Big East
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Connecticut 97%   1   Likely In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +20.0 4 A +9 13 A+ +11 3 0 2 0 1
St. John's 92%   3   Likely In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +17.2 16 A- +9 24 A +9 10 0 2 0 1
Marquette 72%   9   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +13.7 33 B+ +7 44 A- +7 21 0 2 0 1
Villanova 64%   10   Bubble - In 0 - 1 0 - 0 +13.1 37 A- +8 37 B+ +5 50 -5 365 0 1
Providence 66%   10   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +12.7 40 B+ +7 48 B+ +6 33 0 2 0 1
Creighton 65%   10   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +12.5 44 A- +8 36 B +4 62 0 2 0 1
Xavier 55%   11   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +10.7 55 B+ +7 45 B +4 73 0 2 0 1
DePaul 29%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +8.7 67 B- +3 95 B+ +6 36 0 2 0 1
Georgetown 26%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +8.7 68 B- +4 76 B +5 58 0 2 0 1
Seton Hall 30%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +8.0 74 C+ +3 104 B+ +5 45 0 2 0 1
Butler 12%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +5.7 93 B- +4 85 B- +2 99 0 2 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Sun, Nov 1 72 Notre Dame 74 37 Villanova 72   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Mon, Nov 2 190 Monmouth 61 16 St. John's 83 97%   
Mon, Nov 2 353 Gardner-Webb 51 4 Connecticut 86 100%   
Mon, Nov 2 33 Marquette 82 302 Mercyhurst 57 98%   
Mon, Nov 2 44 Creighton 88 292 UMKC 65 97%   
Mon, Nov 2 299 Mount St. Mary's 64 55 Xavier 85 97%   
Mon, Nov 2 331 Maine 57 40 Providence 83 98%   
Mon, Nov 2 293 St. Peter's 55 74 Seton Hall 73 95%   
Mon, Nov 2 67 DePaul 80 315 West Georgia 59 96%   
Mon, Nov 2 68 Georgetown 82 344 Loyola Maryland 59 97%   
Mon, Nov 2 93 Butler 81 337 Lafayette 61 95%   
Wed, Nov 4 93 Butler 78 339 Fairleigh Dickinson 59 95%   
Thu, Nov 5 67 DePaul 76 91 South Florida 71 71%   
Thu, Nov 5 44 Creighton 87 320 Le Moyne 63 98%   
Thu, Nov 5 251 LIU Brooklyn 59 74 Seton Hall 75 92%   
Fri, Nov 6 15 Michigan 70 4 Connecticut 73 61%   
Fri, Nov 6 187 Eastern Michigan 66 55 Xavier 82 92%   
Fri, Nov 6 274 Detroit Mercy 64 33 Marquette 87 97%   
Fri, Nov 6 350 Holy Cross 55 37 Villanova 83 99%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Connecticut 2 44% 32% 10% 2% 44 22 13 9 5 3 2 1 1 0 0
St. John's 3 30% 20% 8% 2% 30 22 15 11 8 6 4 3 1 1 0
Villanova 5 12% 7% 4% 1% 12 14 14 13 12 10 9 7 5 3 2
Marquette 5 10% 6% 3% 1% 10 13 14 13 12 10 9 7 6 4 2
Providence 5 8% 5% 3% 1% 8 11 12 12 13 11 10 8 7 5 3
Creighton 5 8% 4% 3% 1% 8 11 12 12 12 11 10 9 7 5 3
Xavier 6 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 8 10 11 11 11 11 11 9 7 5
DePaul 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 3 5 7 8 10 12 13 14 14 12
Seton Hall 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 4 5 7 8 10 11 12 14 14 13
Georgetown 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 3 5 6 8 10 12 13 14 14 13
Butler 9 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 2 3 5 6 8 11 15 20 28

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Connecticut 14 - 6 23 - 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 4 7 11 13 16 15 13 9 5 2 0
St. John's 13 - 7 21 - 9 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 7 10 13 14 14 12 10 6 2 1 0
Villanova 11 - 9 18 - 13 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 10 12 14 13 11 9 6 3 2 1 0 0
Marquette 11 - 9 20 - 12 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 8 11 13 13 13 11 8 5 3 1 0 0 0
Providence 10 - 10 18 - 12 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 7 10 12 13 14 12 10 7 4 2 1 0 0
Creighton 10 - 10 18 - 12 0 0 0 1 1 3 4 7 10 12 14 13 12 10 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
Xavier 10 - 10 19 - 13 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 12 13 13 12 10 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0
DePaul 8 - 12 17 - 15 0 0 1 3 5 9 11 13 14 13 10 8 6 3 2 1 0 0 0
Seton Hall 8 - 12 16 - 15 0 0 1 3 6 9 11 13 13 12 10 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
Georgetown 8 - 12 16 - 15 0 0 1 3 6 9 12 13 14 13 10 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0
Butler 6 - 14 15 - 17 0 2 4 8 11 14 14 13 11 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Connecticut 97% 28% 95% 1 Likely In 20 21 14 11 8 6 5 3 2 2 2 3
St. John's 92% 20% 91% 3 Likely In 13 14 12 11 9 8 6 5 4 4 5 1 8
Marquette 72% 9% 69% 9 Bubble - In 3 4 5 6 7 7 7 7 6 8 12 2 28
Villanova 64% 10% 59% 10 Bubble - In 1 3 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 8 10 1 36
Providence 66% 8% 63% 10 Bubble - In 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 12 3 34
Creighton 65% 8% 62% 10 Bubble - In 2 2 4 5 6 6 7 7 6 8 11 2 35
Xavier 55% 6% 52% 11 Bubble - In 1 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 7 12 2 45
DePaul 29% 3% 27% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 2 3 3 5 9 2 71
Georgetown 26% 3% 24% Bubble - Out 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 9 2 74
Seton Hall 30% 3% 28% Bubble - Out 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 5 9 2 70
Butler 12% 1% 11% Likely Out 1 1 1 2 5 1 88

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 6.1 0 0 6 23 37 26 7 1 0
1st Round 100% 5.3 0 3 18 35 30 12 2 0
2nd Round 100% 3.5 0 3 14 32 32 15 3 0 0
Sweet Sixteen 92% 1.9 8 30 37 20 5 1 0
Elite Eight 69% 1.0 31 45 20 4 0 0
Final Four 43% 0.5 57 37 6 0
Final Game 25% 0.3 75 23 1
Champion 13% 0.1 87 13

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Connecticut 97% 4% 95% 80% 52% 31% 18% 10% 6%
St. John's 92% 8% 89% 69% 40% 22% 12% 6% 4%
Marquette 72% 18% 63% 40% 20% 9% 4% 2% 1%
Villanova 64% 16% 56% 36% 18% 9% 5% 2% 1%
Providence 66% 19% 57% 35% 16% 7% 3% 2% 1%
Creighton 65% 17% 56% 34% 16% 7% 3% 1% 1%
Xavier 55% 18% 46% 27% 12% 5% 2% 1%
DePaul 29% 13% 22% 10% 4% 2% 1%
Georgetown 26% 13% 19% 9% 4% 1% 1%
Seton Hall 30% 13% 23% 11% 4% 2% 1%
Butler 12% 7% 8% 3% 1%