Big 12
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Houston 99%   2   Likely In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +20.0 4 A- +9 22 A+ +11 3 +8 47 0 1
Kansas 99%   1   Likely In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +19.5 6 A +10 9 A +9 6 +12 19 0 1
Arizona 92%   4   Likely In 0 - 1 0 - 0 +18.3 8 A- +9 20 A +9 7 +4 92 0 1
Texas Tech 90%   4   Likely In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +17.6 11 A +11 6 A- +7 25 +2 112 0 1
Iowa St. 58%   10   Bubble - In 0 - 1 0 - 0 +16.1 21 A- +8 34 A +8 9 -6 314 0 1
BYU 97%   5   Likely In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +15.8 24 A +11 4 B +4 63 +26 6 0 1
Cincinnati 78%   8   Bubble - In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +14.0 31 B+ +7 47 A- +7 19 +7 54 0 1
Baylor 69%   9   Bubble - In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +13.6 33 A- +8 27 B+ +5 48 +3 100 0 1
TCU 58%   11   Bubble - In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +12.5 40 B+ +6 51 B+ +6 31 +1 128 0 1
West Virginia 59%   10   Bubble - In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +12.4 41 B +6 58 A- +7 26 0 265 0 1
Oklahoma St. 56%   11   Bubble - In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +11.2 51 B+ +7 39 B +4 66 +1 117 0 1
Arizona St. 36%   Bubble - Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +8.8 65 B +5 64 B- +4 78 +9 43 0 1
Colorado 29%   Bubble - Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +7.7 77 B +5 73 B- +3 87 +4 91 0 1
Central Florida 33%   Bubble - Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +7.7 78 B +5 62 B- +2 100 +6 69 0 1
Kansas St. 10%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +5.8 99 B- +4 89 B- +2 104 0 137 0 1
Utah 12%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +5.0 101 C+ +2 121 B- +3 86 +5 73 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Mon, Nov 2 8 Arizona 75 18 UCLA 84   
Mon, Nov 2 21 Iowa St. 76 81 Memphis 80   
Mon, Nov 2 24 BYU 94 34 Ohio St. 83   
Mon, Nov 2 124 Fordham 65 6 Kansas 95   
Mon, Nov 2 4 Houston 94 177 La Salle 55   
Mon, Nov 2 229 Florida Gulf Coast 95 78 Central Florida 96   
Mon, Nov 2 198 American 53 31 Cincinnati 79   
Mon, Nov 2 302 Jackson St. 42 11 Texas Tech 76   
Mon, Nov 2 65 Arizona St. 75 163 East Tennessee St. 65   
Mon, Nov 2 241 Long Beach St. 63 101 Utah 66   
Mon, Nov 2 33 Baylor 87 291 Northwestern St. 65   
Mon, Nov 2 317 Lindenwood 59 40 TCU 98   
Mon, Nov 2 51 Oklahoma St. 91 310 Incarnate Word 60   
Mon, Nov 2 331 Niagara 46 41 West Virginia 91   
Mon, Nov 2 273 Abilene Christian 59 77 Colorado 94   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Tue, Nov 3 99 Kansas St. 84 231 South Dakota St. 71 88%   
Thu, Nov 5 8 Arizona 94 172 Cal Poly 71 97%   
Thu, Nov 5 212 Bethune-Cookman 61 11 Texas Tech 85 98%   
Thu, Nov 5 31 Cincinnati 77 200 Green Bay 58 96%   
Thu, Nov 5 185 Towson 60 101 Utah 70 83%   
Fri, Nov 6 6 Kansas 82 161 Middle Tennessee 58 97%   
Fri, Nov 6 21 Iowa St. 84 238 Southern Miss 60 98%   
Fri, Nov 6 51 Oklahoma St. 92 168 Queens 76 92%   
Fri, Nov 6 24 BYU 90 288 Nebraska Omaha 63 98%   
Fri, Nov 6 78 Central Florida 77 152 Yale 67 84%   
Fri, Nov 6 65 Arizona St. 83 190 Northern Colorado 69 90%   
Fri, Nov 6 271 Stetson 58 41 West Virginia 79 97%   
Fri, Nov 6 296 Southern 61 40 TCU 84 97%   
Fri, Nov 6 214 Cal St. Northridge 78 99 Kansas St. 90 87%   
Fri, Nov 6 362 Arkansas Pine Bluff 59 33 Baylor 91 99%   
Sat, Nov 7 77 Colorado 74 75 San Diego St. 75 51%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th
Kansas 4 27% 16% 8% 3% 27 19 14 10 8 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0
Houston 4 27% 17% 7% 3% 27 18 13 10 8 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0
Texas Tech 5 20% 12% 5% 3% 20 15 12 10 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 0
Arizona 5 15% 8% 5% 2% 15 14 12 11 10 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 0
BYU 6 9% 4% 3% 2% 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1
Iowa St. 7 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Baylor 7 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Cincinnati 8 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 5 4 3 1
TCU 8 5% 2% 2% 1% 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 1
West Virginia 8 5% 3% 2% 1% 5 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 2
Oklahoma St. 8 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 5 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 2
Arizona St. 11 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 2 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 10 8
Colorado 11 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 6 6 8 9 10 10 11 11 10
Central Florida 11 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 11 9
Kansas St. 13 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 5 5 7 9 11 14 16 20
Utah 13 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 5 6 7 9 11 13 17 20

