Elkhart Central
Boys - Girls
2015 - 2016 - 2017
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State Rank #103
New Haven Semi-State Rank: #29
Elkhart Central Regional Rank: #10
Elkhart Central Sectional Rank #10
Most Likely Finish 10th place at Regionals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 0.0%
Advance to Semi-State 0.4%
Advance to Regional 91.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating NIC Stomp Ox Bow Meet Elkhart/St. Joseph County Clash New Prairie Invitational Culver Academies Invitational Northern Indiana Conference Elkhart Central Sectional Elkhart Central Regional New Haven Semi-State
Date 8/20 9/1 9/10 9/17 9/24 10/1 10/8 10/15 10/22
Team Rating 943 1,018 930 1,042 1,087 945 921 899 904
Team Adjusted Rating 1,018 930 1,042 1,087 909 921 899 904
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating NIC Stomp Ox Bow Meet Elkhart/St. Joseph County Clash New Prairie Invitational Culver Academies Invitational Northern Indiana Conference Elkhart Central Sectional Elkhart Central Regional New Haven Semi-State
540  Lauren Dibley 9 21:32 22:33 22:02 21:37 21:42 21:21 21:21 21:31 21:10 21:37
808  Emma Romero 11 22:16 21:48 22:48 21:30 22:39 22:50 22:30 22:16 22:07 21:54
835  Stacy Dibley 12 22:20 22:26 22:28 22:09 22:47 23:48 22:15 21:56 22:00 22:21
987  Margo Southern 10 22:37 22:54 22:56 23:01 22:53 22:21 22:02 22:47 22:30 22:48
1,068  Hadley Malloy 10 22:47 22:17 22:06 22:37 23:28 23:14 22:48 22:39 22:39
Antonia Hiland 9 23:34 22:50 23:13 23:36 24:23 23:31 23:41
Daniela Garces 11 23:35 23:00 23:31 23:39
Jordan Johnson 12 24:00 22:54 23:56 23:33 24:08 23:52 23:23 24:05 24:17 24:26
Samantha Shrider 12 24:19 24:13 24:25 24:22 24:04 24:00 24:40 24:27




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 0.0%
Semi-State 0.4% 17.6 442 0.0 0.1 0.2
Regionals 91.0% 9.3 216 0.4 1.6 3.9 10.0 24.8 50.3
Sectionals 100% 4.9 152 2.6 14.2 74.1 7.0 1.5 0.4 0.1



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team made it.



Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Lauren Dibley 71.4% 98.8 71.3% 71.4%
Emma Romero 1.8% 120.1 1.4% 1.5%
Stacy Dibley 1.2% 122.8 0.8% 0.8%
Margo Southern 0.4% 130.3 0.0% 0.0%
Hadley Malloy 0.4% 135.8 0.0% 0.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Lauren Dibley 100% 30.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.4 100.0% 100.0%
Emma Romero 96.5% 50.6 60.6% 85.3%
Stacy Dibley 95.3% 52.0 47.8% 79.7%
Margo Southern 91.6% 61.6 7.2% 44.4%
Hadley Malloy 91.1% 66.8 1.2% 25.6%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Lauren Dibley 17.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 5.1 21.1 19.6 15.5 10.6 8.3 5.8 4.1 2.9 1.6 0.9
Emma Romero 27.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.4 3.4 4.6 6.1 6.5
Stacy Dibley 29.3 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.9 2.6 3.4 4.0 5.5
Margo Southern 35.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.2
Hadley Malloy 39.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2