80 94%   
Mon, Nov 2 259 Lehigh 65 60 Saint Louis 83 94%   
Mon, Nov 2 120 Davidson 68 142 Washington St. 69 55%   
Mon, Nov 2 100 George Mason 74 277 Maryland Baltimore Co. 59 90%   
Mon, Nov 2 98 George Washington 77 282 Navy 62 91%   
Mon, Nov 2 70 Dayton 80 333 NJIT 59 97%   
Mon, Nov 2 140 St. Bonaventure 75 267 Youngstown St. 65 82%   
Mon, Nov 2 129 Richmond 74 283 UNC Asheville 63 86%   
Mon, Nov 2 148 Loyola Chicago 73 330 The Citadel 60 89%   
Tue, Nov 3 121 Duquesne 79 269 Purdue Fort Wayne 68 85%   
Tue, Nov 3 350 Holy Cross 59 134 Rhode Island 76 93%   
Wed, Nov 4 211 Longwood 66 130 Saint Joseph's 74 78%   
Thu, Nov 5 148 Loyola Chicago 76 315 West Georgia 64 87%   
Thu, Nov 5 116 Fordham 74 351 Stonehill 56 94%   
Fri, Nov 6 36 Missouri 78 60 Saint Louis 75 64%   
Fri, Nov 6 358 Coppin St. 56 100 George Mason 77 97%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
VCU 3 39% 27% 9% 3% 39 21 13 9 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0
Saint Louis 3 34% 23% 8% 3% 34 22 14 9 7 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0
Dayton 4 18% 10% 5% 2% 18 17 14 12 9 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 0
George Washington 6 10% 6% 3% 1% 10 12 12 11 10 9 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 2
George Mason 7 4% 2% 2% 1% 4 7 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 3 3
Duquesne 8 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 6 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5
Rhode Island 8 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 6 7 8 9 8 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 5
Saint Joseph's 8 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 5 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6
Richmond 8 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 5 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6
Fordham 8 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 4 5 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 6
St. Bonaventure 8 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 4 5 6 7 7 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 8
Loyola Chicago 9 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 3 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 11 11
Davidson 9 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 9
La Salle 10 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 11 11 12 13

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
VCU 12 - 6 21 - 8 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 9 12 15 16 15 11 7 3 1
Saint Louis 12 - 6 21 - 9 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 16 16 13 10 5 2 0
Dayton 11 - 7 21 - 11 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 11 14 15 14 12 8 4 2 0 0
George Washington 10 - 8 19 - 12 0 0 0 1 2 4 5 8 11 13 14 13 11 8 5 3 1 0 0
George Mason 9 - 8 19 - 11 0 0 0 1 3 5 8 12 14 15 14 11 8 4 2 1 0 0
Duquesne 8 - 10 17 - 13 0 0 1 2 5 8 11 13 14 13 12 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Rhode Island 8 - 10 16 - 14 0 0 1 2 5 8 11 13 14 13 12 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Saint Joseph's 8 - 10 16 - 13 0 0 1 2 5 8 11 13 14 13 11 8 6 3 2 1 0 0 0
Richmond 8 - 10 16 - 15 0 0 1 3 5 8 11 13 14 13 11 9 5 3 2 1 0 0 0
Fordham 8 - 8 16 - 12 0 0 1 3 6 9 13 15 14 14 11 7 4 2 1 0 0
St. Bonaventure 8 - 10 16 - 15 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 14 14 12 10 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0
Loyola Chicago 7 - 11 13 - 16 0 1 3 5 9 12 14 14 13 10 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0
Davidson 7 - 8 15 - 13 0 1 2 5 8 12 15 16 15 12 8 5 2 1 0 0
La Salle 7 - 11 12 - 17 0 1 3 6 10 13 15 15 13 10 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
VCU 46% 26% 27% 12 Bubble - Out 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 7 7 14 1 54
Saint Louis 39% 22% 22% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 2 3 4 6 6 13 1 61
Dayton 22% 14% 10% Likely Out 1 1 2 3 4 11 1 78
George Washington 11% 7% 4% Likely Out 1 1 1 6 1 89
George Mason 7% 6% 2% Likely Out 1 1 4 1 93
Fordham 4% 3% 1% Likely Out 0 0 2 1 96
Davidson 3% 3% 1% Likely Out 0 0 2 1 97
Duquesne 4% 3% 1% Likely Out 0 0 2 1 0 96
Richmond 4% 4% 1% Likely Out 0 0 2 1 96
Saint Joseph's 4% 3% 1% Likely Out 0 2 1 96
Rhode Island 4% 3% 1% Likely Out 0 0 2 1 0 96
St. Bonaventure 3% 3% 0% Negligible 0 0 1 1 0 97
Loyola Chicago 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 0 98
La Salle 1% 1% 0% Negligible 1 0 0 0 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.6 52 41 7 0
1st Round 100% 1.4 0 64 33 3 0
2nd Round 46% 0.5 54 40 6 0
Sweet Sixteen 18% 0.2 82 17 1
Elite Eight 6% 0.1 94 6 0
Final Four 2% 0.0 98 2 0
Final Game 1% 0.0 99 1 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100 0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
VCU 46% 11% 41% 19% 8% 3% 1% 1%
Saint Louis 39% 10% 34% 15% 5% 2% 1%
Dayton 22% 6% 19% 7% 2% 1%
George Washington 11% 2% 10% 3% 1%
George Mason 7% 1% 6% 2% 1%
Fordham 4% 1% 4% 1%
Davidson 3% 1% 3% 1%
Duquesne 4% 4% 1%
Richmond 4% 1% 4% 1%
Saint Joseph's 4% 1% 4% 1%
Rhode Island 4% 1% 4% 1%
St. Bonaventure 3% 3% 1%
Loyola Chicago 2% 2%
La Salle 1% 1%