All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | | Preseason Rating | |
Huntington North Invitational |
Warsaw Tiger Invitational |
Penn Invitational |
THSB State Preview |
Bruin Invitational |
West Noble Invitational |
New Haven Classic |
Northrop Sectional |
West Noble Regional |
New Haven Semi-State |
State Finals |
|---|
| Date | | |
8/24 |
8/27 |
8/31 |
9/7 |
9/14 |
9/21 |
9/28 |
10/12 |
10/19 |
10/26 |
11/2 |
| Team Rating |
231 | |
257 |
729 |
257 |
189 |
650 |
195 |
200 |
246 |
308 |
245 |
233 |
| Team Adjusted Rating | | |
257 |
231 |
257 |
189 |
231 |
195 |
200 |
246 |
308 |
245 |
233 |
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating | Preseason Rating |
Huntington North Invitational |
Warsaw Tiger Invitational |
Penn Invitational |
THSB State Preview |
Bruin Invitational |
West Noble Invitational |
New Haven Classic |
Northrop Sectional |
West Noble Regional |
New Haven Semi-State |
State Finals |
|---|
| 22 |
Jarred Neff |
12 |
16:08 |
16:35 |
16:03 |
|
16:11 |
15:49 |
|
16:12 |
16:18 |
16:18 |
16:08 |
16:08 |
16:09 |
| 29 |
Keagan Stuckey |
12 |
16:11 |
16:06 |
16:30 |
|
16:14 |
16:03 |
|
16:11 |
16:01 |
16:12 |
16:21 |
16:09 |
16:14 |
| 52 |
Donny McArdle |
11 |
16:22 |
16:28 |
16:23 |
|
16:25 |
16:25 |
|
16:01 |
16:17 |
16:25 |
16:29 |
16:24 |
16:29 |
| 104 |
Ethan Baitz |
10 |
16:39 |
18:18 |
16:57 |
|
16:43 |
16:30 |
|
16:29 |
16:21 |
16:32 |
17:45 |
16:45 |
16:33 |
| 206 |
Carter Cook |
12 |
16:59 |
16:44 |
16:51 |
|
17:09 |
16:46 |
|
16:51 |
16:49 |
17:04 |
17:26 |
17:04 |
16:54 |
| 344 |
Logan Weaver |
12 |
17:19 |
17:46 |
17:11 |
|
17:39 |
17:30 |
17:25 |
17:28 |
17:21 |
17:11 |
17:02 |
17:36 |
17:17 |
| 458 |
Derek Hockemeyer |
12 |
17:32 |
18:33 |
18:26 |
17:49 |
17:16 |
17:37 |
17:39 |
17:19 |
17:21 |
|
|
|
|
| 480 |
Aidan Sheppard |
11 |
17:34 |
17:38 |
17:38 |
17:32 |
17:48 |
17:29 |
17:25 |
17:16 |
17:17 |
17:28 |
18:19 |
17:44 |
17:39 |
| 536 |
Dominic Gery |
12 |
17:38 |
16:58 |
17:30 |
17:51 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 649 |
Chase Molden |
10 |
17:49 |
17:59 |
18:05 |
|
18:04 |
17:47 |
17:46 |
17:46 |
17:42 |
|
|
|
|
| 666 |
Tyler Neff |
9 |
17:50 |
|
18:05 |
18:03 |
17:49 |
17:51 |
17:57 |
17:47 |
17:40 |
|
|
|
|
| 730 |
Jude Minich |
10 |
17:56 |
18:07 |
18:33 |
17:57 |
17:51 |
18:07 |
17:58 |
17:47 |
17:47 |
|
|
|
|
| 833 |
Tyler Peters |
11 |
18:05 |
18:38 |
|
18:10 |
18:08 |
17:56 |
18:09 |
18:26 |
17:56 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,012 |
Henry Myers |
11 |
18:19 |
18:17 |
18:58 |
19:16 |
18:23 |
18:30 |
18:00 |
18:20 |
17:46 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,244 |
Anthony Gery |
9 |
18:36 |
|
18:52 |
18:39 |
18:47 |
19:35 |
18:27 |
18:25 |
18:18 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,274 |
Ben Johnson |
10 |
18:38 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1,412 |
Ashton Hackman |
11 |
18:47 |
|
19:18 |
18:57 |
18:54 |
18:46 |
18:40 |
18:33 |
18:52 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,430 |
Grayson Welch |
9 |
18:49 |
|
18:37 |
18:46 |
18:45 |
18:44 |
