All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | | Preseason Rating | |
Zionsville Early Bird (4k) |
Columbus North Invitational |
Brown County Eagle Classic |
Big Blue Invite |
Conference Indiana |
New Haven Classic |
Nike Valley Twilight |
Brown County Sectional |
Columbus North Regional |
Brown County Semi-State |
State Finals |
|---|
| Date | | |
8/24 |
9/7 |
9/14 |
9/17 |
9/21 |
9/28 |
10/5 |
10/12 |
10/19 |
10/26 |
11/2 |
| Team Rating |
218 | |
243 |
257 |
550 |
631 |
238 |
214 |
234 |
597 |
279 |
238 |
194 |
| Team Adjusted Rating | | |
243 |
232 |
218 |
218 |
238 |
214 |
234 |
254 |
279 |
238 |
194 |
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating | Preseason Rating |
Zionsville Early Bird (4k) |
Columbus North Invitational |
Brown County Eagle Classic |
Big Blue Invite |
Conference Indiana |
New Haven Classic |
Nike Valley Twilight |
Brown County Sectional |
Columbus North Regional |
Brown County Semi-State |
State Finals |
|---|
| 16 |
Matt Newell |
10 |
15:59 |
16:11 |
16:05 |
16:04 |
|
|
16:02 |
16:06 |
15:52 |
|
16:16 |
16:00 |
15:53 |
| 40 |
Reese Kilbarger-Stumpff |
10 |
16:16 |
16:38 |
16:31 |
|
|
|
16:27 |
16:02 |
16:10 |
16:53 |
16:28 |
16:13 |
16:11 |
| 72 |
Andy Stohr |
11 |
16:29 |
17:59 |
16:48 |
16:41 |
|
|
16:47 |
16:24 |
16:48 |
|
16:34 |
16:28 |
16:22 |
| 101 |
Austin Pulkowski |
11 |
16:37 |
17:26 |
16:34 |
16:39 |
|
|
16:36 |
16:52 |
16:53 |
|
16:54 |
17:07 |
16:30 |
| 118 |
Evan Carr |
10 |
16:44 |
16:45 |
16:43 |
16:42 |
|
|
16:41 |
16:36 |
16:42 |
|
16:58 |
16:51 |
16:41 |
| 140 |
Collin Pruitt |
11 |
16:49 |
16:44 |
17:20 |
16:37 |
|
|
16:39 |
16:52 |
16:45 |
|
16:55 |
16:52 |
16:49 |
| 279 |
Will Kiel |
10 |
17:11 |
17:23 |
16:36 |
16:56 |
17:03 |
|
17:02 |
17:55 |
17:10 |
|
17:19 |
17:41 |
17:08 |
| 367 |
Carson Littrell |
12 |
17:21 |
17:41 |
17:12 |
17:14 |
|
|
17:23 |
17:17 |
17:27 |
17:28 |
|
|
|
| 403 |
Gabe Wills |
11 |
17:26 |
17:35 |
17:10 |
17:22 |
17:15 |
17:26 |
17:24 |
17:16 |
17:48 |
17:50 |
|
|
|
| 500 |
Sam Hobbeheydar |
9 |
17:35 |
|
17:40 |
17:34 |
17:26 |
17:41 |
17:25 |
17:48 |
17:50 |
17:31 |
|
|
|
| 524 |
Jacob Strietelmeier |
9 |
17:37 |
|
17:52 |
17:31 |
17:43 |
17:21 |
17:39 |
17:39 |
17:35 |
17:49 |
|
|
|
| 527 |
Clayton Guthrie |
9 |
17:38 |
|
17:07 |
17:27 |
17:31 |
17:36 |
17:45 |
17:49 |
17:55 |
|
|
|
|
| 720 |
Kellen Hottell |
9 |
17:55 |
|
17:57 |
17:59 |
17:46 |
17:54 |
17:46 |
17:57 |
17:56 |
18:18 |
|
|
|
| 796 |
John Merritt |
9 |
18:02 |
|
18:07 |
18:00 |
18:00 |
18:14 |
17:55 |
18:04 |
17:55 |
18:21 |
|
|
|
| 935 |
Dominic Hovis |
10 |
18:13 |
|
18:04 |
18:22 |
18:10 |
18:26 |
|
18:07 |
18:17 |
|
|
|
|
| 992 |
Jackson Davis |
11 |
18:18 |
18:39 |
18:26 |
18:08 |
18:10 |
19:00 |
18:34 |
18:09 |
18:12 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,006 |
Carter Howell |
9 |
18:19 |
|
18:11 |
|
|
18:54 |
18:28 |
18:11 |
18:10 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,073 |
Will Russell |
9 |
18:24 |
|
18:07 |
19:13 |
18:33 |
17:58 |
18:26 |
18:41 |
18:08 |
|
|
|
|
|
Ethan Lax |
10 |
19:14 |
|
18:37 |
19:14 |
19:36 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Will Littrell |
10 |
19:15 |
18:56 |
19:01 |
19:30 |
19:16 |
19:02 |
19:21 |
19:17 |
19:14 |
|
|
|
|
|
Ryan Clulow |
10 |
19:25 |
|
18:59 |
19:45 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Charlie Smith |
9 |
19:28 |
|
19:16 |
19:35 |
19:22 |
20:58 |
18:45 |
19:42 |
19:24 |
|
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
| State Finals |
100% |
6.1 |
219 |
4.8 |
9.2 |
11.8 |
13.1 |
11.8 |
11.0 |
9.0 |
7.5 |
5.5 |
4.6 |
3.2 |
2.8 |
1.8 |
1.4 |
1.1 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
|
|
| Semi-State |
100% |
1.4 |
61 |
63.2 |
32.2 |
3.6 |
0.9 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Regionals |
100% |
1.0 |
23 |
99.3 |
0.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
1.0 |
16 |
100.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Matt Newell |
100% |
17.7 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
1.1 |
1.9 |
2.4 |
2.6 |
2.9 |
3.4 |
3.4 |
3.6 |
4.2 |
4.4 |
4.1 |
4.1 |
4.0 |
3.9 |
3.6 |
3.5 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