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Kansas 12 - 6 22 - 8 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 11 14 17 16 14 9 4 1 0
Houston 12 - 6 23 - 7 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 11 14 16 16 13 9 4 1 0
Texas Tech 11 - 7 20 - 9 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 12 15 15 14 10 6 3 1 0
Arizona 11 - 7 20 - 10 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 8 11 14 16 15 13 8 5 2 0 0
BYU 10 - 8 21 - 9 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 11 14 15 15 12 9 5 2 1 0 0
Iowa St. 10 - 8 19 - 11 0 0 1 2 3 6 9 13 15 15 14 10 7 4 2 1 0 0
Baylor 9 - 9 18 - 11 0 0 1 2 4 6 10 13 15 15 13 10 7 4 2 1 0 0
Cincinnati 9 - 9 21 - 11 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 15 14 12 9 6 3 1 0 0 0
TCU 9 - 9 19 - 11 0 0 1 2 5 7 11 13 15 14 12 9 6 3 1 0 0 0
West Virginia 9 - 9 19 - 11 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 15 14 12 9 6 3 1 1 0 0
Oklahoma St. 9 - 9 19 - 13 0 0 0 1 3 6 9 12 14 15 13 11 7 5 2 1 0 0 0
Arizona St. 7 - 11 19 - 14 0 1 2 5 9 13 15 15 14 11 8 5 2 1 0 0 0
Colorado 7 - 11 16 - 15 0 1 3 6 10 13 14 15 13 10 7 4 3 1 0 0 0 0
Central Florida 7 - 11 17 - 15 0 1 3 6 9 13 15 15 13 10 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 0
Kansas St. 6 - 12 14 - 16 1 3 6 11 14 16 15 12 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Utah 6 - 12 16 - 16 1 2 6 11 15 16 15 13 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Houston 99% 18% 98% 2 Likely In 26 20 16 11 7 6 4 3 2 1 2 1
Kansas 99% 18% 99% 1 Likely In 26 19 16 12 7 6 4 3 2 1 1 1
Arizona 92% 11% 91% 4 Likely In 7 12 13 12 10 9 7 6 4 4 6 1 8
Texas Tech 90% 14% 88% 4 Likely In 8 15 12 10 10 9 7 5 3 4 6 1 10
Iowa St. 58% 5% 55% 10 Bubble - In 1 2 3 4 6 6 6 6 5 7 12 1 42
BYU 97% 7% 97% 5 Likely In 18 5 9 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 2 1 3
Cincinnati 78% 5% 77% 8 Bubble - In 3 3 5 7 8 7 8 8 7 7 13 3 22
Baylor 69% 5% 68% 9 Bubble - In 1 3 5 5 7 7 7 6 6 7 12 3 31
TCU 58% 4% 56% 11 Bubble - In 1 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 5 7 13 3 42
West Virginia 59% 5% 57% 10 Bubble - In 1 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 5 6 12 2 41
Oklahoma St. 56% 3% 54% 11 Bubble - In 1 1 2 3 4 4 5 6 6 6 13 4 44
Arizona St. 36% 1% 36% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 2 3 5 5 11 6 64
Colorado 29% 1% 28% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 9 3 71
Central Florida 33% 1% 32% Bubble - Out 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 10 4 67
Kansas St. 10% 0% 10% Likely Out 0 1 1 1 2 4 1 90
Utah 12% 0% 12% Likely Out 0 1 1 2 4 2 88

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 9.7 0 0 3 12 26 32 20 6 1 0
1st Round 100% 8.7 0 0 3 12 27 32 19 6 1 0
2nd Round 100% 6.0 0 0 3 10 22 30 22 10 3 0 0
Sweet Sixteen 99% 3.2 1 7 21 31 25 11 3 0 0
Elite Eight 88% 1.6 12 35 34 16 3 0 0
Final Four 63% 0.8 37 45 16 2 0
Final Game 38% 0.4 62 34 4
Champion 21% 0.2 79 21

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Houston 99% 3% 97% 83% 53% 31% 17% 10% 5%
Kansas 99% 2% 98% 83% 52% 30% 16% 9% 5%
Arizona 92% 9% 87% 65% 37% 19% 10% 5% 2%
Texas Tech 90% 10% 85% 66% 38% 21% 11% 6% 3%
Iowa St. 58% 18% 49% 31% 16% 8% 4% 2% 1%
BYU 97% 3% 96% 66% 33% 16% 7% 3% 1%
Cincinnati 78% 19% 69% 42% 20% 9% 4% 2% 1%
Baylor 69% 19% 60% 37% 18% 8% 4% 2% 1%
TCU 58% 19% 48% 29% 13% 6% 3% 1% 1%
West Virginia 59% 19% 50% 31% 15% 7% 3% 2% 1%
Oklahoma St. 56% 20% 45% 25% 11% 5% 2% 1%
Arizona St. 36% 17% 27% 12% 4% 1%
Colorado 29% 14% 21% 10% 4% 1% 1%
Central Florida 33% 15% 25% 12% 5% 2% 1%
Kansas St. 10% 6% 7% 3% 1%
Utah 12% 7% 8% 3% 1%