Concordia Lutheran
Boys - Girls
2015 - 2016 - 2017
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State Rank #36
New Haven Semi-State Rank: #9
West Noble Regional Rank: #6
Northrop Sectional Rank #6
Most Likely Finish 7th place at Regionals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 13.4%
Advance to Semi-State 41.3%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating Huntington North Invitational DeKalb Classic Bruin Invitational New Prairie Invitational Culver Academies Invitational Summit Athletic Conference Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/20 8/27 9/10 9/17 9/24 10/1 10/8 10/15 10/22 10/29
Team Rating 432 545 420 485 530 751 454 602 542
Team Adjusted Rating 439 420 429 408 493 454 466 415
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Huntington North Invitational DeKalb Classic Bruin Invitational New Prairie Invitational Culver Academies Invitational Summit Athletic Conference Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
65  Hannah Martin 12 19:29 19:46 19:18 19:37 19:28 19:17 19:28 19:45 19:44 19:32 19:23
109  Paige Boatright 12 19:48 19:38 20:03 19:21 19:57 19:54
341  Carmen Trier 11 20:47 22:05 21:00 20:36 21:47 20:37 20:39 20:26 21:09
442  Ellie Cates 9 21:10 21:48 21:31 21:43 21:23 22:01 21:36 21:24 20:48 21:25
455  Natalie Witmer 10 21:12 21:49 20:56 20:57 20:45 21:14 21:29 21:25
574  Abbey Brennan 11 21:37 21:25 21:24 21:12 21:04 21:45 22:18 22:09
731  Haley Ulmer 10 22:03 21:59 21:54 22:13 21:51 21:53 22:30
883  Abbey Bentz 12 22:26 22:29 21:27 21:28 21:59 22:38 22:42 23:22
1,243  Grace Pennekamp 9 23:11 23:23 23:07 23:26 23:19 22:59
1,350  Alaina Stellwagen 12 23:24 22:27 22:50 23:10 24:50 25:49 23:16 22:48 23:13
Jada Shaw 11 23:41 24:54 23:37 23:28 23:32 23:43
Mary Pennekamp 9 24:00 24:14 24:01 24:31 24:06 23:16
Brianna Baughman 12 24:23 23:12 23:06 24:56




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 13.4% 21.5 487 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.6 2.4 3.3 2.9 1.4
Semi-State 41.3% 7.0 215 0.0 1.4 4.0 8.0 11.9 13.4 2.1 0.4 0.0
Regionals 100% 5.6 134 11.0 13.4 17.0 24.6 34.1
Sectionals 100% 4.1 113 28.1 33.5 38.4



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Hannah Martin 81.6% 65.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 78.7% 81.4%
Paige Boatright 36.6% 85.3 0.0 0.0 26.7% 33.4%
Carmen Trier 13.4% 158.9 0.0% 0.0%
Natalie Witmer 13.4% 181.5 0.0% 0.0%
Ellie Cates 13.4% 185.0 0.0% 0.0%
Abbey Brennan 13.4% 194.8 0.0% 0.0%
Haley Ulmer 13.4% 201.4 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Hannah Martin 100% 17.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.0 3.1 4.6 6.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 6.6 5.9 5.6 4.9 4.8 4.2 3.4 3.2 3.0 100.0% 100.0%
Paige Boatright 100.0% 28.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.5 2.1 2.2 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.7 3.7 3.9 4.1 100.0% 100.0%
Carmen Trier 62.5% 67.4 36.1% 51.7%
Natalie Witmer 41.9% 83.5 1.1% 7.1%
Ellie Cates 41.5% 86.4 0.4% 4.3%
Abbey Brennan 41.3% 99.4 0.0% 0.2%
Haley Ulmer 41.3% 118.0 0.0% 0.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Hannah Martin 100% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 3.9 6.7 11.6 14.9 12.8 10.5 8.5 6.7 5.1 4.2 3.6 2.8 2.1 1.7 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.3 100.0%
Paige Boatright 100% 17.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.9 5.2 5.8 7.3 7.5 7.2 6.9 7.3 6.9 7.2 6.8 6.3 5.7 5.5 4.6 100.0%
Carmen Trier 100% 33.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 100.0%
Natalie Witmer 100% 44.3 0.0 0.0 98.2%
Ellie Cates 100% 46.6 0.0 96.6%
Abbey Brennan 100% 56.9 74.8%
Haley Ulmer 100% 63.6 22.9%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Hannah Martin 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.1 4.2 7.8 15.2 23.9 13.2 8.8 7.0 5.1 4.2 3.1 1.9 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Paige Boatright 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.1 5.0 11.4 10.1 9.5 9.1 8.7 8.5 8.9 7.6 6.9 5.7 4.4 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.0
Carmen Trier 24.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 2.3 9.1 9.6 9.9 11.0 10.8
Natalie Witmer 30.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.7
Ellie Cates 32.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.7
Abbey Brennan 37.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Haley Ulmer 43.4