Northridge
Boys - Girls
2015 - 2016 - 2017
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State Rank #21
New Haven Semi-State Rank: #4
Elkhart Central Regional Rank: #2
Elkhart Central Sectional Rank #2
Most Likely Finish 22nd place at State Finals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 2.0%
Advance to State Finals 81.7%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating Huntington North Invitational Elkhart/St. Joseph County Clash New Prairie Invitational New Haven Invitational Northern Lakes Conference Elkhart Central Sectional Elkhart Central Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/20 9/10 9/17 9/24 10/1 10/8 10/15 10/22 10/29
Team Rating 335 484 372 414 345 459 451 385 351 330
Team Adjusted Rating 417 372 353 345 420 402 356 351 330
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Huntington North Invitational Elkhart/St. Joseph County Clash New Prairie Invitational New Haven Invitational Northern Lakes Conference Elkhart Central Sectional Elkhart Central Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
72  Mariah King 12 19:32 19:49 20:52 20:09 19:55 19:47 19:52 19:46 19:44 19:28 19:24
125  Jenna Miller 11 19:53 19:48 20:25 19:56 19:32 19:55 21:18 20:45 20:20 19:38 19:48
180  McKenzie Love 12 20:13 20:36 19:50 20:09 20:21 20:23 20:36 20:06 19:58 20:22
226  Mackenzie Adams 11 20:28 19:46 20:44 20:11 21:32 20:29 20:20 20:30 20:26 20:39 20:36
290  Caitlin Clark 9 20:38 21:04 21:01 20:30 21:08 20:30
517  Hanna Durbin 12 21:26 22:08 22:20 21:17 21:20 21:10 21:16 22:28 21:07 21:15 22:00
612  Alison Bache 9 21:43 23:09 22:03 21:33 21:18 21:28 21:29 22:09
676  Molly Campbell 11 21:54 22:03 21:39 21:48 21:33 22:03 22:04 22:09 21:56
815  Jenna Bradberry 10 22:17 21:14 21:46 22:25 21:59 22:45 22:24
924  Melissa Bailey 11 22:30 22:47 22:40 22:23 22:21
1,192  Michelle Schwartz 10 23:03 22:54 23:49 22:51 23:00
1,197  Sami Moore 9 23:04 23:30 23:25 23:00 22:30




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 81.7% 18.7 439 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 2.0 2.7 3.2 4.5 5.5 6.2 7.1 8.3 8.5 9.0 9.9 8.1 3.3
Semi-State 100% 5.1 181 0.1 5.3 36.2 25.2 15.0 10.0 7.0 1.1 0.2 0.0
Regionals 100% 1.9 51 7.7 91.2 1.1 0.0
Sectionals 100% 1.0 30 98.6 1.4



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mariah King 89.1% 70.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 40.3% 71.7%
Jenna Miller 82.0% 107.7 1.4% 16.3%
McKenzie Love 81.7% 131.6 0.1% 1.9%
Mackenzie Adams 81.7% 148.6 0.0% 0.2%
Caitlin Clark 81.7% 161.7 0.0% 0.0%
Hanna Durbin 81.7% 194.5 0.0% 0.0%
Alison Bache 81.7% 199.4 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mariah King 100% 18.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.5 3.6 5.4 5.8 6.3 6.4 6.1 5.8 5.6 5.2 4.8 4.4 4.0 3.8 3.1 100.0%
Jenna Miller 100% 34.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.6 100.0%
McKenzie Love 100% 46.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 100.0%
Mackenzie Adams 100% 55.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Caitlin Clark 100% 63.7 0.0 100.0%
Hanna Durbin 100% 97.3 74.8%
Alison Bache 100% 109.4 38.3%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mariah King 100% 2.2 1.6 43.1 27.7 12.2 7.1 3.9 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Jenna Miller 100% 5.9 0.0 1.3 8.3 15.0 13.6 12.5 11.3 9.4 7.9 6.0 4.7 3.4 2.4 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
McKenzie Love 100% 10.8 0.0 0.6 1.8 3.4 5.0 6.0 7.6 8.3 9.4 9.3 9.1 8.1 7.4 6.3 5.2 3.6 2.7 2.1 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
Mackenzie Adams 100% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.3 3.2 4.0 5.4 6.7 7.3 8.6 8.2 8.7 7.7 7.7 7.0 5.4 4.3 3.7 2.9 1.8 1.1 100.0%
Caitlin Clark 100% 18.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.5 3.6 3.9 5.7 6.9 7.4 8.0 8.8 8.8 9.5 8.1 7.0 6.1 4.1 100.0%
Hanna Durbin 100% 29.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.9 3.8 100.0%
Alison Bache 100% 34.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 99.8%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mariah King 1.0 80.9 14.0 3.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
Jenna Miller 2.5 3.6 33.7 26.4 16.1 9.7 5.6 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
McKenzie Love 5.2 0.1 3.4 10.0 15.8 17.3 16.1 12.9 9.0 6.2 4.1 2.7 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Mackenzie Adams 7.9 0.2 1.5 4.2 7.1 10.9 13.3 13.9 13.3 11.6 9.0 6.6 4.5 2.7 1.2 0.1
Caitlin Clark 10.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.0 6.4 9.2 10.6 12.4 13.4 13.2 12.0 8.7 6.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
Hanna Durbin 16.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 3.4 7.3 30.0 21.7 14.0 8.4 5.2 3.3 1.9 1.2 0.9 0.4
Alison Bache 19.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 5.2 11.6 14.6 13.7 12.2 10.9 8.3 6.6 4.7 3.4