Metro Atlantic Athletic
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Merrimack 23%   16   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -1.1 168 C- -2 223 C+ +1 126 0 2 0 1
Iona 12%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -3.8 228 C- -2 239 C- -2 216 0 2 0 1
Fairfield 11%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -3.8 229 C- -3 248 C- -1 205 0 2 0 1
Quinnipiac 12%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.2 234 D+ -4 275 C- -1 183 0 2 0 1
Siena 10%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -5.1 253 C- -3 249 D+ -3 259 0 2 0 1
Marist 9%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -5.1 254 D -5 323 C +0 149 0 2 0 1
Saint Peter's 6%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -7.5 293 D -5 318 D+ -2 248 0 2 0 1
Mount St. Mary's 5%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -7.8 299 D -5 324 D+ -2 254 0 2 0 1
Sacred Heart 5%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -8.2 307 D+ -3 263 D- -5 343 0 2 0 1
Niagara 3%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -9.2 319 D+ -4 290 D- -5 341 0 2 0 1
Manhattan 2%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -10.3 334 D -5 313 D- -5 344 0 2 0 1
Canisius 1%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -11.3 345 D -4 299 F+ -7 363 0 2 0 1
Rider 1%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -13.3 357 D- -7 350 D- -6 353 0 2 0 1


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Mon, Nov 2 8 Michigan St. 84 234 Quinnipiac 58 98%   
Mon, Nov 2 299 Mount St. Mary's 64 55 Xavier 85 97%   
Mon, Nov 2 319 Niagara 50 49 West Virginia 74 98%   
Mon, Nov 2 293 St. Peter's 55 74 Seton Hall 73 95%   
Mon, Nov 2 76 Pittsburgh 77 357 Rider 53 98%   
Mon, Nov 2 228 Iona 70 185 Vermont 69 54%   
Mon, Nov 2 345 Canisius 61 96 Penn St. 80 96%   
Mon, Nov 2 256 Appalachian St. 59 168 Merrimack 63 66%   
Mon, Nov 2 312 Dartmouth 64 254 Marist 71 73%   
Mon, Nov 2 317 Bryant 64 253 Siena 65 53%   
Tue, Nov 3 21 Kentucky 89 334 Manhattan 60 99%   
Thu, Nov 5 229 Fairfield 68 185 Vermont 67 54%   
Thu, Nov 5 168 Merrimack 73 318 Umass Lowell 62 85%   
Thu, Nov 5 254 Marist 68 277 Maryland Baltimore Co. 64 66%   
Thu, Nov 5 317 Bryant 65 234 Quinnipiac 72 77%   
Thu, Nov 5 228 Iona 77 333 NJIT 68 81%   
Thu, Nov 5 331 Maine 65 307 Sacred Heart 70 68%   
Thu, Nov 5 348 Binghamton 63 293 St. Peter's 70 75%   
Thu, Nov 5 334 Manhattan 70 323 Albany 68 58%   
Thu, Nov 5 329 New Hampshire 68 357 Rider 67 51%   
Fri, Nov 6 344 Loyola Maryland 68 299 Mount St. Mary's 74 73%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Merrimack 3 35% 25% 8% 2% 35 19 12 9 7 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 0
Iona 5 16% 10% 5% 2% 16 15 13 11 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Quinnipiac 5 15% 10% 4% 2% 15 14 13 11 10 8 8 6 5 4 3 2 1
Fairfield 5 15% 9% 4% 2% 15 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 5 4 4 2 2
Marist 5 12% 7% 3% 1% 12 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2
Siena 5 11% 7% 3% 1% 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 7 5 4 3 2
Mount St. Mary's 7 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 7 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 4
Saint Peter's 7 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 5
Sacred Heart 7 5% 3% 1% 1% 5 6 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 5
Niagara 8 3% 1% 1% 0% 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 8
Manhattan 9 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 3 3 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 13
Canisius 9 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 13 14 17
Rider 10 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 12 14 16 17

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Merrimack 13 - 7 19 - 11 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 4 7 9 12 13 14 13 11 7 4 1 0
Iona 12 - 8 17 - 15 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 6 9 11 13 13 12 10 8 5 3 1 0 0
Quinnipiac 12 - 8 16 - 14 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 7 9 12 13 13 12 10 7 5 2 1 0 0
Fairfield 11 - 9 17 - 13 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 7 9 12 13 13 12 10 7 5 2 1 0 0
Marist 11 - 9 15 - 14 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 11 12 13 13 11 9 6 3 2 1 0 0
Siena 11 - 9 15 - 17 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 8 11 13 13 12 11 8 5 3 2 1 0 0
Mount St. Mary's 10 - 10 13 - 17 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 11 13 13 12 10 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0
Saint Peter's 10 - 10 13 - 16 0 0 1 3 4 7 9 11 12 13 12 10 7 5 3 1 1 0 0
Sacred Heart 9 - 11 13 - 18 0 0 0 1 2 5 7 10 12 13 13 11 9 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
Niagara 9 - 11 12 - 18 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 12 13 13 12 9 7 5 3 1 1 0 0 0
Manhattan 8 - 12 12 - 19 0 0 1 4 6 9 12 13 14 12 10 7 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
Canisius 7 - 13 10 - 21 0 1 2 4 8 10 13 14 13 11 9 6 4 2 1 1 0 0 0
Rider 7 - 13 9 - 21 0 1 2 5 8 12 14 15 14 11 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Merrimack 23% 23% 0% 16 Negligible 1 4 11 7 77
Iona 12% 12% 0% Negligible 1 4 7 88
Fairfield 11% 11% 0% Negligible 1 4 6 89
Quinnipiac 12% 12% 0% Negligible 1 4 6 88
Siena 10% 10% 0% Negligible 1 3 6 90
Marist 9% 9% 0% Negligible 3 6 91
Saint Peter's 6% 6% 0% Negligible 1 4 95
Mount St. Mary's 5% 5% 0% Negligible 1 4 95
Sacred Heart 5% 5% 0% Negligible 1 4 95
Niagara 3% 3% 0% Negligible 0 3 97
Manhattan 2% 2% 0% Negligible 2 98
Canisius 1% 1% 0% Negligible 1 99
Rider 1% 1% 0% Negligible 1 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 100
1st Round 58% 0.6 42 58
2nd Round 4% 0.0 96 4
Sweet Sixteen 0% 0.0 100 0
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Merrimack 23% 14% 16% 1%
Iona 12% 10% 7%
Fairfield 11% 10% 7%
Quinnipiac 12% 10% 7%
Siena 10% 8% 6%
Marist 9% 8% 5%
Saint Peter's 6% 5% 3%
Mount St. Mary's 5% 5% 3%
Sacred Heart 5% 5% 2%
Niagara 3% 3% 2%
Manhattan 2% 2% 1%
Canisius 1% 1% 1%
Rider 1% 1%