Decatur Central
Boys - Girls
2018 - 2019 - 2020
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State Rank #103
Shelbyville Semi-State Rank #32
Ben Davis Regional Rank #9
Ben Davis Sectional Rank #9
Most Likely Finish 6th place at Sectionals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 0.0%
Advance to Semi-State 0.0%
Advance to Regional 2.8%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating Triton Early Bird Mooresville Invitational Bishop Chatard Invitational THSB State Preview Jon Mitchell Invitational Golden Spike Invitational Mid-State Conference Marion County Ben Davis Sectional Ben Davis Regional
Date 8/19 8/27 9/4 9/7 9/14 9/21 9/28 10/5 10/12 10/19
Team Rating 825 838 759 822 834 760 838 940 838 874 937
Team Adjusted Rating 838 759 822 834 760 838 940 838 874 937
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Triton Early Bird Mooresville Invitational Bishop Chatard Invitational THSB State Preview Jon Mitchell Invitational Golden Spike Invitational Mid-State Conference Marion County Ben Davis Sectional Ben Davis Regional
505  Nate Wachnicki 12 17:36 17:58 17:52 18:06 18:32 17:34 17:28 17:49 18:06 17:43 18:12 17:18
846  Regan Overman 12 18:07 18:41 18:22 18:00 17:39 18:17 17:47 18:02 18:10 18:21 18:01 18:26
904  Michael Stinson 12 18:10 18:59 18:12 17:45 18:19 18:03 17:54 18:15 18:34 17:57 18:00 19:06
924  Avry Mason 12 18:13 17:54 18:55 17:51 17:42 18:04 17:55 18:02 18:42 18:13 18:16 18:43
989  Jack Sells 12 18:18 19:06 17:35 17:52 18:09 18:31 18:30 18:25 18:17 18:20 18:31 18:14
1,552  Riley Devening 10 18:57 19:04 18:32 18:42 18:55 18:46 19:15 19:11 19:04 18:56 18:58
Evan Williams 10 19:26 19:39 20:07 19:40 19:32 19:35 19:36 19:29 19:17 19:21 19:18
Zeeshan Siddiqui 10 20:27 20:00 19:51 19:27 20:38 22:01 21:58 19:49




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 0.0%
Semi-State 0.0%
Regionals 2.8% 8.4 218 0.1 1.7 0.9 0.2
Sectionals 100% 6.0 152 0.0 0.2 2.6 96.4 0.9



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team made it.



Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Nate Wachnicki 19.1% 109.7 19.1% 19.1%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Nate Wachnicki 100% 41.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 100.0% 100.0%
Regan Overman 99.8% 60.3 99.8% 99.8%
Michael Stinson 99.4% 62.5 99.3% 99.4%
Avry Mason 98.6% 64.0 98.6% 98.6%
Jack Sells 96.0% 66.8 95.9% 96.0%
Riley Devening 4.5% 78.0 1.7% 2.6%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Nate Wachnicki 20.3 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.9 2.8 3.8 6.1 8.2 9.8 11.4 12.0 11.7 9.4 6.8 5.1
Regan Overman 30.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 3.0 3.9
Michael Stinson 31.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.5 2.0
Avry Mason 32.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.4
Jack Sells 34.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4
Riley Devening 43.2