2.8 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
|
100.0% |
| Reese Kilbarger-Stumpff |
100% |
42.3 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
|
99.0% |
| Andy Stohr |
100% |
69.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
|
90.3% |
| Austin Pulkowski |
100% |
88.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
70.7% |
| Evan Carr |
100% |
104.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
49.5% |
| Collin Pruitt |
100% |
115.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
35.3% |
| Will Kiel |
100% |
162.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.1% |
| Semi-State | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Matt Newell |
100% |
1.8 |
28.4 |
25.7 |
16.2 |
10.3 |
6.8 |
4.7 |
2.9 |
1.8 |
1.2 |
0.8 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Reese Kilbarger-Stumpff |
100% |
6.8 |
0.6 |
4.0 |
7.4 |
8.8 |
10.6 |
10.2 |
10.4 |
8.5 |
7.3 |
6.6 |
5.8 |
4.5 |
3.5 |
2.9 |
2.1 |
1.6 |
1.4 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
|
100.0% |
| Andy Stohr |
100% |
13.1 |
|
0.2 |
0.5 |
1.4 |
2.4 |
3.0 |
4.0 |
5.2 |
5.9 |
6.3 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
6.5 |
6.4 |
5.8 |
5.3 |
4.6 |
4.6 |
3.6 |
2.9 |
2.7 |
2.3 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.4 |
|
100.0% |
| Austin Pulkowski |
100% |
19.3 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
0.9 |
1.5 |
2.0 |
2.3 |
3.0 |
3.9 |
4.4 |
4.6 |
4.7 |
5.1 |
4.8 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
4.8 |
4.9 |
4.6 |
4.0 |
3.3 |
3.2 |
|
100.0% |
| Evan Carr |
100% |
25.1 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.8 |
1.2 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
2.8 |
3.2 |
3.3 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
4.2 |
4.1 |
4.3 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
3.8 |
|
100.0% |
| Collin Pruitt |
100% |
29.8 |
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
2.2 |
2.7 |
2.9 |
3.0 |
3.6 |
3.4 |
3.9 |
3.5 |
|
100.0% |
| Will Kiel |
100% |
58.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
|
100.0% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Matt Newell |
100% |
1.0 |
88.9 |
8.7 |
1.9 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Reese Kilbarger-Stumpff |
100% |
1.9 |
3.1 |
53.4 |
24.0 |
11.8 |
4.9 |
1.8 |
0.7 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Andy Stohr |
100% |
4.0 |
0.1 |
4.3 |
23.1 |
21.9 |
20.0 |
14.4 |
8.2 |
4.4 |
2.1 |
0.9 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Austin Pulkowski |
100% |
6.1 |
|
0.3 |
4.2 |
10.4 |
14.9 |
18.4 |
17.0 |
13.3 |
9.1 |
5.7 |
3.3 |
1.8 |
1.1 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Evan Carr |
100% |
8.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.6 |
2.7 |
5.8 |
10.6 |
14.4 |
15.9 |
15.0 |
12.2 |
9.3 |
6.6 |
3.6 |
1.8 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Collin Pruitt |
100% |
9.4 |
|
|
0.1 |
0.8 |
2.3 |
4.4 |
8.5 |
12.6 |
14.6 |
16.2 |
13.9 |
10.9 |
7.3 |
4.5 |
2.2 |
1.2 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Will Kiel |
100% |
15.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
1.4 |
2.9 |
5.7 |
8.9 |
13.5 |
15.7 |
13.9 |
11.5 |
9.1 |
5.6 |
4.1 |
2.6 |
1.5 |
1.3 |
0.7 |
0.4 |
|
100.0% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Matt Newell |
1.0 |
96.4 |
3.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Reese Kilbarger-Stumpff |
1.5 |
3.5 |
85.4 |
9.9 |
1.1 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Andy Stohr |
2.6 |
0.1 |
8.8 |
64.8 |
18.7 |
5.6 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Austin Pulkowski |
3.8 |
|
0.8 |
14.8 |
45.1 |
22.1 |
10.8 |
4.4 |
1.5 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Evan Carr |
5.0 |
|
0.1 |
3.0 |
15.8 |
32.8 |
25.6 |
13.6 |
6.3 |
2.1 |
0.7 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Collin Pruitt |
5.8 |
|
0.0 |
0.9 |
5.9 |
17.7 |
31.6 |
21.9 |
13.2 |
6.5 |
1.9 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Will Kiel |
9.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.3 |
4.3 |
11.1 |
20.5 |
26.0 |
24.7 |
8.9 |
3.0 |
0.9 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
