All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | | Preseason Rating | |
Tiger Invite |
Northern Lakes Conference |
Marion Invitational |
NLC Round Robin #2 |
Flash Rock Invitational |
Culver Academies Invitational |
Northern Lakes Conference |
Manchester Sectional |
Manchester Regional |
State Finals |
|---|
| Date | | |
8/16 |
9/1 |
9/5 |
9/15 |
9/19 |
9/26 |
10/3 |
10/17 |
10/24 |
10/31 |
| Team Rating |
478 | |
412 |
518 |
369 |
504 |
440 |
671 |
490 |
553 |
469 |
|
| Team Adjusted Rating | | |
412 |
518 |
369 |
504 |
440 |
490 |
490 |
553 |
469 |
|
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating | Preseason Rating |
Tiger Invite |
Northern Lakes Conference |
Marion Invitational |
NLC Round Robin #2 |
Flash Rock Invitational |
Culver Academies Invitational |
Northern Lakes Conference |
Manchester Sectional |
Manchester Regional |
State Finals |
|---|
| 244 |
Jaxon Lehman |
12 |
17:01 |
17:35 |
16:46 |
16:57 |
16:40 |
17:27 |
17:39 |
17:02 |
16:57 |
17:01 |
16:56 |
16:54 |
| 333 |
Eli Swinehart |
10 |
17:13 |
17:54 |
17:00 |
17:20 |
16:49 |
17:01 |
16:56 |
|
17:20 |
17:47 |
17:21 |
|
| 341 |
Luke Vander Bie |
10 |
17:14 |
18:33 |
17:12 |
17:07 |
16:52 |
17:38 |
16:56 |
|
17:07 |
17:29 |
17:03 |
|
| 356 |
Keenan Lyions |
11 |
17:16 |
18:05 |
16:57 |
17:27 |
17:07 |
17:06 |
17:11 |
17:16 |
17:27 |
17:20 |
17:29 |
|
| 385 |
Nolan Stump |
12 |
17:19 |
17:39 |
18:26 |
17:20 |
17:25 |
17:20 |
17:24 |
17:26 |
17:20 |
17:22 |
17:08 |
|
| 492 |
Jadon Flamm |
9 |
17:33 |
|
17:13 |
17:50 |
17:11 |
17:58 |
17:14 |
|
17:50 |
|
|
|
| 532 |
Brady Dewey |
9 |
17:37 |
|
17:32 |
17:29 |
17:37 |
17:29 |
17:18 |
|
17:29 |
17:53 |
17:39 |
|
| 546 |
Jack Boggs |
12 |
17:39 |
17:59 |
17:30 |
17:40 |
17:04 |
17:59 |
17:16 |
17:44 |
17:40 |
17:50 |
17:45 |
|
| 772 |
Alek Lantz |
9 |
18:03 |
|
18:05 |
19:39 |
17:56 |
17:50 |
18:13 |
|
19:39 |
|
|
|
| 931 |
Logan Martin |
10 |
18:17 |
|
18:32 |
18:08 |
17:52 |
18:21 |
18:50 |
|
18:08 |
|
|
|
| 1,392 |
Owen Meerzo |
12 |
18:54 |
18:33 |
18:24 |
18:54 |
19:05 |
18:58 |
18:54 |
18:59 |
18:54 |
|
|
|
|
Henry Schotter |
9 |
19:04 |
|
19:17 |
19:01 |
|
19:04 |
19:06 |
|
19:01 |
|
|
|
|
Benjamin Mort |
12 |
19:07 |
19:13 |
19:45 |
18:55 |
19:11 |
18:58 |
19:17 |
19:01 |
18:55 |
|
|
|
|
Grayson Waldo |
12 |
19:23 |
|
18:56 |
19:09 |
19:42 |
19:26 |
20:17 |
19:00 |
19:09 |
|
|
|
|
Benjamin Maile |
9 |
19:25 |
|
19:00 |
19:34 |
19:14 |
19:38 |
19:04 |
|
19:34 |
|
|
|
|
Clint Douglas |
10 |
19:37 |
|
|
18:52 |
20:11 |
19:39 |
|
|
18:52 |
|
|
|
|
Caleb Poorman |
12 |
19:51 |
|
18:59 |
20:00 |
20:09 |
19:36 |
20:00 |
|
20:00 |
|
|
|
|
Roosevelt Hoffert |
9 |
19:58 |
|
18:47 |
19:58 |
19:44 |
20:11 |
20:56 |
|
19:58 |
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| State Finals |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Regionals |
100% |
6.2 |
224 |
|
|
0.0 |
1.7 |
41.3 |
25.6 |
14.8 |
8.2 |
4.6 |
2.2 |
1.1 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
1.2 |
34 |
84.1 |
15.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Jaxon Lehman |
64.3% |
177.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
64.3% |
64.3% |
| Eli Swinehart |
19.0% |
192.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
19.0% |
19.0% |
| Luke Vander Bie |
17.8% |
193.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
17.8% |
17.8% |
| Keenan Lyions |
12.1% |
194.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12.1% |
12.1% |
| Nolan Stump |
6.8% |
198.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6.8% |
6.8% |
| Jack Boggs |
0.0% |
213.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Jaxon Lehman |
100% |
36.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Eli Swinehart |
100% |
48.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
|
100.0% |
| Luke Vander Bie |
100% |
49.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
|
100.0% |
| Keenan Lyions |
100% |
51.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.1 |
|
100.0% |
| Nolan Stump |
100% |
54.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
|
100.0% |
| Brady Dewey |
100% |
75.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Jack Boggs |
100% |
76.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Jaxon Lehman |
3.3 |
1.9 |
16.5 |
23.0 |
29.6 |
16.0 |
7.4 |
3.6 |
1.2 |
0.6 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Eli Swinehart |
6.2 |
0.0 |
1.0 |
4.1 |
8.2 |
15.6 |
17.8 |
16.7 |
15.2 |
9.6 |
6.0 |
3.2 |
1.6 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Luke Vander Bie |
6.4 |
0.1 |
0.7 |
3.3 |
7.9 |
13.8 |
17.0 |
17.7 |
14.5 |
10.9 |
7.0 |
3.7 |
2.1 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Keenan Lyions |
6.9 |
0.0 |
0.5 |
2.2 |
4.9 |
11.3 |
15.4 |
16.9 |
16.3 |
13.7 |
9.6 |
4.8 |
2.2 |
1.2 |
0.7 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Nolan Stump |
7.9 |
|
0.2 |
0.8 |
2.7 |
5.3 |
10.3 |
14.3 |
17.4 |
18.6 |
13.7 |
7.8 |
4.4 |
2.6 |
1.3 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Brady Dewey |
12.7 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.9 |
2.5 |
6.7 |
12.6 |
16.8 |
15.4 |
14.9 |
13.1 |
8.5 |
4.4 |
1.9 |
1.1 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
| Jack Boggs |
13.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
1.6 |
5.8 |
10.0 |
13.5 |
15.9 |
15.7 |
14.9 |
11.0 |
6.3 |
2.7 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
0.0 |
|
