Chesterton
Boys - Girls
2015 - 2016 - 2017
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State Rank #43
New Prairie Semi-State Rank: #11
New Prairie Regional Rank: #4
Chesterton Sectional Rank #4
Most Likely Finish 11th place at Semi-State
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 0.1%
Advance to Semi-State 98.7%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating NIC Stomp Marion Invitational Bob Thomas Invitational New Prairie Invitational MacNider Invitational Duneland Athletic Conference Chesterton Sectional New Prairie Regional New Prairie Semi-State
Date 8/20 9/3 9/10 9/17 9/24 10/1 10/8 10/15 10/22
Team Rating 508 490 490 474 556 528 538 510 455 557
Team Adjusted Rating 490 488 474 556 528 538 510 455 557
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating NIC Stomp Marion Invitational Bob Thomas Invitational New Prairie Invitational MacNider Invitational Duneland Athletic Conference Chesterton Sectional New Prairie Regional New Prairie Semi-State
181  Shelby Bullock 10 20:13 20:01 20:00 20:13 20:20 19:57 21:13 20:18 20:04 20:13
186  Kara Krol 10 20:15 19:40 20:49 20:14 20:17 21:04 20:20 20:07 20:16 19:54 20:41
212  Cara Sullivan 12 20:24 19:55 20:54 20:33 20:17 20:25 20:20 20:17 20:27 20:22 20:38
541  Lindsey Nielsen 12 21:32 21:18 21:19 22:10 21:12 21:40 22:05 21:24 21:36 21:22 21:27
587  Meghan Hull 9 21:40 22:07 21:39 21:50 21:33 21:32 21:18 21:58
638  Rachel Hoffman 11 21:48 20:27 21:00 21:14 21:36 21:31 22:42 21:48 22:37
660  Sarah Schimpf 10 21:52 20:36 21:04 21:54 21:28 21:51 22:20 22:07
713  Rebecca White 10 22:00 21:50 21:42 21:49 21:38 21:54 22:25 22:52 22:00
930  Kylie Mercier 11 22:31 21:35 23:20 23:42 22:30 22:44 22:58 22:19 22:13 22:15
1,086  Elizabeth Canright 11 22:49 21:07 22:19 22:41 23:01 23:08 23:05 22:35
1,148  Madeline Moss 10 22:58 21:55 22:37 23:03 22:56 23:08 23:33
1,209  Tara Kenney 12 23:06 23:12 23:36 22:58 23:25 22:53 22:58
1,231  Makayla Barbour 10 23:08 24:26 23:01 23:43 22:35 23:00
1,369  Peyton Westphal 9 23:25 23:31 24:08 23:11 23:57 23:10 23:13
1,385  Libby Boster 9 23:27 23:40 24:34 23:36 24:03 22:50 22:56
Julia Lecy 11 23:32 20:56 22:35 22:59 24:08 23:57
Madison Estill 11 23:33 23:15 23:31 23:53
Gabby Rhed 11 24:18 23:14 25:15 24:20 24:31 24:09




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 0.1% 21.6 485 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
Semi-State 98.7% 11.0 297 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 5.5 18.4 51.1 13.3 5.1 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0
Regionals 100% 4.0 112 0.1 4.4 87.1 7.0 1.3 0.1
Sectionals 100% 3.9 90 0.2 6.0 93.6 0.2



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Shelby Bullock 3.3% 113.0 3.1% 3.2%
Kara Krol 1.0% 122.0 0.9% 0.9%
Cara Sullivan 0.6% 118.5 0.5% 0.5%
Lindsey Nielsen 0.1% 181.5 0.0% 0.0%
Meghan Hull 0.1% 190.7 0.0% 0.0%
Rachel Hoffman 0.1% 194.0 0.0% 0.0%
Sarah Schimpf 0.1% 192.0 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Shelby Bullock 100% 37.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.7 1.9 100.0% 100.0%
Kara Krol 100% 44.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 100.0% 100.0%
Cara Sullivan 100% 48.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 100.0% 100.0%
Lindsey Nielsen 98.7% 125.9 0.8% 33.0%
Meghan Hull 98.7% 132.3 0.0% 18.8%
Rachel Hoffman 98.7% 138.2 0.0% 8.6%
Sarah Schimpf 98.7% 140.3 0.0% 5.8%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Shelby Bullock 100% 10.6 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.6 6.1 9.6 11.8 12.0 10.4 9.6 7.8 6.3 4.9 4.5 3.5 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 100.0%
Kara Krol 100% 12.9 0.0 0.4 0.9 2.5 4.2 6.2 8.0 9.5 9.9 9.3 8.5 7.8 6.3 5.8 4.4 3.7 3.1 3.1 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.8 100.0%
Cara Sullivan 100% 13.9 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 3.0 4.8 6.4 8.0 8.7 9.1 8.3 7.8 7.4 6.1 5.4 5.0 4.3 3.9 2.6 2.1 1.6 1.3 100.0%
Lindsey Nielsen 100% 38.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 100.0%
Meghan Hull 100% 42.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Rachel Hoffman 100% 45.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Sarah Schimpf 100% 46.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Shelby Bullock 8.2 0.0 1.8 6.6 11.4 13.5 14.4 13.1 9.2 7.7 5.8 4.7 3.4 2.8 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Kara Krol 10.0 0.4 2.1 5.2 8.4 10.9 11.4 11.2 9.3 8.3 7.1 6.1 5.2 4.2 3.3 2.5 1.7 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1
Cara Sullivan 11.0 0.2 1.6 3.6 6.4 8.6 10.0 10.4 9.6 8.5 8.0 7.1 6.4 4.9 4.3 3.7 2.6 1.8 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.0
Lindsey Nielsen 28.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.3 3.4 5.1
Meghan Hull 29.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.7
Rachel Hoffman 31.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8
Sarah Schimpf 31.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6