18:49 |
18:50 |
19:16 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,437 |
John Sheets |
11 |
18:50 |
19:00 |
|
18:44 |
18:50 |
18:44 |
18:45 |
18:57 |
19:04 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,458 |
Spencer Hoff |
12 |
18:51 |
18:58 |
18:44 |
18:19 |
19:22 |
18:26 |
18:29 |
19:20 |
19:28 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,500 |
Justin Englehart |
11 |
18:54 |
18:40 |
19:00 |
18:58 |
18:54 |
|
18:48 |
18:59 |
18:57 |
|
|
|
|
|
Jackson Todor |
10 |
19:04 |
18:49 |
19:22 |
19:07 |
19:17 |
19:14 |
18:56 |
18:46 |
19:10 |
|
|
|
|
|
Sam Ratkos |
9 |
19:07 |
|
|
21:00 |
|
|
18:59 |
19:11 |
18:51 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carson Heckman |
9 |
19:07 |
|
19:11 |
19:07 |
19:04 |
19:10 |
18:52 |
19:10 |
19:25 |
|
|
|
|
|
Isaac Hunter |
12 |
19:15 |
19:23 |
19:38 |
19:40 |
19:27 |
19:01 |
19:07 |
19:02 |
19:23 |
|
|
|
|
|
Austin Richards |
12 |
19:26 |
16:54 |
18:53 |
18:57 |
19:31 |
19:25 |
19:28 |
19:51 |
19:41 |
|
|
|
|
|
Max Falloon |
10 |
19:38 |
|
18:55 |
|
19:06 |
20:06 |
19:20 |
20:09 |
20:01 |
|
|
|
|
|
Matthew Schuler |
11 |
19:47 |
18:26 |
19:17 |
23:20 |
18:52 |
19:08 |
19:11 |
21:07 |
24:21 |
|
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
| State Finals |
99.7% |
7.5 |
245 |
1.8 |
4.8 |
7.6 |
9.2 |
10.4 |
10.9 |
9.7 |
9.5 |
7.7 |
7.0 |
5.8 |
4.6 |
3.8 |
2.3 |
1.7 |
1.2 |
0.9 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
| Semi-State |
100% |
2.6 |
103 |
6.2 |
38.1 |
45.8 |
7.1 |
2.1 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Regionals |
100% |
2.0 |
58 |
8.2 |
87.6 |
3.7 |
0.4 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
1.9 |
47 |
8.8 |
90.5 |
0.8 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Jarred Neff |
99.8% |
28.9 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
1.5 |
1.4 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
2.2 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
2.6 |
2.5 |
2.9 |
2.7 |
3.0 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
28.6% |
96.0% |
| Keagan Stuckey |
99.8% |
33.4 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
2.4 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
32.1% |
93.0% |
| Donny McArdle |
99.7% |
54.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
0.0% |
71.8% |
| Ethan Baitz |
99.7% |
92.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0% |
20.3% |
| Carter Cook |
99.7% |
138.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.6% |
| Logan Weaver |
99.7% |
174.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Derek Hockemeyer |
99.7% |
188.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Semi-State | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Jarred Neff |
100% |
8.3 |
0.3 |
1.8 |
4.4 |
8.2 |
7.9 |
8.6 |
8.9 |
7.8 |
7.2 |
6.3 |
5.6 |
5.3 |
4.5 |
3.9 |
3.2 |
2.7 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
1.7 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
100.0% |
| Keagan Stuckey |
100% |
10.0 |
0.2 |
0.9 |
2.9 |
5.1 |
6.5 |
7.2 |
7.1 |
7.3 |
6.8 |
6.4 |
6.3 |
5.6 |
4.8 |
4.4 |
4.0 |
3.8 |
