Preseason Rankings
Mountain West
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Grand Canyon 46%   12   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +12.2 45 B +6 57 A- +7 26 0 1 0 1
New Mexico 32%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +8.9 66 B +5 67 B +4 67 0 1 0 1
Nevada 24%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +7.2 77 B- +3 96 B +4 65 0 1 0 1
UNLV 19%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +6.1 89 B- +3 101 B- +3 82 0 1 0 1
Wyoming 10%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +2.9 114 C+ +2 110 C +1 139 0 1 0 1
Hawaii 6%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +1.4 136 C +0 152 C+ +1 112 0 1 0 1
UTEP 2%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -1.4 177 C- -2 211 C +0 148 0 1 0 1
San Jose St. 2%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -1.6 182 C +1 144 D+ -2 245 0 1 0 1
UC Davis 1%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -1.9 188 C- -2 219 C +0 161 0 1 0 1
Air Force 0%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -7.0 285 D -5 309 D+ -2 251 0 1 0 1


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Mon, Nov 2 77 Nevada 71 167 Robert Morris 60 85%   
Mon, Nov 2 66 New Mexico 81 270 Utah Tech 63 94%   
Mon, Nov 2 45 Grand Canyon 83 336 Texas Southern 58 98%   
Mon, Nov 2 220 Northern Kentucky 69 177 UTEP 71 58%   
Mon, Nov 2 182 San Jose St. 75 242 Texas San Antonio 69 72%   
Mon, Nov 2 285 Air Force 64 155 Wright St. 74 82%   
Mon, Nov 2 310 North Alabama 64 188 UC Davis 73 81%   
Tue, Nov 3 136 Hawaii 72 122 Seattle 70 59%   
Tue, Nov 3 308 Northern Arizona 61 89 UNLV 79 94%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Grand Canyon 2 52% 38% 11% 3% 52 22 12 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
New Mexico 3 29% 18% 9% 2% 29 26 17 12 8 4 3 1 0 0
Nevada 3 21% 13% 6% 2% 21 21 21 14 9 7 3 2 1 0
UNLV 4 8% 3% 3% 1% 8 11 17 17 16 14 9 6 3 1
Wyoming 5 8% 4% 2% 1% 8 12 16 15 15 14 10 6 4 1
Hawaii 6 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 7 10 14 15 15 13 12 7 3
UTEP 7 1% 1% 0% 0% 1 3 6 9 12 15 17 16 14 7
San Jose St. 7 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 3 5 7 11 14 15 18 16 9
UC Davis 7 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 3 6 8 13 15 21 20 14
Air Force 9 0% 0% 0 0 0 1 3 4 8 13 24 45

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Grand Canyon 13 - 5 22 - 8 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 9 14 18 18 13 10 5 1
New Mexico 12 - 6 21 - 10 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 11 14 16 16 14 8 5 2 0
Nevada 11 - 7 21 - 10 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 10 13 15 16 14 10 6 3 1 0
UNLV 10 - 6 18 - 10 0 0 0 1 3 6 9 13 15 16 14 11 7 3 1 0
Wyoming 10 - 8 17 - 14 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 12 14 14 13 10 7 3 2 1 0
Hawaii 8 - 10 15 - 13 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 14 14 14 12 10 6 3 2 1 0 0
UTEP 7 - 11 12 - 15 0 1 2 4 9 12 15 14 15 10 9 5 3 1 0 0 0 0
San Jose St. 7 - 11 13 - 17 0 1 3 6 10 13 15 14 13 10 9 4 2 1 0 0 0
UC Davis 6 - 10 13 - 15 0 2 4 8 13 16 16 15 11 8 5 2 1 0 0 0 0
Air Force 4 - 14 10 - 21 3 8 14 18 17 15 10 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Grand Canyon 46% 29% 24% 12 Bubble - Out 1 1 2 3 3 5 6 6 17 2 54
New Mexico 32% 22% 13% Likely Out 1 2 3 4 4 14 2 68
Nevada 24% 16% 9% Likely Out 1 1 2 3 2 13 2 76
UNLV 19% 14% 6% Likely Out 1 1 1 2 2 9 3 81
Wyoming 10% 8% 2% Likely Out 1 5 3 1 90
Hawaii 6% 5% 0% Negligible 2 2 1 0 94
UTEP 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 0 0 0 98
San Jose St. 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 0 0 98
UC Davis 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 0 0 0 99
Air Force 0% 0% 0% Negligible 100

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.4 61 35 4 0
1st Round 100% 1.3 0 72 26 1 0
2nd Round 39% 0.4 61 35 4 0
Sweet Sixteen 14% 0.1 86 14 0
Elite Eight 5% 0.0 95 5 0
Final Four 2% 0.0 98 2 0
Final Game 1% 0.0 99 1
Champion 0% 0.0 100 0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Grand Canyon 46% 9% 42% 17% 6% 2% 1%
New Mexico 32% 6% 28% 9% 3% 1% 1%
Nevada 24% 5% 21% 7% 2%
UNLV 19% 3% 17% 5% 2% 1%
Wyoming 10% 2% 10% 3% 1%
Hawaii 6% 5% 1%
UTEP 2% 2%
San Jose St. 2% 2%
UC Davis 1% 1%
Air Force 0%