All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | | Preseason Rating | |
Mississinewa Invitational |
Wapahani Invitational |
Manchester Invitational |
Eagle Classic |
West Noble Invitational |
Three Rivers Conference |
Manchester Sectional |
New Haven Regional |
State Finals |
|---|
| Date | | |
8/19 |
8/26 |
9/2 |
9/9 |
9/16 |
9/30 |
10/14 |
10/21 |
10/28 |
| Team Rating |
422 | |
732 |
390 |
426 |
700 |
604 |
603 |
432 |
422 |
422 |
| Team Adjusted Rating | | |
424 |
390 |
425 |
452 |
509 |
494 |
432 |
422 |
422 |
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating | Preseason Rating |
Mississinewa Invitational |
Wapahani Invitational |
Manchester Invitational |
Eagle Classic |
West Noble Invitational |
Three Rivers Conference |
Manchester Sectional |
New Haven Regional |
State Finals |
|---|
| 185 |
Jonas Church |
11 |
16:49 |
17:04 |
|
16:36 |
16:27 |
16:41 |
16:26 |
|
17:14 |
17:02 |
16:55 |
| 191 |
Kaden Vogel |
12 |
16:50 |
17:07 |
|
16:33 |
16:59 |
16:40 |
16:59 |
16:51 |
17:06 |
16:45 |
16:44 |
| 225 |
Isaiah Cordes |
10 |
16:56 |
17:40 |
|
16:54 |
17:08 |
17:32 |
17:24 |
17:11 |
16:39 |
17:02 |
16:50 |
| 372 |
Brett Shull |
10 |
17:20 |
18:17 |
17:21 |
17:44 |
17:21 |
|
|
17:40 |
17:22 |
17:11 |
17:17 |
| 374 |
Jace Bullins |
11 |
17:20 |
17:56 |
17:31 |
17:42 |
|
|
18:10 |
18:13 |
17:03 |
17:18 |
17:33 |
| 455 |
Ezra Church |
9 |
17:31 |
|
17:21 |
16:58 |
17:21 |
|
|
17:40 |
17:50 |
17:31 |
17:28 |
| 1,105 |
Chase Howard |
11 |
18:31 |
18:21 |
18:22 |
19:29 |
18:39 |
19:30 |
19:25 |
18:31 |
|
18:41 |
18:23 |
| 1,313 |
Kasen Oswalt |
11 |
18:49 |
18:46 |
19:12 |
18:38 |
18:45 |
18:32 |
18:31 |
18:52 |
19:14 |
|
|
|
Matthew Niles |
10 |
19:04 |
|
18:39 |
18:59 |
18:59 |
19:14 |
19:02 |
19:14 |
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| State Finals |
75.4% |
23.8 |
555 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
1.1 |
1.4 |
2.3 |
4.4 |
8.8 |
22.6 |
32.9 |
| Regionals |
100% |
4.5 |
171 |
0.3 |
3.1 |
32.6 |
22.4 |
17.0 |
11.5 |
6.7 |
3.8 |
1.6 |
0.7 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
2.3 |
60 |
2.7 |
71.3 |
23.9 |
2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Jonas Church |
85.3% |
157.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
40.4% |
71.8% |
| Kaden Vogel |
83.5% |
160.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
33.2% |
67.7% |
| Isaiah Cordes |
78.7% |
173.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13.6% |
48.9% |
| Brett Shull |
75.4% |
213.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
1.9% |
| Jace Bullins |
75.4% |
214.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
2.0% |
| Ezra Church |
75.4% |
224.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.1% |
| Chase Howard |
75.4% |
246.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Jonas Church |
100% |
24.3 |
|
|
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
2.3 |
2.7 |
3.0 |
3.4 |
3.7 |
3.6 |
3.9 |
4.6 |
4.8 |
4.5 |
4.8 |
4.2 |
|
100.0% |
| Kaden Vogel |
100% |
25.4 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
1.6 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.6 |
3.0 |
3.1 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
4.5 |
4.2 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
|
100.0% |
| Isaiah Cordes |
100% |
29.9 |
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.4 |
1.7 |
2.0 |
2.4 |
2.6 |
3.1 |
3.3 |
3.7 |
3.8 |
|
100.0% |
| Brett Shull |
100% |
54.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
|
100.0% |
| Jace Bullins |
100% |
54.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
|
100.0% |
| Ezra Church |
100% |
68.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Chase Howard |
100% |
159.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Jonas Church |
8.0 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
1.5 |
3.1 |
5.6 |
7.2 |
11.6 |
20.9 |
18.8 |
12.8 |
7.3 |
4.7 |
3.2 |
1.6 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Kaden Vogel |
8.3 |
0.0 |
0.5 |
1.2 |
3.0 |
4.6 |
6.5 |
10.0 |
19.2 |
19.3 |
14.4 |
8.2 |
5.8 |
3.7 |
2.1 |
1.2 |
0.5 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Isaiah Cordes |
9.7 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.8 |
1.5 |
3.0 |
4.8 |
10.2 |
15.6 |
20.9 |
14.4 |
9.7 |
7.6 |
5.5 |
3.5 |
1.7 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Brett Shull |
16.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
2.7 |
4.3 |
5.8 |
7.7 |
10.0 |
14.1 |
17.8 |
16.9 |
12.4 |
5.4 |
1.3 |
0.5 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
| Jace Bullins |
16.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
2.8 |
4.4 |
5.5 |
8.2 |
10.4 |
13.9 |
16.3 |
17.6 |
12.7 |
5.2 |
1.5 |
0.6 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
| Ezra Church |
18.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
1.2 |
1.5 |
2.8 |
4.4 |
7.9 |
13.0 |
22.9 |
27.1 |
10.5 |
4.3 |
1.9 |
1.0 |
0.5 |
| Chase Howard |
32.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.9 |
|
