Penn
Boys - Girls
2018 - 2019 - 2020
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State Rank #31
New Haven Semi-State Rank: #9
Elkhart Central Regional Rank #2
Riley Sectional Rank #2
Most Likely Finish 8th place at Semi-State
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.3%
Advance to State Finals 28.8%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating Northern Indiana Conf. Stomp Penn Invitational Manchester Invitational Elkhart/St. Joe County Clash New Prairie Invitational New Haven Classic NIC / NLC Riley Sectional Elkhart Central Regional New Haven Semi-State
Date 8/24 8/31 9/7 9/14 9/21 9/28 10/5 10/12 10/19 10/26
Team Rating 413 382 368 341 446 417 419 403 418 439 443
Team Adjusted Rating 382 368 341 446 417 419 403 418 439 443
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Northern Indiana Conf. Stomp Penn Invitational Manchester Invitational Elkhart/St. Joe County Clash New Prairie Invitational New Haven Classic NIC / NLC Riley Sectional Elkhart Central Regional New Haven Semi-State
93  Mariano Retzloff 10 16:35 16:22 16:49 16:31 16:24 16:49 16:53 16:31 16:40 16:27 16:29 16:44
142  Carter Kaser 10 16:49 17:21 16:52 16:44 16:28 16:51 16:57 16:44 16:41 16:48 17:18 16:55
257  Ben Boardley 11 17:08 17:25 16:58 16:57 16:55 17:23 17:08 17:07 17:08 17:13 17:03 17:25
296  Joshua Temeles 12 17:14 17:09 17:14 17:07 17:10 17:12 16:53 18:46 17:10 17:22 17:17 17:07
357  Jason Juarez 9 17:20 17:36 17:09 17:05 17:20 17:23 17:15 17:23 17:20 17:19 17:33
464  Dillon Pottschmidt 11 17:32 16:54 16:53 18:26 18:07 17:20
469  Josiah Railton 12 17:32 17:15 17:56 18:02 17:41 17:44 17:26 17:35 17:19 17:19 17:24 17:44
514  Cohl Fox 12 17:37 17:24 17:35 17:19 17:35 17:46 19:03 17:32 17:41 17:32 17:28
539  Joey Rutten 10 17:39 17:18 17:48 17:29 17:18 17:33 17:27 18:45 17:43
657  Killian Heninger 12 17:49 18:07 17:59 17:53 17:35 17:35 17:56
780  Taylor Cussen 11 18:01 18:18 18:09 18:10 18:02 18:02 17:42 17:48 18:23
1,177  Nick Probst 9 18:30 18:44 18:52 18:41 18:45 18:12 18:12 18:27
1,325  Jaitin Soni 12 18:41 17:44 19:09 19:11 19:44 18:03 18:16 18:34
1,391  Declan O'Donnell 9 18:46 18:43 19:13 18:27 19:05 18:39 18:33 18:54
1,546  Caleb Evans 11 18:57 18:57 18:59 18:45 18:45 19:01 18:53 19:21




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 28.8% 19.0 437 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.2 2.0 2.3 3.2 3.2 3.7 3.4 3.2 2.4 1.3
Semi-State 100% 7.9 230 0.0 0.6 5.7 10.2 12.3 14.3 15.1 14.8 13.8 8.1 3.6 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Regionals 100% 1.4 56 56.5 43.0 0.5 0.0 0.0
Sectionals 100% 1.0 29 99.9 0.1



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mariano Retzloff 41.8% 67.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 18.2% 31.1%
Carter Kaser 29.2% 94.7 0.0 0.5% 3.7%
Ben Boardley 28.8% 139.6 0.0% 0.1%
Joshua Temeles 28.8% 150.3 0.0% 0.0%
Jason Juarez 28.8% 163.0 0.0% 0.0%
Dillon Pottschmidt 28.8% 180.1 0.0% 0.0%
Josiah Railton 28.8% 180.8 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mariano Retzloff 100% 28.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.4 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.9 100.0%
Carter Kaser 100% 42.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.0 99.9%
Ben Boardley 100% 65.8 0.0 0.0 96.2%
Joshua Temeles 100% 74.1 0.0 0.0 91.7%
Jason Juarez 100% 84.1 81.0%
Dillon Pottschmidt 100% 104.4 46.3%
Josiah Railton 100% 105.1 44.8%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mariano Retzloff 100% 3.9 9.2 10.9 14.9 17.1 16.8 13.3 9.3 4.6 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Carter Kaser 100% 7.3 0.2 1.2 2.1 4.5 8.4 12.8 16.3 16.7 15.2 10.1 5.9 3.1 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Ben Boardley 100% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 3.7 6.2 9.1 11.9 13.2 11.2 9.1 7.1 6.1 4.7 3.7 2.9 2.1 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.6 100.0%
Joshua Temeles 100% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.7 4.1 6.8 8.9 10.5 10.0 9.3 7.8 6.7 5.4 4.8 4.0 3.5 3.1 2.5 2.2 1.6 100.0%
Jason Juarez 100% 17.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 2.6 4.1 5.3 7.3 7.1 7.6 7.6 6.9 6.2 6.3 5.4 5.3 4.3 3.7 3.5 100.0%
Dillon Pottschmidt 100% 25.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.5 2.0 3.0 3.4 3.5 4.3 4.6 5.1 5.4 4.7 5.7 100.0%
Josiah Railton 100% 26.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.3 1.9 2.5 3.3 3.8 4.2 4.3 4.8 5.2 5.2 5.3 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mariano Retzloff 1.2 40.8 42.4 14.0 2.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Carter Kaser 2.9 2.0 14.0 39.9 34.3 6.6 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ben Boardley 5.5 0.1 1.3 10.6 28.1 20.2 13.8 9.9 6.1 4.3 3.1 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Joshua Temeles 6.9 0.3 3.7 12.3 17.9 16.9 13.7 11.1 8.9 6.7 4.4 2.4 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Jason Juarez 8.9 0.1 0.7 3.5 7.5 12.3 13.5 13.1 12.4 11.9 10.0 7.4 4.6 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Dillon Pottschmidt 12.9 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.9 4.7 6.9 9.5 11.6 14.8 16.7 15.4 11.2 2.9 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Josiah Railton 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.9 4.9 6.8 8.5 11.4 14.2 16.4 16.5 11.5 3.0 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0