Concord
Boys - Girls
2018 - 2019 - 2020
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State Rank #87
New Haven Semi-State Rank: #26
Elkhart Central Regional Rank #8
Elkhart Central Sectional Rank #8
Most Likely Finish 8th place at Regionals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 0.0%
Advance to Semi-State 16.5%
Advance to Regional 82.5%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating Ox Bow Early Bird Invite Northwood Invitational Marion Invitational Elkhart/St. Joe County Clash New Prairie Invitational New Haven Classic NIC / NLC Elkhart Central Sectional Elkhart Central Regional New Haven Semi-State
Date 8/18 8/31 9/7 9/14 9/21 9/28 10/5 10/12 10/19 10/26
Team Rating 753 603 623 635 758 809 751 780 846
Team Adjusted Rating 603 623 635 699 809 751 780 846
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Ox Bow Early Bird Invite Northwood Invitational Marion Invitational Elkhart/St. Joe County Clash New Prairie Invitational New Haven Classic NIC / NLC Elkhart Central Sectional Elkhart Central Regional New Haven Semi-State
396  Luke Owings 12 17:24 16:27 16:48 17:17 17:17 17:23 17:50 17:31 17:33 17:21 17:18 17:32
511  Noah Wright 12 17:37 17:14 16:49 16:44 16:37 17:50 17:41 17:48 18:31
667  Kevin Cruz 11 17:51 19:17 18:41 17:42 17:53 17:55 17:36 17:43 17:45 18:00 17:59
964  Andres Mejia 11 18:16 18:54 17:33 17:58 18:01 17:57 18:41 18:44 18:20 18:29
1,047  Ethan Smith 10 18:22 17:57 17:58 18:28 19:52 18:21 18:15 18:23 18:37 18:30
1,119  William Nicoson 11 18:26 17:42 18:22 18:51 18:07 17:56 18:56 18:10 18:24 19:11
1,346  Richard Pietrariu 12 18:42 18:52 19:26 18:47 19:16 19:04 18:43 18:33 18:35 18:20 18:41
1,432  Colyn Chris 9 18:49 19:26 18:08 18:53 18:31 19:18 19:23 18:28
Gage Riggle 12 19:21 19:57 19:55 19:18 19:55 19:13 19:08 19:04
Bryce Cook 11 19:24 19:19 19:48 19:42 19:06 19:46 18:50
Matthew Godzisz 9 19:36 18:59 19:30 19:24 20:17 20:05 19:25
Martin Centeno 9 19:52 21:45 20:48 19:47 19:27 19:43 19:47




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 0.0%
Semi-State 16.5% 16.7 426 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.8 3.4 5.5 4.0 0.7 0.1
Regionals 82.5% 7.1 167 2.3 5.4 8.8 12.7 16.7 16.7 13.6 6.4
Sectionals 100% 4.6 116 0.0 4.4 11.9 25.2 41.0 13.8 3.1 0.6



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team made it.



Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Luke Owings 78.4% 87.8 74.2% 78.0%
Noah Wright 36.8% 101.2 24.3% 32.0%
Kevin Cruz 17.6% 115.9 1.4% 4.3%
Andres Mejia 16.5% 143.8 0.0% 0.0%
Ethan Smith 16.5% 149.8 0.0% 0.0%
William Nicoson 16.5% 153.2 0.0% 0.0%
Richard Pietrariu 16.5% 164.8 0.0% 0.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Luke Owings 100% 20.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.9 2.7 3.3 4.2 5.0 5.0 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.7 6.1 5.5 5.5 4.9 4.4 100.0% 100.0%
Noah Wright 100% 28.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.9 2.0 2.5 2.9 3.6 3.7 4.3 4.3 100.0% 100.0%
Kevin Cruz 99.9% 37.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.1 99.3% 99.9%
Andres Mejia 89.1% 55.4 37.5% 78.7%
Ethan Smith 85.1% 61.6 14.8% 61.6%
William Nicoson 83.9% 65.9 7.9% 47.2%
Richard Pietrariu 82.6% 77.7 0.2% 9.8%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Luke Owings 10.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 5.8 15.0 13.8 12.9 10.8 9.5 8.1 6.0 4.3 3.5 2.5 1.9 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1
Noah Wright 14.8 0.1 0.3 1.7 3.8 5.1 6.6 7.6 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.1 7.5 6.7 5.9 5.2 4.4 3.4 2.6 1.7 1.4
Kevin Cruz 21.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.9 2.7 3.4 4.5 6.1 6.1 7.1 7.8 8.2 7.9 8.0 7.7 6.5
Andres Mejia 31.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.0 3.0
Ethan Smith 35.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.9
William Nicoson 38.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4
Richard Pietrariu 47.9