Preseason Rankings
Southland
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
McNeese St. 41%   14   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +5.2 97 C+ +1 124 B +4 74 0 1 0 1
Stephen F. Austin 23%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +1.1 138 C +0 160 C+ +1 115 0 1 0 1
TX A&M Corpus Christi 7%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -3.3 210 D+ -4 289 C +1 137 0 1 0 1
Lamar 6%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.1 232 D+ -3 260 C- -1 201 0 1 0 1
UT Rio Grande Valley 5%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -5.4 261 D+ -4 281 C- -2 219 0 1 0 1
New Orleans 3%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -5.5 265 C- -2 233 D+ -3 288 0 1 0 1
Houston Christian 4%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -5.7 266 D+ -4 283 C- -2 230 0 1 0 1
SE Louisiana 4%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -6.0 272 D+ -4 286 C- -2 235 0 1 0 1
Nicholls St. 2%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -7.1 286 D+ -4 285 D+ -3 284 0 1 0 1
Northwestern St. 2%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -7.4 291 D -5 306 D+ -3 270 0 1 0 1
Incarnate Word 3%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -8.1 304 D+ -3 269 D- -5 336 0 1 0 1
East Texas A&M 1%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -11.0 343 D- -7 349 D -4 307 0 1 0 1


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Mon, Nov 2 97 McNeese St. 73 123 UAB 70 62%   
Mon, Nov 2 35 Baylor 82 291 Northwestern St. 58 98%   
Mon, Nov 2 29 Oklahoma 85 343 East Texas A&M 57 99%   
Mon, Nov 2 54 Oklahoma St. 87 304 Incarnate Word 65 97%   
Mon, Nov 2 210 TX A&M Corpus Christi 62 112 Texas St. 72 81%   
Tue, Nov 3 43 LSU 85 265 New Orleans 64 96%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
McNeese St. 2 57% 46% 9% 2% 57 22 10 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0
Stephen F. Austin 3 29% 20% 7% 2% 29 26 15 8 7 4 4 2 1 1 1 0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 5 9% 5% 3% 1% 9 13 13 11 12 10 8 6 5 5 4 3
Lamar 6 5% 3% 2% 1% 5 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 7 6 5 4
UT Rio Grande Valley 6 4% 3% 1% 1% 4 9 13 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 5 4
SE Louisiana 6 3% 1% 1% 0% 3 6 9 11 11 11 11 10 9 7 6 5
New Orleans 7 3% 1% 1% 0% 3 6 8 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 8 6
Houston Christian 7 3% 2% 1% 0% 3 6 9 9 10 10 9 10 10 9 7 8
Incarnate Word 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 5 7 8 10 10 11 11 11 10 9 7
Northwestern St. 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 5 6 8 9 10 10 9 10 10 10 9
Nicholls St. 8 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 4 6 6 8 10 10 10 11 12 12 12
East Texas A&M 9 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 2 3 5 7 8 9 12 14 17 21

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0
McNeese St. 16 - 5 21 - 8 0 0 0 1 2 4 5 10 12 15 15 16 11 6 2
Stephen F. Austin 15 - 7 17 - 10 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 6 8 10 14 13 11 10 8 6 2 1 0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 12 - 10 14 - 16 0 0 1 2 3 5 5 9 12 11 10 12 10 8 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Lamar 11 - 11 14 - 16 0 0 0 1 1 3 4 6 8 11 12 12 11 11 8 5 4 2 1 0 0 0
UT Rio Grande Valley 11 - 11 13 - 17 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 7 9 11 12 11 11 10 8 6 3 2 1 0 0 0
SE Louisiana 10 - 11 12 - 20 0 1 1 3 5 7 10 13 13 13 11 9 7 3 2 1 0 0 0
New Orleans 10 - 11 13 - 17 0 0 1 2 4 6 8 12 12 12 12 10 9 5 4 2 1 0 0 0
Houston Christian 10 - 12 14 - 16 0 0 0 1 3 4 7 8 11 12 11 12 9 8 5 4 2 1 1 0 0
Incarnate Word 10 - 12 11 - 21 0 0 0 1 3 4 6 10 13 13 13 11 9 7 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
Northwestern St. 9 - 13 12 - 18 0 0 0 1 2 5 8 10 12 11 13 11 9 6 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
Nicholls St. 9 - 12 11 - 19 0 0 1 2 4 6 10 11 13 12 12 11 8 6 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
East Texas A&M 8 - 14 9 - 22 0 1 1 4 7 10 13 15 12 12 9 7 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
McNeese St. 41% 41% 1% 14 Likely Out 1 1 5 15 13 5 59
Stephen F. Austin 23% 23% 0% Negligible 1 5 8 8 1 77
TX A&M Corpus Christi 7% 7% 0% Negligible 2 4 1 93
Lamar 6% 6% 0% Negligible 0 1 3 2 94
UT Rio Grande Valley 5% 5% 0% Negligible 0 0 3 1 95
New Orleans 3% 3% 0% Negligible 1 2 0 97
Houston Christian 4% 4% 0% Negligible 0 2 1 96
SE Louisiana 4% 4% 0% Negligible 1 2 1 96
Nicholls St. 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 98
Northwestern St. 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 98
Incarnate Word 3% 3% 0% Negligible 1 1 97
East Texas A&M 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 1 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 99 1
1st Round 83% 0.8 17 82 1
2nd Round 12% 0.1 88 12 0
Sweet Sixteen 3% 0.0 97 3
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
McNeese St. 41% 3% 40% 8% 2%
Stephen F. Austin 23% 6% 21% 3% 1%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 7% 3% 5%
Lamar 6% 4% 4%
UT Rio Grande Valley 5% 3% 3%
New Orleans 3% 2% 2%
Houston Christian 4% 3% 2%
SE Louisiana 4% 3% 2%
Nicholls St. 2% 1% 1%
Northwestern St. 2% 2% 1%
Incarnate Word 3% 2% 1%
East Texas A&M 1% 1%