All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | | Preseason Rating | |
John Cleland Invitational |
Taylor University Invitational |
Manchester Invitational |
Eagle Classic |
Wildcat/Jackson Invitational |
Flash Rock Invitational |
New Haven Classic |
XC Town Twilight |
|---|
| Date | | |
8/22 |
8/29 |
9/5 |
9/12 |
9/12 |
9/19 |
9/26 |
10/3 |
| Team Rating |
149 | |
145 |
154 |
188 |
117 |
592 |
110 |
660 |
135 |
| Team Adjusted Rating | | |
145 |
154 |
188 |
117 |
149 |
110 |
149 |
135 |
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating | Preseason Rating |
John Cleland Invitational |
Taylor University Invitational |
Manchester Invitational |
Eagle Classic |
Wildcat/Jackson Invitational |
Flash Rock Invitational |
New Haven Classic |
XC Town Twilight |
|---|
| 11 |
Jace Trevino |
12 |
15:40 |
15:43 |
15:42 |
15:44 |
16:08 |
15:32 |
|
15:28 |
|
15:32 |
| 53 |
Myles Cordes |
9 |
16:11 |
|
16:27 |
16:08 |
16:17 |
15:53 |
|
16:03 |
|
16:15 |
| 56 |
Branson Birkey |
12 |
16:13 |
16:12 |
16:10 |
16:34 |
16:23 |
16:03 |
|
16:06 |
|
16:05 |
| 58 |
Levi Cordes |
11 |
16:14 |
16:55 |
16:05 |
16:04 |
16:16 |
16:12 |
|
16:09 |
|
16:24 |
| 88 |
Jack McMahon |
12 |
16:28 |
16:21 |
16:55 |
16:31 |
16:38 |
16:24 |
|
16:13 |
|
16:13 |
| 93 |
Alexander Earls |
11 |
16:29 |
17:09 |
16:21 |
16:27 |
16:33 |
16:28 |
|
16:23 |
|
16:29 |
| 131 |
Camden Bayless |
9 |
16:42 |
|
|
17:08 |
16:37 |
16:43 |
|
16:32 |
|
16:37 |
| 137 |
Holden Miller |
9 |
16:44 |
|
16:39 |
16:36 |
16:51 |
16:53 |
|
16:25 |
|
16:51 |
| 140 |
Aaron Lazoff |
12 |
16:45 |
17:01 |
16:31 |
16:31 |
16:31 |
16:45 |
|
16:55 |
|
17:04 |
| 189 |
Tate Knoblauch |
11 |
16:56 |
16:20 |
16:35 |
16:43 |
17:10 |
17:28 |
|
|
|
16:58 |
| 301 |
Perun Piyadasa |
10 |
17:14 |
17:45 |
17:10 |
16:58 |
17:14 |
|
17:10 |
17:06 |
17:34 |
17:18 |
| 432 |
Ben Smith |
11 |
17:32 |
17:37 |
17:24 |
17:22 |
17:38 |
|
17:15 |
17:34 |
17:39 |
17:43 |
| 464 |
Reece Gardner |
9 |
17:36 |
|
17:31 |
17:56 |
17:40 |
|
17:23 |
17:16 |
17:28 |
18:01 |
| 599 |
Ethan Landrigan |
12 |
17:51 |
17:33 |
17:31 |
17:52 |
17:44 |
|
17:57 |
17:48 |
17:56 |
18:07 |
| 606 |
Jaxson McKinley |
11 |
17:52 |
18:28 |
17:47 |
17:53 |
17:54 |
|
17:49 |
17:40 |
|
|
| 643 |
Max Preston |
9 |
17:57 |
|
18:05 |
17:57 |
17:54 |
|
18:01 |
17:57 |
17:49 |
17:52 |
| 665 |
Ian Herber |
11 |
18:00 |
18:45 |
17:56 |
17:55 |
18:02 |
|
18:03 |
17:55 |
17:52 |
17:57 |
| 672 |
Eli Nowland |
12 |
18:01 |
17:50 |
18:20 |
18:07 |
18:15 |
|
17:52 |
17:56 |
17:53 |
17:44 |
| 718 |
Max Ashworth |
10 |
18:06 |
18:17 |
18:15 |
17:55 |
17:51 |
|
17:59 |
18:21 |
17:56 |
18:13 |
| 732 |
Ryan Ley |
10 |
18:07 |
18:07 |
|
17:41 |
17:58 |
|
|
18:00 |
18:28 |
18:40 |
| 848 |
Benji Joseph |
10 |
18:18 |
|
18:31 |
18:30 |
|
|
21:47 |
18:15 |
17:49 |
18:15 |
| 857 |
Andrew Gerber |
12 |
18:19 |
17:42 |
18:06 |
17:52 |
18:14 |
|
18:20 |
18:27 |
18:39 |
18:42 |
| 869 |
Daniel Jones |
12 |
18:20 |
18:08 |
18:08 |
18:09 |
18:08 |
|
|
|
18:55 |
18:44 |
| 934 |
Aaron McDonald |
12 |
18:25 |
|
17:45 |
18:14 |
18:06 |
|
18:45 |
18:14 |
19:14 |
19:18 |
| 950 |
Charlie Harrington |
10 |
18:27 |
18:37 |
18:16 |
17:59 |
18:37 |
|
18:21 |
19:05 |
18:12 |
18:34 |
| 1,010 |
Carson Gallo |
9 |
18:31 |
|
18:19 |
18:28 |
18:23 |
|
18:36 |
18:40 |
18:28 |
18:36 |
| 1,080 |
Ben Woolridge |
9 |
18:37 |
|
18:52 |
18:31 |
18:45 |
|
18:32 |
18:48 |
18:12 |
18:30 |
| 1,209 |
Reid McDonald |
12 |
18:48 |
|
18:31 |
18:38 |
19:21 |
|
18:53 |
18:35 |
|
18:57 |
| 1,281 |
Nathan Waldron |
11 |
18:53 |
18:47 |
18:52 |
|
19:09 |
|
18:47 |
18:58 |
18:42 |
18:52 |
|
Darwin Gutierrez-Phongkhamm |
11 |
19:11 |
|
|
19:41 |
19:21 |
|
19:13 |
|
18:44 |
18:56 |
|
Sam Landrigan |
