Preseason Rankings
Big 12
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Arizona 96%   2   Likely In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +19.8 5 A +10 11 A+ +10 5 0 1 0 1
Houston 96%   2   Likely In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +19.4 6 A- +9 21 A+ +11 2 0 1 0 1
Kansas 96%   2   Likely In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +18.9 7 A +10 9 A +9 8 0 1 0 1
Iowa St. 81%   5   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +17.9 10 A- +8 31 A +10 6 0 1 0 1
Texas Tech 89%   4   Likely In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +17.4 13 A +11 4 A- +6 28 0 1 0 1
BYU 76%   8   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +14.7 26 A +9 12 B+ +5 49 0 1 0 1
Baylor 65%   10   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +13.7 35 A- +9 23 B+ +5 52 0 1 0 1
Cincinnati 69%   10   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +13.6 36 B+ +7 41 A- +7 25 0 1 0 1
TCU 53%   11   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +11.7 47 B +6 54 B+ +6 35 0 1 0 1
West Virginia 54%   11   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +11.5 49 B +6 58 B+ +6 34 0 1 0 1
Oklahoma St. 54%   11   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +10.8 54 B+ +7 40 B +4 75 0 1 0 1
Central Florida 46%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +9.6 61 B +5 62 B +5 61 0 1 0 1
Arizona St. 31%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +9.1 63 B +5 65 B +4 66 0 1 0 1
Colorado 20%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +6.4 86 B- +4 86 B- +3 90 0 1 0 1
Utah 17%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +6.3 87 B- +3 98 B- +3 78 0 1 0 1
Kansas St. 13%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +5.8 92 B- +4 84 B- +2 100 0 1 0 1


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Mon, Nov 2 5 Arizona 74 24 UCLA 69 67%   
Mon, Nov 2 26 BYU 76 28 Ohio St. 75 51%   
Mon, Nov 2 10 Iowa St. 80 94 Memphis 68 87%   
Mon, Nov 2 116 Fordham 58 7 Kansas 77 95%   
Mon, Nov 2 6 Houston 77 166 La Salle 53 97%   
Mon, Nov 2 192 American 62 36 Cincinnati 80 95%   
Mon, Nov 2 296 Jackson St. 60 13 Texas Tech 88 99%   
Mon, Nov 2 63 Arizona St. 78 170 East Tennessee St. 65 89%   
Mon, Nov 2 35 Baylor 82 291 Northwestern St. 58 98%   
Mon, Nov 2 271 Florida Gulf Coast 63 61 Central Florida 82 95%   
Mon, Nov 2 306 Lindenwood 63 47 TCU 86 97%   
Mon, Nov 2 54 Oklahoma St. 87 304 Incarnate Word 65 97%   
Mon, Nov 2 319 Niagara 50 49 West Virginia 74 98%   
Mon, Nov 2 248 Abilene Christian 64 86 Colorado 78 90%   
Mon, Nov 2 273 Long Beach St. 64 87 Utah 79 92%   
Tue, Nov 3 92 Kansas St. 84 233 South Dakota St. 71 88%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th
Kansas 4 25% 15% 6% 4% 25 19 14 9 9 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0
Houston 4 23% 14% 6% 3% 23 17 12 10 9 7 5 5 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 0
Arizona 4 22% 14% 6% 3% 22 16 13 10 10 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0
Texas Tech 5 19% 11% 5% 3% 19 15 12 12 9 7 6 5 4 4 2 2 2 1 1 0
Iowa St. 6 10% 5% 4% 2% 10 10 10 10 8 9 8 7 6 6 5 3 3 2 1 1
BYU 7 9% 4% 2% 2% 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 3 3 2 1
Baylor 7 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 5 4 2 1
Cincinnati 8 4% 2% 2% 1% 4 7 6 7 8 9 9 7 8 7 7 5 5 5 3 2
TCU 8 5% 3% 1% 1% 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 3
West Virginia 8 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 5 4 4
Oklahoma St. 9 3% 1% 1% 1% 3 5 4 6 7 7 8 9 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 3
Central Florida 10 2% 1% 0% 1% 2 3 3 5 5 5 7 8 8 8 9 8 8 9 7 5
Arizona St. 11 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 3 3 4 5 6 7 7 8 9 9 11 10 10 8
Utah 12 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 9 9 10 12 13 14
Colorado 12 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 8 9 12 11 14 14
Kansas St. 12 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 9 9 14 17 19

