Preseason Rankings
American Athletic
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Wichita St. 31%   12   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +7.2 78 B- +4 81 B- +3 85 0 1 0 1
South Florida 17%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +5.8 91 B- +4 78 C+ +2 102 0 1 0 1
Memphis 21%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +5.7 94 B- +4 82 C+ +2 105 0 1 0 1
Tulsa 16%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +4.5 103 B- +3 94 C+ +2 108 0 1 0 1
North Texas 8%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +3.3 110 C +0 161 B- +3 79 0 1 0 1
Florida Atlantic 8%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +2.7 117 C+ +2 118 C+ +1 120 0 1 0 1
Temple 8%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +2.5 118 C+ +2 107 C +0 152 0 1 0 1
UAB 7%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +2.2 123 C+ +2 121 C +1 142 0 1 0 1
Charlotte 6%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +2.0 125 C+ +2 119 C +0 145 0 1 0 1
Tulane 2%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -0.3 157 C+ +1 134 C- -1 202 0 1 0 1
East Carolina 2%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -1.4 175 C -1 180 C -1 182 0 1 0 1
Texas San Antonio 1%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.6 242 C- -1 206 D+ -3 282 0 1 0 1
Rice 1%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.7 243 C- -2 242 D+ -2 250 0 1 0 1


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Mon, Nov 2 10 Iowa St. 80 94 Memphis 68 87%   
Mon, Nov 2 97 McNeese St. 73 123 UAB 70 62%   
Mon, Nov 2 125 Charlotte 69 208 Indiana St. 67 58%   
Mon, Nov 2 117 Florida Atlantic 79 251 LIU Brooklyn 68 84%   
Mon, Nov 2 316 Charleston Southern 71 91 South Florida 89 94%   
Mon, Nov 2 182 San Jose St. 75 242 Texas San Antonio 69 72%   
Mon, Nov 2 335 Central Connecticut St. 58 118 Temple 73 92%   
Mon, Nov 2 157 Tulane 71 301 Tennessee Martin 61 84%   
Mon, Nov 2 175 East Carolina 78 347 South Carolina Upstate 65 88%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Wichita St. 4 29% 19% 7% 3% 29 18 13 10 9 6 4 4 3 2 1 1 0
Memphis 4 20% 12% 6% 3% 20 16 14 11 9 8 6 5 4 3 2 1 1
South Florida 5 18% 11% 5% 2% 18 15 12 9 10 9 7 6 6 4 3 2 0
Tulsa 5 14% 8% 4% 2% 14 15 13 11 9 9 8 6 5 3 3 2 1
Temple 6 11% 7% 3% 1% 11 10 10 11 10 9 8 8 7 5 5 3 2
North Texas 6 10% 5% 3% 2% 10 11 10 11 9 9 8 9 7 6 4 4 1
Florida Atlantic 6 9% 6% 2% 2% 9 9 9 10 8 9 9 7 8 7 6 5 3
UAB 7 7% 4% 2% 1% 7 8 9 8 8 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 3
Charlotte 7 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 7 7 8 8 10 11 10 10 8 9 6 4
Tulane 8 3% 2% 1% 0% 3 5 6 6 7 8 10 9 10 10 10 9 7
East Carolina 8 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 3 4 5 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 11
Texas San Antonio 10 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 1 2 4 4 6 7 9 11 14 17 23
Rice 10 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 1 3 3 4 5 7 9 11 15 18 22

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Wichita St. 12 - 6 20 - 10 0 0 0 1 2 4 5 9 12 14 15 14 12 8 4 1 0
Memphis 11 - 7 17 - 14 0 0 1 1 2 5 8 10 13 16 16 11 8 5 2 1 0
South Florida 11 - 7 20 - 12 0 0 1 2 3 7 9 12 14 14 12 12 8 4 2 0 0
Tulsa 10 - 8 19 - 11 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 10 12 14 14 14 10 7 3 1 1 0
Temple 10 - 8 16 - 12 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 11 14 13 13 10 7 5 3 1 1 0
North Texas 10 - 8 18 - 12 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 13 12 14 13 11 8 5 2 1 0 0
Florida Atlantic 9 - 9 16 - 13 0 1 1 3 5 8 11 12 12 13 10 9 7 5 2 1 0 0
UAB 9 - 9 17 - 14 0 1 2 3 5 7 11 13 15 13 11 8 5 3 2 0 0 0
Charlotte 8 - 10 17 - 14 0 0 1 2 4 7 9 12 16 15 13 10 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Tulane 8 - 10 16 - 15 0 0 1 3 6 8 13 13 14 12 11 7 5 3 1 1 0 0
East Carolina 7 - 11 14 - 14 0 1 2 5 8 11 12 15 14 11 9 6 3 2 1 0 0 0
Texas San Antonio 6 - 12 11 - 19 0 2 6 9 13 14 15 13 11 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 0
Rice 6 - 12 11 - 19 0 2 6 9 12 16 15 14 10 8 5 2 1 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Wichita St. 31% 22% 11% 12 Likely Out 1 1 1 2 3 3 15 3 69
South Florida 17% 13% 5% Likely Out 1 1 2 9 3 1 83
Memphis 21% 15% 7% Likely Out 1 2 3 10 2 1 79
Tulsa 16% 13% 3% Likely Out 1 1 8 4 84
North Texas 8% 7% 1% Likely Out 4 3 0 92
Florida Atlantic 8% 7% 1% Likely Out 0 4 2 92
Temple 8% 7% 1% Likely Out 1 3 2 1 92
UAB 7% 6% 1% Likely Out 0 0 3 2 1 93
Charlotte 6% 5% 0% Negligible 2 2 1 94
Tulane 2% 2% 0% Negligible 1 1 1 0 98
East Carolina 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 0 0 98
Texas San Antonio 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 0 0 99
Rice 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 0 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.3 75 24 1 0
1st Round 100% 1.2 0 84 15 1
2nd Round 32% 0.3 68 31 1
Sweet Sixteen 10% 0.1 90 9 0
Elite Eight 3% 0.0 97 3 0
Final Four 1% 0.0 99 1
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100 0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Wichita St. 31% 6% 28% 10% 3% 1% 1%
South Florida 17% 3% 16% 5% 1%
Memphis 21% 4% 18% 6% 2%
Tulsa 16% 2% 15% 4% 1%
North Texas 8% 1% 8% 2% 1%
Florida Atlantic 8% 1% 8% 2% 1%
Temple 8% 1% 7% 2%
UAB 7% 1% 6% 1%
Charlotte 6% 5% 1%
Tulane 2% 2%
East Carolina 2% 2%
Texas San Antonio 1% 1%
Rice 1% 1%