3.2 |
2.8 |
2.4 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
1.7 |
1.4 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
|
100.0% |
| Donny McArdle |
100% |
17.8 |
|
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
1.0 |
1.6 |
1.9 |
2.7 |
3.2 |
3.7 |
3.9 |
4.2 |
4.4 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.7 |
4.3 |
4.7 |
4.4 |
4.1 |
3.8 |
4.1 |
3.5 |
2.9 |
|
100.0% |
| Ethan Baitz |
100% |
32.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
2.2 |
2.4 |
2.9 |
3.0 |
|
99.5% |
| Carter Cook |
100% |
53.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
82.5% |
| Logan Weaver |
100% |
83.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
23.4% |
| Derek Hockemeyer |
100% |
103.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.4% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Jarred Neff |
100% |
5.1 |
1.5 |
6.4 |
13.4 |
13.0 |
14.5 |
13.9 |
11.1 |
9.0 |
6.3 |
4.1 |
2.4 |
1.9 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Keagan Stuckey |
100% |
6.1 |
0.6 |
3.4 |
8.1 |
11.2 |
12.3 |
13.7 |
13.0 |
10.8 |
8.5 |
5.9 |
4.6 |
3.1 |
2.0 |
1.3 |
0.9 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Donny McArdle |
100% |
9.7 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.8 |
2.0 |
4.0 |
5.6 |
7.7 |
10.0 |
11.0 |
11.7 |
11.0 |
9.5 |
7.7 |
5.5 |
4.6 |
3.5 |
2.1 |
1.3 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Ethan Baitz |
100% |
16.0 |
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
1.0 |
1.6 |
2.9 |
4.2 |
5.6 |
7.2 |
8.1 |
9.2 |
9.4 |
10.4 |
9.2 |
7.9 |
6.8 |
4.4 |
3.4 |
2.5 |
1.8 |
1.2 |
|
100.0% |
| Carter Cook |
100% |
24.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.9 |
1.3 |
2.3 |
3.1 |
4.4 |
6.1 |
7.2 |
7.4 |
7.6 |
7.4 |
6.4 |
|
100.0% |
| Logan Weaver |
100% |
39.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
1.4 |
|
97.6% |
| Derek Hockemeyer |
100% |
48.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
83.7% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Jarred Neff |
3.8 |
2.6 |
16.7 |
16.6 |
18.0 |
16.9 |
12.7 |
8.1 |
4.7 |
2.2 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Keagan Stuckey |
4.6 |
1.3 |
9.9 |
13.1 |
16.1 |
17.3 |
15.6 |
12.0 |
7.4 |
3.9 |
1.8 |
1.1 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Donny McArdle |
7.3 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
2.0 |
5.0 |
7.6 |
11.9 |
17.2 |
18.0 |
14.2 |
10.0 |
7.1 |
3.6 |
2.1 |
0.5 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Ethan Baitz |
11.4 |
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.9 |
2.1 |
4.1 |
8.8 |
13.1 |
13.1 |
17.5 |
14.7 |
14.8 |
5.4 |
2.6 |
1.1 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Carter Cook |
15.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
1.4 |
2.6 |
5.6 |
9.4 |
19.2 |
14.1 |
10.2 |
8.1 |
6.1 |
4.6 |
3.9 |
3.3 |
2.8 |
2.1 |
1.6 |
| Logan Weaver |
25.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
1.9 |
2.9 |
3.6 |
4.0 |
4.7 |
5.7 |
5.1 |
5.5 |
5.7 |
6.3 |
| Derek Hockemeyer |
31.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
1.4 |
1.9 |
2.3 |
2.8 |
|
