Preseason Rankings
Big East
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Connecticut 96%   1   Likely In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +20.0 4 A +9 13 A+ +11 3 0 1 0 1
St. John's 93%   2   Likely In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +17.2 16 A- +9 24 A +9 10 0 1 0 1
Villanova 79%   6   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +14.1 31 A- +9 25 B+ +5 46 0 1 0 1
Marquette 74%   9   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +13.7 34 B+ +7 44 A- +7 21 0 1 0 1
Providence 68%   10   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +12.7 40 B+ +7 48 B+ +6 33 0 1 0 1
Creighton 66%   10   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +12.5 44 A- +8 37 B +4 62 0 1 0 1
Xavier 55%   11   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +10.7 55 B+ +7 45 B +4 72 0 1 0 1
DePaul 29%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +8.7 67 B- +3 95 B+ +6 36 0 1 0 1
Georgetown 26%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +8.7 68 B- +4 75 B +5 58 0 1 0 1
Seton Hall 29%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +8.0 73 C+ +3 104 B+ +5 45 0 1 0 1
Butler 13%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +5.7 93 B- +4 85 B- +2 99 0 1 0 1


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Nov 1 79 Notre Dame 66 31 Villanova 73 75%   
Mon, Nov 2 190 Monmouth 61 16 St. John's 83 97%   
Mon, Nov 2 353 Gardner-Webb 51 4 Connecticut 86 100%   
Mon, Nov 2 34 Marquette 82 302 Mercyhurst 57 98%   
Mon, Nov 2 44 Creighton 88 292 UMKC 65 97%   
Mon, Nov 2 299 Mount St. Mary's 64 55 Xavier 85 97%   
Mon, Nov 2 331 Maine 57 40 Providence 83 98%   
Mon, Nov 2 293 St. Peter's 55 73 Seton Hall 73 95%   
Mon, Nov 2 67 DePaul 80 315 West Georgia 59 96%   
Mon, Nov 2 68 Georgetown 82 344 Loyola Maryland 59 97%   
Mon, Nov 2 93 Butler 81 337 Lafayette 61 95%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Connecticut 2 42% 30% 10% 3% 42 21 13 10 5 3 2 2 1 0 0
St. John's 3 31% 20% 8% 2% 31 23 15 10 8 5 3 2 1 1 0
Villanova 4 14% 8% 4% 2% 14 15 16 13 11 10 7 6 4 2 1
Marquette 5 10% 6% 3% 1% 10 12 13 13 12 11 10 8 5 3 1
Providence 5 9% 5% 3% 1% 9 10 11 13 13 11 11 8 6 5 3
Creighton 5 8% 4% 3% 1% 8 10 12 13 12 11 10 9 6 5 3
Xavier 6 5% 3% 2% 1% 5 8 9 11 12 12 12 10 10 7 4
DePaul 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 3 5 7 8 9 10 14 15 14 12
Seton Hall 8 2% 1% 0% 0% 2 3 4 6 9 10 12 12 15 14 14
Georgetown 7 2% 1% 0% 0% 2 3 4 6 8 11 11 13 14 15 13
Butler 9 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 2 3 5 6 9 11 14 20 28

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Connecticut 14 - 6 23 - 9 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 7 10 14 16 15 13 8 5 1 1
St. John's 13 - 7 22 - 8 0 0 0 1 2 2 4 7 10 12 14 15 13 9 7 3 1 0
Villanova 11 - 9 20 - 11 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 7 10 11 13 14 13 10 7 4 2 1 0 0
Marquette 11 - 9 20 - 12 0 0 0 1 1 3 6 9 11 14 13 12 11 8 6 2 1 0 0
Providence 10 - 10 18 - 12 0 0 0 1 3 4 7 10 12 13 14 12 9 7 5 3 1 0 0
Creighton 10 - 10 18 - 12 0 0 0 1 3 5 7 10 11 14 13 12 10 6 5 2 1 0 0
Xavier 10 - 10 19 - 13 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 11 14 13 12 10 7 4 2 1 1 0 0 0
DePaul 8 - 12 17 - 15 0 0 1 3 6 8 11 14 14 11 11 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0
Seton Hall 8 - 12 16 - 15 0 1 1 4 6 9 11 13 13 13 10 7 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
Georgetown 8 - 12 16 - 15 0 1 2 3 6 9 13 13 12 13 10 8 5 3 1 1 0 0 0
Butler 6 - 14 15 - 17 0 2 5 8 11 13 13 13 12 9 6 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Connecticut 96% 27% 94% 1 Likely In 20 21 14 11 8 8 4 3 2 3 2 4
St. John's 93% 21% 92% 2 Likely In 15 16 12 10 8 7 7 5 4 4 4 1 7
Villanova 79% 11% 77% 6 Bubble - In 4 5 7 7 9 7 8 7 5 8 10 1 21
Marquette 74% 8% 72% 9 Bubble - In 2 4 4 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 12 2 26
Providence 68% 10% 64% 10 Bubble - In 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 11 2 32
Creighton 66% 7% 63% 10 Bubble - In 2 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 8 8 11 1 34
Xavier 55% 6% 52% 11 Bubble - In 2 2 2 4 4 4 5 6 5 7 13 2 45
DePaul 29% 3% 27% Bubble - Out 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 10 1 71
Georgetown 26% 2% 24% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 2 3 5 9 2 74
Seton Hall 29% 3% 27% Bubble - Out 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 5 9 2 71
Butler 13% 1% 12% Likely Out 1 1 2 2 5 1 87

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 6.3 0 3 18 35 31 10 1 0
1st Round 100% 5.5 0 2 13 35 32 15 2 0
2nd Round 100% 3.7 0 2 13 30 34 17 5 0 0
Sweet Sixteen 93% 1.9 7 27 38 21 6 1 0
Elite Eight 71% 1.0 29 46 20 4 0
Final Four 45% 0.5 55 39 6 0 0
Final Game 25% 0.3 75 24 1
Champion 13% 0.1 87 13

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Connecticut 96% 4% 94% 79% 51% 31% 18% 10% 6%
St. John's 93% 7% 90% 71% 42% 24% 13% 7% 3%
Villanova 79% 16% 71% 47% 24% 12% 6% 3% 1%
Marquette 74% 19% 64% 40% 18% 9% 4% 2% 1%
Providence 68% 18% 59% 36% 17% 7% 4% 2% 1%
Creighton 66% 17% 57% 35% 16% 7% 3% 1% 1%
Xavier 55% 18% 45% 26% 12% 5% 2% 1%
DePaul 29% 13% 22% 10% 4% 2%
Georgetown 26% 14% 18% 9% 3% 1%
Seton Hall 29% 13% 22% 11% 5% 2% 1%
Butler 13% 7% 9% 3% 1%