All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | | Preseason Rating | |
Huntington North Invitational |
Baron Classic |
Manchester Invitational |
Wildcat/Jackson Invitational |
Flash Rock Invitational |
New Haven Classic |
NE8 Conference |
Manchester Sectional |
Manchester Regional |
|---|
| Date | | |
8/22 |
8/29 |
9/5 |
9/12 |
9/19 |
9/26 |
10/3 |
10/17 |
10/24 |
| Team Rating |
1,031 | |
1,131 |
1,160 |
968 |
1,018 |
1,061 |
1,085 |
1,075 |
1,087 |
|
| Team Adjusted Rating | | |
1,131 |
1,078 |
968 |
1,018 |
1,061 |
1,085 |
1,075 |
1,087 |
|
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating | Preseason Rating |
Huntington North Invitational |
Baron Classic |
Manchester Invitational |
Wildcat/Jackson Invitational |
Flash Rock Invitational |
New Haven Classic |
NE8 Conference |
Manchester Sectional |
Manchester Regional |
|---|
| 539 |
Caleb Thieme |
12 |
17:38 |
17:55 |
17:14 |
17:31 |
17:19 |
17:26 |
17:29 |
17:27 |
18:11 |
17:49 |
17:59 |
| 1,080 |
Cole Ellet |
12 |
18:29 |
18:39 |
18:22 |
18:21 |
18:17 |
18:18 |
18:24 |
18:39 |
18:27 |
18:33 |
18:40 |
| 1,158 |
Noah Crittendon |
11 |
18:35 |
19:04 |
22:16 |
19:33 |
19:03 |
19:09 |
19:07 |
20:31 |
18:55 |
18:34 |
18:23 |
| 1,461 |
Keegan Cohen |
10 |
18:59 |
19:45 |
19:19 |
|
18:32 |
18:33 |
19:31 |
18:41 |
18:49 |
19:43 |
|
|
Matthew Fishley |
11 |
19:16 |
|
19:27 |
19:10 |
|
19:31 |
18:48 |
19:10 |
19:34 |
18:59 |
19:25 |
|
Damon Ball |
12 |
19:58 |
20:34 |
|
21:54 |
20:57 |
19:48 |
20:13 |
19:41 |
19:09 |
20:15 |
|
|
Josh Lippe |
10 |
20:05 |
19:18 |
20:09 |
20:00 |
|
20:06 |
22:01 |
|
21:21 |
|
|
|
Hudson Tardy |
9 |
20:14 |
|
21:05 |
20:03 |
24:28 |
19:22 |
20:21 |
20:03 |
20:32 |
|
|
|
Alex Ermakov |
12 |
20:41 |
|
19:52 |
20:27 |
20:40 |
21:08 |
|
21:09 |
20:34 |
20:34 |
|
|
Lee Whitesell |
9 |
20:48 |
|
21:08 |
21:23 |
21:09 |
20:46 |
20:24 |
20:25 |
20:50 |
|
|
|
Cooper Greenwald |
10 |
24:26 |
|
25:47 |
24:26 |
24:27 |
25:34 |
|
24:33 |
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| State Finals |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Regionals |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
5.7 |
154 |
|
|
0.3 |
5.2 |
22.2 |
67.9 |
4.0 |
0.4 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Caleb Thieme |
0.3% |
207.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.3% |
0.3% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Caleb Thieme |
100% |
76.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
100.0% |
| Cole Ellet |
100% |
146.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
97.7% |
| Noah Crittendon |
100% |
154.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
92.8% |
| Keegan Cohen |
96.8% |
184.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
85.3% |
18.7% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Caleb Thieme |
12.9 |
|
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.8 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
2.4 |
4.2 |
6.2 |
9.6 |
12.0 |
12.9 |
13.4 |
14.3 |
10.6 |
5.2 |
2.9 |
1.2 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
| Cole Ellet |
27.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.8 |
1.1 |
2.0 |
3.4 |
4.8 |
5.2 |
6.4 |
7.1 |
| Noah Crittendon |
30.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.9 |
1.6 |
2.1 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
4.5 |
| Keegan Cohen |
38.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
