Carmel
Boys - Girls
2015 - 2016 - 2017
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State Rank #1
Shelbyville Semi-State Rank: #1
Noblesville Regional Rank: #1
Noblesville Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 1st place at State Finals
State Champion 99.4%
Top 5 at State Finals 100.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 100.0%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating Taylor University Invitational Hamilton County Championships THSB State Preview Brown County Eagle Classic Trinity/Valkyrie Invitational Culver Academies Invitational Metro Interscholastic Conference Noblesville Sectional Noblesville Regional Shelbyville Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/27 8/30 9/3 9/10 9/17 9/24 9/24 10/8 10/15 10/22 10/29
Team Rating 40 376 394 82 128 44 53 348 146 191 36 52
Team Adjusted Rating 40 40 45 39 44 53 40 48 44 36 52
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Taylor University Invitational Hamilton County Championships THSB State Preview Brown County Eagle Classic Trinity/Valkyrie Invitational Culver Academies Invitational Metro Interscholastic Conference Noblesville Sectional Noblesville Regional Shelbyville Semi-State State Finals
2  Sarah Leinheiser 12 17:56 17:39 17:39 17:45 17:54 18:08 17:54 18:47
4  Christina Geisler 12 18:16 18:25 18:07 18:03 18:29 18:26 18:25 18:14
5  Maddie Dalton 11 18:20 18:32 18:43 18:33 18:27 18:35 18:28 18:20 18:13
9  Phoebe Bates 9 18:29 18:29 18:38 18:43 18:36 18:22 18:22
12  Rachel Anderson 12 18:35 19:16 18:33 18:27 18:47 18:40 18:43 18:24 18:42
97  Izza Khurram 10 19:43 20:45 20:54 20:43 20:43 20:22 19:50 20:14 19:26 20:13
116  Lily McAndrews 9 19:51 19:30 19:40 19:51 20:20
120  Tasha Geisler 11 19:52 19:56 19:47 19:56 20:25 19:49 19:37 20:15
129  Sydney Haines 9 19:55 20:28 19:54 19:45 20:05 19:52 19:46
166  Elizabeth Borlik 12 20:08 20:17 19:53 20:17 20:07 20:08 19:52 20:30 20:12
199  Anna Morozov 11 20:20 20:22 20:12 20:28 20:42 20:13 20:18 20:16
202  Daphne Boom 12 20:21 19:38 20:05 19:40 19:40 19:50 20:50 19:43 21:23 21:26
229  Lindsey Roper 10 20:29 20:31 20:32 20:41 20:30 20:19 20:29
258  Eva Brungard 10 20:34 20:10 20:34 20:36 20:23 20:44
276  Brittany Langland 12 20:37 21:57 20:18 20:52 20:50 20:33
283  Emily Hand 9 20:38 20:22 21:00 20:34
373  Emily Ashburn 12 20:55 20:26 20:59 20:50 21:03 20:53 20:33 21:20
381  Megan Kueber 11 20:56 21:45 20:15 21:37 21:21 20:57 20:39
486  Emma Wright 10 21:20 20:56 21:50 21:31 21:05 21:26 21:32 20:56
532  Adell Urtel 10 21:30 21:39 21:26 21:29 21:17 21:36 21:23 21:47
572  Olivia Shafer 11 21:37 21:27 21:04 21:39 21:44 21:35 21:50 21:42
589  Paige Ohrvall 9 21:40 23:01 21:40 21:25 22:54 21:17 21:13
610  Kierstyn Guerrant 9 21:43 22:09 22:03 21:50 21:52 21:32 21:13
647  Martha Hunter 9 21:50 21:16 22:07 21:15 21:32 22:37 22:17
650  Elle Nichol 9 21:50 22:15 22:13 22:08 21:56 21:37 21:18
710  Madalyn Sailors 9 22:00 22:30 22:14 21:52 21:56 21:47
762  Mea McCormack 10 22:08 21:29 21:48 22:01 21:54 22:41 21:54 22:42
800  Anna Nelsen 11 22:15 22:13 22:53 22:16 21:57 22:15
837  Halle Welch 9 22:20 22:28 22:33 22:41 22:20 22:06 22:11
925  Abby Hamachek 11 22:30 22:44 22:37 22:36 22:15
1,054  Nevian Brown 12 22:45 23:21 22:45 22:53 22:26
1,159  Alyson Pickering 10 22:59 21:51 23:33 21:39 22:54 23:31 23:00
1,178  TÈa Snider 12 23:02 23:13 23:03 23:17 22:46
1,186  Jena Arnett 11 23:03 21:55 22:52 22:00 23:25 22:44 24:21
1,221  Sophia Casati 10 23:07 23:23 23:12 23:15 23:16 22:48
1,400  Dani Bouillet 10 23:30 23:23 23:48 23:16 23:39
Colleen Harless 9 23:33 23:40 23:37 23:42 23:39 23:19
Hope Stauffer 10 23:34 23:52 23:31 23:42 23:26 23:33