9 |
19:39 |
|
20:24 |
20:28 |
19:39 |
|
19:54 |
19:15 |
19:16 |
18:52 |
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| State Finals |
100% |
3.8 |
162 |
7.5 |
17.3 |
26.5 |
20.5 |
12.4 |
6.7 |
3.6 |
2.0 |
1.5 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Regionals |
100% |
1.9 |
52 |
13.1 |
82.6 |
4.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
1.0 |
17 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Jace Trevino |
100% |
11.9 |
0.0 |
1.0 |
3.6 |
4.8 |
5.0 |
5.5 |
5.0 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
5.9 |
4.8 |
4.4 |
5.2 |
4.2 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
3.0 |
3.3 |
2.7 |
2.8 |
2.6 |
2.3 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
|
100.0% |
| Myles Cordes |
100% |
52.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
|
100.0% |
| Branson Birkey |
100% |
56.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.8 |
|
100.0% |
| Levi Cordes |
100% |
59.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
|
100.0% |
| Jack McMahon |
100% |
89.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
100.0% |
| Alexander Earls |
100% |
93.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Camden Bayless |
100% |
125.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
99.6% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Jace Trevino |
100% |
3.9 |
9.7 |
11.1 |
13.7 |
17.1 |
21.2 |
15.6 |
7.4 |
3.2 |
0.8 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Myles Cordes |
100% |
9.9 |
|
|
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
2.0 |
5.8 |
10.9 |
14.7 |
17.2 |
14.7 |
11.6 |
8.0 |
5.7 |
3.6 |
2.0 |
1.4 |
0.7 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
100.0% |
| Branson Birkey |
100% |
10.6 |
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
1.4 |
4.4 |
8.0 |
11.6 |
14.9 |
15.6 |
14.6 |
9.9 |
7.1 |
4.8 |
2.7 |
2.3 |
1.0 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Levi Cordes |
100% |
11.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.9 |
3.5 |
6.0 |
11.6 |
13.4 |
14.5 |
14.1 |
11.1 |
8.7 |
5.9 |
4.6 |
2.3 |
1.4 |
0.7 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Jack McMahon |
100% |
15.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
1.2 |
2.8 |
5.0 |
9.3 |
11.4 |
12.1 |
12.4 |
11.4 |
9.5 |
8.0 |
5.4 |
3.8 |
2.7 |
1.8 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
|
100.0% |
| Alexander Earls |
100% |
16.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
1.1 |
2.0 |
4.5 |
6.8 |
9.2 |
10.5 |
12.6 |
11.7 |
10.6 |
8.3 |
7.0 |
5.4 |
3.1 |
2.2 |
1.6 |
0.9 |
|
100.0% |
| Camden Bayless |
100% |
20.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.9 |
2.3 |
3.6 |
5.6 |
8.1 |
10.0 |
10.7 |
10.1 |
8.9 |
7.9 |
6.7 |
5.2 |
|
100.0% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Jace Trevino |
1.0 |
99.9 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Myles Cordes |
2.3 |
0.1 |
40.2 |
29.4 |
20.2 |
6.7 |
2.5 |
0.7 |
0.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Branson Birkey |
2.8 |
|
26.9 |
30.5 |
25.7 |
11.2 |
3.8 |
1.4 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Levi Cordes |
3.0 |
|
21.3 |
27.4 |
28.9 |
13.8 |
5.4 |
2.5 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Jack McMahon |
5.6 |
|
0.4 |
1.8 |
6.4 |
24.6 |
26.6 |
20.3 |
11.4 |
5.5 |
1.9 |
0.8 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Alexander Earls |
6.0 |
|
0.3 |
1.1 |
4.7 |
17.6 |
26.2 |
22.2 |
15.3 |
7.8 |
3.1 |
1.2 |
0.5 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Camden Bayless |
8.5 |
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.9 |
3.5 |
12.7 |
20.1 |
25.5 |
18.0 |
10.0 |
4.9 |
2.2 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
