Preseason Rankings
Patriot League
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
American 25%   16   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -2.2 192 C- -1 194 C- -1 191 0 1 0 1
Colgate 25%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -3.1 206 C- -1 195 C- -2 233 0 1 0 1
Lehigh 15%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -5.4 259 D+ -4 279 C- -2 222 0 1 0 1
Navy 10%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -6.8 282 D -5 308 D+ -2 244 0 1 0 1
Boston University 6%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -8.1 305 D+ -4 277 D -4 326 0 1 0 1
Lafayette 4%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -10.5 337 D- -7 346 D -3 291 0 1 0 1
Army 4%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -10.6 338 D -6 330 D- -5 337 0 1 0 1
Bucknell 4%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -10.8 340 D- -7 342 D -4 313 0 1 0 1
Loyola Maryland 3%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -11.2 344 D -6 329 D- -6 348 0 1 0 1
Holy Cross 3%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -11.8 350 D -6 331 D- -6 354 0 1 0 1


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Mon, Nov 2 338 Army 51 1 Duke 88 100%   
Mon, Nov 2 192 American 62 36 Cincinnati 80 95%   
Mon, Nov 2 206 Colgate 65 74 Washington 78 90%   
Mon, Nov 2 259 Lehigh 65 60 Saint Louis 83 94%   
Mon, Nov 2 340 Bucknell 56 41 Maryland 82 98%   
Mon, Nov 2 98 George Washington 77 282 Navy 62 91%   
Mon, Nov 2 68 Georgetown 82 344 Loyola Maryland 59 97%   
Mon, Nov 2 93 Butler 81 337 Lafayette 61 95%   
Mon, Nov 2 305 Boston University 69 250 Northeastern 70 51%   
Tue, Nov 3 350 Holy Cross 59 134 Rhode Island 76 93%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
American 3 39% 28% 9% 3% 39 24 14 9 5 4 2 1 1 0
Colgate 3 33% 23% 8% 3% 33 23 15 10 7 5 3 3 1 0
Lehigh 4 18% 11% 5% 2% 18 17 17 12 11 8 7 5 3 2
Navy 5 12% 7% 3% 2% 12 13 14 14 12 9 9 7 5 4
Boston University 6 7% 4% 2% 1% 7 8 10 12 11 12 12 10 9 7
Lafayette 6 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 7 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 11
Bucknell 6 3% 1% 1% 1% 3 5 9 9 12 13 13 12 11 12
Loyola Maryland 6 3% 1% 1% 1% 3 6 8 9 11 13 12 13 13 13
Army 7 3% 1% 1% 0% 3 4 7 9 11 12 13 13 13 15
Holy Cross 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 4 6 8 11 13 12 13 15 15

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
American 12 - 6 17 - 14 0 0 0 0 1 3 4 6 10 13 15 15 13 10 6 2 0
Colgate 12 - 6 16 - 14 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 9 11 14 14 14 12 8 4 2 0
Lehigh 10 - 8 15 - 14 0 0 1 1 2 4 8 9 11 14 14 13 11 7 4 1 1 0
Navy 10 - 8 15 - 15 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 9 11 13 14 13 11 7 5 2 1 0 0
Boston University 8 - 10 12 - 18 0 0 1 2 4 8 10 12 14 13 12 9 7 4 2 1 0 0
Lafayette 8 - 10 11 - 19 0 0 1 3 7 10 12 14 13 12 11 8 5 2 1 0 0
Bucknell 8 - 10 10 - 21 0 0 1 3 6 9 11 14 15 14 10 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
Loyola Maryland 8 - 10 10 - 18 0 0 1 4 7 11 12 14 14 13 10 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Army 7 - 11 11 - 19 0 1 2 4 9 10 12 15 13 13 9 6 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
Holy Cross 7 - 11 10 - 20 0 1 2 5 9 11 13 15 14 12 8 4 3 2 1 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
American 25% 25% 0% 16 Negligible 1 2 10 13 75
Colgate 25% 25% 0% Negligible 2 8 14 75
Lehigh 15% 15% 0% Negligible 3 11 85
Navy 10% 10% 0% Negligible 1 9 90
Boston University 6% 6% 0% Negligible 1 6 94
Lafayette 4% 4% 0% Negligible 4 96
Army 4% 4% 0% Negligible 4 96
Bucknell 4% 4% 0% Negligible 4 96
Loyola Maryland 3% 3% 0% Negligible 3 97
Holy Cross 3% 3% 0% Negligible 3 97

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 100 0
1st Round 53% 0.5 47 53
2nd Round 3% 0.0 97 3
Sweet Sixteen 1% 0.0 99 1
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
American 25% 20% 16% 1%
Colgate 25% 20% 15% 1%
Lehigh 15% 14% 8%
Navy 10% 10% 5%
Boston University 6% 6% 2%
Lafayette 4% 4% 2%
Army 4% 4% 2%
Bucknell 4% 4% 1%
Loyola Maryland 3% 3% 1%
Holy Cross 3% 3% 2%