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Kansas 12 - 6 22 - 8 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 8 11 14 17 17 12 8 4 1 0
Houston 12 - 6 22 - 8 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 9 11 16 16 14 12 8 3 1 0
Arizona 12 - 6 21 - 9 0 0 1 1 3 6 9 12 15 16 14 13 6 3 1 0
Texas Tech 11 - 7 20 - 9 0 0 0 2 3 4 7 9 12 16 16 14 10 6 3 1 0
Iowa St. 10 - 8 21 - 9 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 15 15 12 10 7 3 1 0
BYU 10 - 8 20 - 10 0 0 0 1 3 5 10 11 13 14 14 12 8 4 2 1 0
Baylor 9 - 9 18 - 11 0 0 1 2 4 8 10 15 14 14 13 8 6 4 2 0 0
Cincinnati 9 - 9 21 - 11 0 0 1 3 5 8 11 12 15 15 12 8 6 3 1 0 0
TCU 9 - 9 19 - 11 0 0 2 3 5 8 11 14 14 14 11 8 5 3 1 0 0 0
West Virginia 9 - 9 18 - 12 0 1 2 3 6 10 13 13 14 12 10 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Oklahoma St. 8 - 10 19 - 13 0 0 1 2 4 7 9 13 13 16 13 10 6 4 2 1 0 0
Central Florida 8 - 10 18 - 14 0 0 2 3 6 9 12 13 15 13 11 7 4 2 1 0 0
Arizona St. 7 - 11 19 - 14 0 1 2 4 8 12 13 16 13 11 9 5 3 1 0 0 0
Utah 6 - 12 17 - 15 0 2 4 8 11 15 15 14 11 9 5 3 1 1 0 0
Colorado 6 - 12 15 - 16 0 2 4 8 12 15 15 13 11 8 6 4 1 1 0 0 0
Kansas St. 6 - 12 14 - 16 0 2 6 10 15 16 15 12 9 6 4 2 1 1 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Arizona 96% 15% 95% 2 Likely In 18 16 14 11 9 8 5 5 3 3 3 4
Houston 96% 16% 95% 2 Likely In 20 15 14 11 8 8 6 4 3 3 3 4
Kansas 96% 16% 96% 2 Likely In 20 17 15 10 8 6 6 4 3 3 3 4
Iowa St. 81% 7% 80% 5 Bubble - In 5 7 7 8 9 8 7 7 6 8 10 1 19
Texas Tech 89% 14% 88% 4 Likely In 10 13 12 11 9 7 6 5 4 5 6 11
BYU 76% 6% 74% 8 Bubble - In 4 4 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 12 2 24
Baylor 65% 6% 63% 10 Bubble - In 3 3 3 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 12 2 35
Cincinnati 69% 5% 67% 10 Bubble - In 2 2 4 5 7 6 6 7 6 8 12 2 31
TCU 53% 3% 52% 11 Bubble - In 1 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 5 7 13 2 47
West Virginia 54% 4% 52% 11 Bubble - In 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 5 5 8 12 2 46
Oklahoma St. 54% 3% 53% 11 Bubble - In 1 1 2 3 4 4 5 6 6 8 12 2 46
Central Florida 46% 2% 44% Bubble - Out 1 1 1 2 3 2 4 5 6 7 11 3 54
Arizona St. 31% 1% 30% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 9 3 69
Colorado 20% 1% 20% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 3 3 7 2 80
Utah 17% 1% 17% Likely Out 1 1 1 1 2 2 7 3 83
Kansas St. 13% 1% 13% Likely Out 1 0 1 1 1 2 4 2 87

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 9.6 0 0 4 14 30 29 16 5 0 0
1st Round 100% 8.5 0 0 4 15 31 29 14 5 1 0
2nd Round 100% 5.8 0 1 3 12 24 31 19 8 2 0 0
Sweet Sixteen 99% 3.1 1 8 22 32 25 10 3 0
Elite Eight 87% 1.6 13 35 34 14 3 0
Final Four 60% 0.8 40 43 16 2 0
Final Game 38% 0.4 62 35 3
Champion 20% 0.2 80 20

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arizona 96% 6% 93% 74% 44% 23% 13% 7% 4%
Houston 96% 6% 93% 76% 46% 26% 13% 7% 3%
Kansas 96% 5% 94% 77% 48% 27% 14% 8% 4%
Iowa St. 81% 17% 73% 51% 27% 14% 7% 3% 1%
Texas Tech 89% 11% 85% 65% 38% 20% 11% 6% 3%
BYU 76% 17% 68% 46% 24% 10% 5% 2% 1%
Baylor 65% 18% 55% 34% 17% 7% 3% 1% 1%
Cincinnati 69% 19% 61% 36% 18% 8% 3% 1% 1%
TCU 53% 20% 44% 24% 11% 5% 2% 1%
West Virginia 54% 19% 45% 26% 12% 6% 2% 1%
Oklahoma St. 54% 18% 45% 24% 11% 5% 2% 1%
Central Florida 46% 18% 36% 19% 7% 3% 1% 1%
Arizona St. 31% 14% 24% 11% 4% 2% 1%
Colorado 20% 10% 15% 7% 2% 1%
Utah 17% 10% 12% 5% 2% 1%
Kansas St. 13% 7% 9% 4% 2%