Bremen
Boys - Girls
2018 - 2019 - 2020
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State Rank #128
New Haven Semi-State Rank: #39
Elkhart Central Regional Rank #14
Riley Sectional Rank #14
Most Likely Finish 6th place at Sectionals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 0.0%
Advance to Semi-State 0.0%
Advance to Regional 28.9%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating Northern Indiana Conf. Stomp Northwood Invitational Tippecanoe Valley Invitational New Prairie Invitational New Haven Classic NIC / NLC Riley Sectional Elkhart Central Regional
Date 8/24 8/31 9/14 9/21 9/28 10/5 10/12 10/19
Team Rating 913 1,012 915 982 895 883 914 936 877
Team Adjusted Rating 936 894 947 876 866 904 904 849
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Northern Indiana Conf. Stomp Northwood Invitational Tippecanoe Valley Invitational New Prairie Invitational New Haven Classic NIC / NLC Riley Sectional Elkhart Central Regional
863  Aaron Young 12 18:07 18:33 18:21 18:10 18:15 18:01 18:06 18:10 18:13 17:58
888  Bobby Simons 12 18:09 18:03 18:09 18:02 18:13 18:05 18:02 18:10 18:14 18:17
985  Tyler Smith 11 18:17 18:17
1,080  Aaron Douglas 10 18:24 18:37 19:14 19:02 18:33 18:55 18:56 18:25 18:34 18:05
1,194  Lextin Willis 10 18:31 18:28 18:16 18:23 18:37 18:25 18:30 18:23 19:25
1,240  Jacob Fish 11 18:35 18:23 18:44 18:23 18:43 18:32 18:22 18:40 18:41 18:38
Seth Young 12 19:08 18:39 21:13 20:14 19:26 19:19 19:42 18:42 19:46
Kenny Hilgendorf 12 19:37 19:15 19:42 19:41 19:39 19:29 19:34 19:40




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 0.0%
Semi-State 0.0% 17.5 454 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Regionals 28.9% 9.6 213 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.9 5.0 20.8
Sectionals 100% 5.6 131 0.1 2.2 7.5 19.1 71.0 0.2



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team made it.



Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Aaron Young 0.2% 117.5 0.2% 0.2%
Bobby Simons 0.2% 130.0 0.2% 0.2%
Tyler Smith 0.1% 125.0 0.0% 0.0%
Aaron Douglas 0.0% 125.0 0.0% 0.0%
Lextin Willis 0.0% 127.0 0.0% 0.0%
Jacob Fish 0.0% 142.5 0.0% 0.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Aaron Young 100% 48.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 100.0% 100.0%
Bobby Simons 100% 49.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0% 100.0%
Tyler Smith 100% 58.0 100.0% 100.0%
Aaron Douglas 100% 65.2 100.0% 100.0%
Lextin Willis 100.0% 71.9 100.0% 100.0%
Jacob Fish 100% 74.6 100.0% 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Aaron Young 20.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 2.6 9.3 11.1 10.9 10.0 8.5 7.7 7.1 6.2 5.9
Bobby Simons 21.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.2 7.9 10.2 9.8 9.4 8.7 7.9 7.2 6.6 5.7
Tyler Smith 25.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 2.6 4.2 4.8 5.6 6.7 7.0 7.0 7.1
Aaron Douglas 29.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.7 2.4 3.1 3.5 4.3 4.9
Lextin Willis 32.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 2.1
Jacob Fish 34.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.1