Northwestern
Boys - Girls
2015 - 2016 - 2017
Switch to All-time Team Page

State Rank #83
New Prairie Semi-State Rank: #25
Culver Academies Regional Rank: #5
Logansport Sectional Rank #5
Most Likely Finish 20th place at Semi-State
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 0.0%
Advance to Semi-State 48.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating Logansport Invitational Marion Invitational Maconaquah Invitational New Prairie Invitational New Haven Invitational Hoosier Conference Logansport Sectional Culver Academies Regional New Prairie Semi-State
Date 8/20 9/3 9/10 9/17 9/24 10/1 10/8 10/15 10/22
Team Rating 817 709 642 884 911 830 881 874 911
Team Adjusted Rating 709 642 782 813 830 823 844 911
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Logansport Invitational Marion Invitational Maconaquah Invitational New Prairie Invitational New Haven Invitational Hoosier Conference Logansport Sectional Culver Academies Regional New Prairie Semi-State
441  Casey Lechner 10 21:09 21:05 20:39 20:48 20:59 20:52 21:00 21:16 21:31 21:20 21:31
625  Lauren Longshore 9 21:46 21:57 21:33 21:28 21:50 21:38 21:51 21:25 22:40
641  Kate Bilkey 11 21:49 22:07 22:48 21:05 21:31 21:31 21:36 21:53 21:53 22:41
789  Nicole Crocker 12 22:13 22:14 21:20 21:06 22:40 22:52 21:55 22:07 22:46
912  Madison McGriff 10 22:29 21:31 21:57 22:38 22:32 22:42 22:45
Lauryn Fackler 10 23:50 22:31 23:33 24:17 23:54 24:32 23:03 23:43 23:52
Adri Freeman 9 23:50 25:45 24:36 25:05 23:47 22:43 22:59 23:40
Sophia Yager-Motl 10 24:11 21:56 22:09 24:46 24:19
Kaylynne Fernandes 9 24:20 22:51 24:31 24:13 24:18 25:22
Ally Bunch 11 25:11 25:57 25:26 24:58 24:52




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 0.0%
Semi-State 48.0% 19.4 485 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 5.2 11.5 28.7
Regionals 100% 5.6 146 1.2 4.5 11.4 30.9 25.4 21.7 4.2 0.7 0.0
Sectionals 100% 2.9 84 4.4 15.2 63.9 14.8 1.7



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team made it.



Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Casey Lechner 95.5% 102.3 91.3% 90.7%
Lauren Longshore 50.9% 132.3 5.7% 12.2%
Kate Bilkey 50.3% 134.1 4.4% 10.0%
Nicole Crocker 48.0% 147.0 0.0% 0.4%
Madison McGriff 48.0% 152.7 0.0% 0.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Casey Lechner 100% 21.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.5 2.5 3.1 4.1 5.0 7.4 8.9 10.5 11.2 11.7 10.2 7.7 100.0%
Lauren Longshore 100% 30.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.4 3.8 100.0%
Kate Bilkey 100% 31.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0 2.0 3.3 100.0%
Nicole Crocker 100% 39.2 0.0 0.1 100.0%
Madison McGriff 100% 44.6 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Casey Lechner 7.8 0.4 1.8 5.1 9.5 16.2 20.0 19.3 13.3 6.4 3.8 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Lauren Longshore 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.9 4.7 8.5 10.0 10.0 10.5 10.7 10.7 8.9 6.7 5.8 4.2 2.9 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.1
Kate Bilkey 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.5 6.6 8.7 9.7 9.8 10.8 10.7 9.6 8.4 6.8 5.3 3.6 2.6 1.3 0.7 0.2
Nicole Crocker 20.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.6 2.3 3.5 4.8 6.8 8.8 10.2 11.8 12.9 13.1 10.6 7.0
Madison McGriff 23.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.7 4.2 6.0 8.0 12.2 16.6 18.2