All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | | Preseason Rating | |
Taylor University Invitational |
Wildcat Classic |
West Noble Invitational |
New Haven Classic |
Nike XC Town Twilight |
Woodlan Sectional |
New Haven Regional |
|---|
| Date | | |
8/26 |
9/9 |
9/16 |
9/23 |
9/30 |
10/14 |
10/21 |
| Team Rating |
437 | |
381 |
408 |
464 |
476 |
475 |
560 |
525 |
| Team Adjusted Rating | | |
381 |
408 |
393 |
414 |
401 |
463 |
462 |
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating | Preseason Rating |
Taylor University Invitational |
Wildcat Classic |
West Noble Invitational |
New Haven Classic |
Nike XC Town Twilight |
Woodlan Sectional |
New Haven Regional |
|---|
| 85 |
Evan McMahon |
11 |
16:27 |
16:34 |
16:25 |
16:27 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 210 |
Aiden Waugh |
11 |
16:53 |
17:11 |
16:47 |
16:34 |
16:37 |
16:51 |
16:47 |
17:15 |
17:17 |
| 314 |
Josh Rodgers |
11 |
17:13 |
17:34 |
17:17 |
17:13 |
17:02 |
17:22 |
16:55 |
17:17 |
17:23 |
| 391 |
Alex MacDonald |
10 |
17:22 |
17:30 |
17:18 |
17:17 |
17:29 |
|
|
|
|
| 415 |
Tyler Hess |
12 |
17:26 |
18:28 |
17:14 |
17:26 |
17:27 |
17:32 |
17:37 |
17:21 |
17:20 |
| 427 |
Cooper Knoblauch |
10 |
17:28 |
17:15 |
17:24 |
17:28 |
17:12 |
17:28 |
17:57 |
17:28 |
17:19 |
| 440 |
Britton Shumard |
12 |
17:30 |
18:55 |
17:35 |
17:46 |
17:47 |
17:16 |
17:23 |
17:42 |
17:20 |
| 533 |
Riley Lembke |
10 |
17:40 |
16:58 |
16:52 |
17:55 |
17:54 |
17:20 |
17:30 |
18:07 |
|
| 554 |
Ryan Yoder |
11 |
17:43 |
17:40 |
18:19 |
|
17:41 |
17:11 |
17:21 |
17:55 |
17:57 |
| 590 |
Aaron Lazoff |
9 |
17:47 |
|
17:55 |
18:31 |
|
17:35 |
17:41 |
|
17:40 |
| 654 |
Gideon Beall |
10 |
17:53 |
17:56 |
17:38 |
18:06 |
18:05 |
17:34 |
17:54 |
|
|
| 666 |
Tim Smith |
11 |
17:53 |
18:24 |
17:49 |
18:13 |
17:49 |
17:42 |
17:54 |
|
|
| 711 |
Ayden Cooper |
12 |
17:57 |
17:43 |
|
|
18:15 |
17:25 |
18:03 |
|
|
| 758 |
Reuben Bowie |
12 |
18:01 |
19:01 |
18:07 |
|
|
18:06 |
17:50 |
|
|
| 778 |
Owen Hill |
11 |
18:03 |
17:57 |
18:00 |
17:45 |
18:23 |
18:00 |
18:02 |
|
|
| 849 |
Andrew Gerber |
9 |
18:10 |
|
18:02 |
|
|
18:09 |
18:14 |
|
|
| 870 |
Ethan Landrigan |
9 |
18:12 |
|
18:04 |
|
|
18:12 |
18:15 |
|
|
| 1,023 |
Branson Birkey |
9 |
18:25 |
|
18:56 |
|
|
18:16 |
18:16 |
|
|
| 1,041 |
Anthony Tomaszewski |
11 |
18:27 |
18:58 |
18:12 |
|
|
18:27 |
18:33 |
|
|
| 1,061 |
Will Eckert |
10 |
18:27 |
|
18:45 |
|
|
18:17 |
18:26 |
|
|
| 1,135 |
Jack McMahon |
9 |
18:34 |
|
18:45 |
|
|
18:40 |
18:17 |
|
|
| 1,201 |
Noah Beall |
12 |
18:39 |
|
18:34 |
|
|
18:54 |
18:27 |
|
|
| 1,292 |
Gavin Sanders |
11 |
18:47 |
18:12 |
18:43 |
|
|
18:54 |
18:42 |
|
|
|
Kyle Malone |
10 |
19:05 |
|
19:10 |
|
|
18:41 |
19:24 |
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| State Finals |
16.5% |
24.6 |
605 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.9 |
3.4 |
11.9 |
| Regionals |
100% |
7.8 |
231 |
|
0.1 |
2.9 |
5.3 |
8.2 |
11.4 |
15.2 |
18.8 |
15.5 |
11.5 |
6.7 |
3.4 |
0.9 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
2.0 |
52 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Aiden Waugh |
63.0% |
163.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
55.7% |
62.1% |
| Josh Rodgers |
18.4% |
191.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.3% |
5.9% |
| Tyler Hess |
16.5% |
210.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.3% |
| Cooper Knoblauch |
16.5% |
212.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.2% |
| Britton Shumard |
16.5% |
214.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.1% |
| Riley Lembke |
16.5% |
225.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Ryan Yoder |
16.5% |
228.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Aiden Waugh |
100% |
27.7 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
1.4 |
1.7 |
2.3 |
2.7 |
3.0 |
3.2 |
3.3 |
3.6 |
3.7 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
|
100.0% |
| Josh Rodgers |
100% |
45.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
|
100.0% |
| Tyler Hess |
100% |
62.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Cooper Knoblauch |
100% |
64.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
100.0% |
| Britton Shumard |
100% |
67.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
100.0% |
| Riley Lembke |
100% |
81.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Ryan Yoder |
100% |
84.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Aiden Waugh |
5.6 |
0.0 |
1.0 |
2.3 |
3.4 |
10.6 |
53.0 |
23.6 |
4.5 |
1.3 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Josh Rodgers |
7.9 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
1.5 |
19.6 |
32.5 |
20.0 |
11.7 |
7.4 |
3.3 |
2.0 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
| Tyler Hess |
11.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
1.1 |
4.9 |
11.6 |
15.0 |
14.7 |
14.1 |
12.0 |
9.0 |
6.8 |
4.4 |
2.7 |
1.7 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
| Cooper Knoblauch |
11.7 |
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.7 |
3.6 |
9.3 |
12.6 |
14.0 |
14.9 |
12.5 |
10.6 |
7.7 |
5.6 |
3.8 |
1.9 |
1.1 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
| Britton Shumard |
12.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.4 |
2.4 |
6.7 |
10.0 |
13.4 |
13.3 |
13.7 |
12.1 |
9.1 |
6.8 |
4.4 |
3.2 |
1.8 |
1.1 |
0.7 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
| Riley Lembke |
16.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
1.3 |
2.3 |
4.7 |
7.4 |
9.2 |
11.5 |
12.1 |
12.8 |
9.8 |
8.2 |
6.2 |
4.5 |
3.4 |
2.2 |
1.5 |
1.0 |
| Ryan Yoder |
17.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.4 |
1.2 |
2.7 |
4.7 |
6.3 |
9.4 |
11.1 |
12.1 |
12.2 |
9.5 |
8.1 |
6.3 |
4.8 |
3.8 |
2.6 |
1.8 |
|
