Avon
Boys - Girls
2018 - 2019 - 2020
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State Rank #23
Shelbyville Semi-State Rank #9
Ben Davis Regional Rank #3
South Putnam Sectional Rank #3
Most Likely Finish 9th place at Semi-State
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.1%
Top 10 at State Finals 1.5%
Advance to State Finals 8.7%
Advance to Semi-State 99.5%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating THSB State Preview Brown County Eagle Classic RH Flashrock Invitational Hoosier Crossroads Conf. Nike Valley Twilight Brownsburg Sectional Ben Davis Regional Shelbyville Semi-State State Finals
Date 9/7 9/14 9/21 9/28 10/5 10/12 10/19 10/26 11/2
Team Rating 374 500 402 624 439 499 420 442 348
Team Adjusted Rating 353 366 360 395 407 420 442 348
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating THSB State Preview Brown County Eagle Classic RH Flashrock Invitational Hoosier Crossroads Conf. Nike Valley Twilight Brownsburg Sectional Ben Davis Regional Shelbyville Semi-State State Finals
27  Nathaniel Beeler 12 16:11 16:15 15:58 16:05 15:53 15:53 16:35 16:18 16:15 16:24
166  Awet Hailu 12 16:52 17:06 17:32 16:54 17:22 16:40
225  Nicholas James 12 17:03 17:04 17:19 17:04 17:07 16:58 16:52
256  Sam Crook 11 17:08 17:29 17:29 17:14 17:15 17:09 17:10 17:11 16:56
328  Griffin O'Neill 10 17:17 17:21 17:01 17:07 17:20 17:08 17:26 17:36 17:24
408  Jake Shepherd 12 17:26 17:28 17:16 17:21 17:27 17:41
485  Justin Loh 12 17:34 17:01 17:34 17:40 17:31
735  Garrison Hirst 11 17:56 17:55 19:27 18:06 17:38
870  Cameron O'Mara 11 18:08 18:18 18:10 17:59 18:26 17:57
878  Ethan Maharas 12 18:08 17:48 17:50 18:49 18:29 17:27 18:51 17:55
879  Logan Shaffer 11 18:08 18:53 18:19 18:06 18:01 18:12
910  Ben Hochgesang 11 18:11 18:22 18:01 18:24
1,001  Connor O'Neill 12 18:18 17:46 18:29 18:00 18:17 18:30
1,255  Levi Beeler 10 18:37 18:53 19:05 18:37 18:19 18:29
1,292  Sam Sublette 10 18:39 18:57 18:35 18:45 18:49 18:21
1,308  Aiden Shaw 9 18:40 19:33 18:54 18:19 18:44 18:25
1,338  Dawson LeMay 9 18:42 18:47 18:36 18:41 18:50 18:43
1,355  Jeffrey Hays 10 18:43 18:35 18:41 18:53
1,444  Cullen Broda 9 18:50 18:54 18:35 18:28 19:24 18:40 19:24
Wes Mills 9 19:13 19:23 19:08 19:22 19:46 18:38




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 8.7% 13.8 352 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1
Semi-State 99.5% 9.2 245 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.3 5.5 11.8 17.2 18.7 16.8 11.1 8.4 4.8 1.9 0.2 0.0
Regionals 100% 3.2 94 0.8 9.5 61.2 21.3 6.7 0.4 0.1
Sectionals 100% 2.2 51 2.1 76.4 21.5



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Nathaniel Beeler 92.1% 30.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.6 2.4 91.3% 92.1%
Awet Hailu 9.0% 92.1 0.3% 0.9%
Nicholas James 8.7% 114.9 0.0% 0.1%
Sam Crook 8.7% 128.8 0.0% 0.0%
Griffin O'Neill 8.7% 147.7 0.0% 0.0%
Jake Shepherd 8.7% 164.8 0.0% 0.0%
Justin Loh 8.7% 176.3 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Nathaniel Beeler 100% 13.5 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.7 2.2 2.9 3.5 4.8 5.7 6.1 6.2 6.1 6.5 5.8 5.3 5.3 4.5 4.6 3.4 3.4 2.9 2.5 2.1 1.8 1.5 100.0% 100.0%
Awet Hailu 99.9% 56.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 84.8% 99.6%
Nicholas James 99.8% 70.5 0.0 0.0 54.3% 96.3%
Sam Crook 99.7% 78.6 0.0 23.9% 90.8%
Griffin O'Neill 99.6% 93.3 4.3% 73.9%
Jake Shepherd 99.5% 108.7 0.0% 46.5%
Justin Loh 99.5% 120.9 0.0% 24.7%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Nathaniel Beeler 100% 5.0 1.2 4.4 10.7 15.8 18.4 15.1 11.8 8.3 5.7 3.7 2.6 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Awet Hailu 100% 16.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.3 2.0 3.8 6.5 8.4 10.2 10.8 11.2 10.6 8.5 6.4 5.0 3.8 2.6 2.1 1.6 100.0%
Nicholas James 100% 20.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 2.0 3.3 4.6 5.9 7.8 9.1 9.1 8.9 7.5 6.9 5.7 4.9 100.0%
Sam Crook 100% 23.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.2 3.1 4.1 5.7 6.9 8.0 7.3 6.9 7.2 6.2 100.0%
Griffin O'Neill 100% 29.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.3 2.2 3.0 3.7 4.6 4.6 5.1 100.0%
Jake Shepherd 100% 35.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.5 2.1 100.0%
Justin Loh 100% 40.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Nathaniel Beeler 2.6 6.0 25.3 32.8 17.1 10.4 6.4 1.5 0.5
Awet Hailu 8.3 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.8 14.5 19.4 30.1 14.1 7.5 4.7 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Nicholas James 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 5.9 12.0 21.3 18.0 13.1 10.3 7.2 4.4 2.4 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Sam Crook 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 5.4 11.7 16.8 14.7 13.8 12.0 8.6 6.1 3.6 2.0 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Griffin O'Neill 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.7 9.2 11.0 12.3 14.4 12.5 9.9 7.5 5.4 3.5 2.5 1.7 1.0 0.7 0.5
Jake Shepherd 17.8 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.4 5.2 8.3 10.8 11.5 11.0 9.9 9.1 7.9 6.0 4.9 3.4 2.3
Justin Loh 20.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.5 4.3 5.7 8.6 9.0 9.7 10.1 9.6 9.0 8.0 6.9