Cory Steele 11 23:49 23:48 23:19 24:59 23:41
Summer Snyder 11 23:51 24:05 23:13 23:51 24:06
Alyssa Easton 11 24:33 19:42 29:41 28:20 20:37 29:07




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 1.0 38 99.4 0.6 0.0 0.0
Semi-State 100% 1.0 21 99.9 0.1
Regionals 100% 1.0 18 100.0
Sectionals 100% 1.0 18 100.0



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sarah Leinheiser 100% 1.5 33.6 33.8 15.5 7.6 4.0 2.0 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Christina Geisler 100% 5.0 1.5 6.8 14.9 14.8 12.4 10.3 7.8 6.4 5.1 3.9 3.1 2.6 2.1 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 100.0%
Maddie Dalton 100% 6.3 0.6 3.5 8.9 11.9 11.9 10.7 8.4 7.4 6.4 5.2 4.4 3.6 3.0 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 100.0%
Phoebe Bates 100% 10.0 0.1 0.8 2.4 4.5 6.4 7.4 7.8 7.6 6.8 6.4 5.9 5.4 4.9 4.1 3.7 3.3 2.8 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 100.0%
Rachel Anderson 100% 13.1 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.0 4.3 5.2 5.7 6.4 5.7 5.9 5.6 5.1 4.9 4.2 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.6 100.0%
Izza Khurram 100% 101.3 0.0 0.0 14.5%
Lily McAndrews 100% 103.1 12.8%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sarah Leinheiser 100% 1.0 83.0 12.2 3.2 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Christina Geisler 100% 2.4 5.9 35.4 24.6 14.3 7.9 4.6 3.0 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Maddie Dalton 100% 3.0 2.6 21.2 25.4 18.6 11.6 7.8 4.9 3.1 1.7 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Phoebe Bates 100% 4.8 0.5 5.5 12.0 18.2 18.1 13.1 9.3 7.1 4.9 3.6 2.5 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Rachel Anderson 100% 6.1 0.1 1.8 5.5 10.7 15.9 15.3 11.6 9.8 7.7 6.2 4.6 3.2 2.5 1.7 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Izza Khurram 100% 39.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.8 93.9%
Lily McAndrews 100% 41.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.6 92.5%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sarah Leinheiser 100% 1.0 87.7 9.4 2.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
Christina Geisler 100% 2.0 6.7 44.8 26.7 12.5 5.3 2.3 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Maddie Dalton 100% 2.6 3.2 27.4 32.3 18.9 9.9 4.4 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Phoebe Bates 100% 3.9 0.5 7.0 17.0 28.0 21.0 11.1 6.9 4.2 2.4 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Rachel Anderson 100% 4.8 0.2 2.5 7.9 17.2 28.3 17.0 10.7 7.5 4.4 2.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Izza Khurram 100% 22.6 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.0 4.1 4.3 4.7 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.3 5.3 5.0 4.9 4.9 100.0%
Lily McAndrews 100% 23.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.6 3.3 4.1 4.4 4.7 5.3 5.0 5.3 5.4 4.7 4.8 4.6 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sarah Leinheiser 1.0 88.1 9.2 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Christina Geisler 2.0 6.5 44.2 26.9 12.8 5.5 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1
Maddie Dalton 2.6 3.3 27.3 33.0 18.6 9.9 4.3 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Phoebe Bates 3.9 0.5 7.8 16.8 28.2 20.6 11.6 6.7 3.8 2.3 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rachel Anderson 4.8 0.2 2.6 7.4 17.5 27.6 16.6 11.1 8.1 4.5 2.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0
Izza Khurram 21.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 2.2 3.6 4.7 5.0 6.1 6.4 6.5 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.4 6.2 5.5
Lily McAndrews 21.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.1 3.8 4.7 5.3 5.9 6.3 6.7 6.8 6.1 6.0 6.0 5.6