All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | | Preseason Rating | |
Warsaw Classic |
Elkhart/St. Joseph County Clash |
West Noble Invitational |
Culver Academies Invitational |
Northern Lakes Conference |
Elkhart Central Sectional |
Elkhart Central Regional |
New Haven Semi-State |
|---|
| Date | | |
8/23 |
9/10 |
9/17 |
9/24 |
10/1 |
10/8 |
10/15 |
10/22 |
| Team Rating |
826 | |
842 |
840 |
744 |
815 |
825 |
800 |
776 |
|
| Team Adjusted Rating | | |
842 |
840 |
744 |
815 |
825 |
800 |
776 |
|
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating | Preseason Rating |
Warsaw Classic |
Elkhart/St. Joseph County Clash |
West Noble Invitational |
Culver Academies Invitational |
Northern Lakes Conference |
Elkhart Central Sectional |
Elkhart Central Regional |
New Haven Semi-State |
|---|
| 182 |
Erica Stutsman |
11 |
20:13 |
20:19 |
19:55 |
21:00 |
20:14 |
20:11 |
19:50 |
20:11 |
20:25 |
20:16 |
| 658 |
Kate Jarvis |
11 |
21:52 |
21:01 |
22:09 |
22:06 |
21:39 |
21:54 |
21:56 |
21:31 |
21:29 |
23:22 |
| 870 |
Jennifer Martinez |
10 |
22:24 |
21:47 |
23:54 |
22:39 |
21:58 |
22:14 |
23:05 |
22:17 |
22:08 |
|
| 913 |
Megan Miller |
9 |
22:29 |
|
24:09 |
23:15 |
22:17 |
22:17 |
22:14 |
22:21 |
22:31 |
|
| 922 |
Ariana Runge |
9 |
22:30 |
|
21:59 |
22:16 |
22:50 |
22:39 |
22:37 |
22:41 |
22:15 |
|
| 946 |
Whitney Wolfe |
10 |
22:33 |
21:31 |
22:50 |
21:55 |
21:57 |
22:45 |
22:43 |
22:56 |
|
|
| 1,079 |
Amanda Jenkins |
10 |
22:48 |
23:23 |
24:08 |
23:38 |
23:18 |
23:25 |
23:28 |
23:10 |
22:25 |
|
| 1,365 |
Hannah Brubaker |
10 |
23:25 |
22:17 |
22:46 |
22:31 |
23:28 |
|
23:43 |
|
23:52 |
|
|
Desirae Diamond |
12 |
25:05 |
24:32 |
24:09 |
25:15 |
25:24 |
25:05 |
|
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
| State Finals |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Semi-State |
16.7% |
16.4 |
404 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.3 |
1.0 |
1.9 |
4.7 |
5.1 |
3.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Regionals |
99.8% |
7.0 |
181 |
|
|
|
1.5 |
15.3 |
22.0 |
24.7 |
21.3 |
10.9 |
4.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
3.7 |
123 |
|
|
38.6 |
49.2 |
12.0 |
0.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Erica Stutsman |
2.4% |
107.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.4% |
2.4% |
| Semi-State | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Erica Stutsman |
100% |
45.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
100.0% |
100.0% |
| Kate Jarvis |
30.5% |
109.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
16.6% |
21.2% |
| Jennifer Martinez |
16.8% |
129.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.3% |
| Megan Miller |
16.7% |
132.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.1% |
| Ariana Runge |
16.7% |
133.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.1% |
| Whitney Wolfe |
16.7% |
135.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Amanda Jenkins |
16.7% |
152.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Erica Stutsman |
100% |
10.7 |
|
0.4 |
1.4 |
2.6 |
4.1 |
5.6 |
6.5 |
7.8 |
8.0 |
8.4 |
8.1 |
8.3 |
7.5 |
6.6 |
5.9 |
4.9 |
3.9 |
3.2 |
2.3 |
1.8 |
1.2 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
100.0% |
100.0% |
| Kate Jarvis |
100.0% |
38.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
84.2% |
98.8% |
| Jennifer Martinez |
99.8% |
55.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5.3% |
70.9% |
| Megan Miller |
99.8% |
57.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5.3% |
61.9% |
| Ariana Runge |
99.8% |
58.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
58.5% |
| Whitney Wolfe |
99.8% |
60.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5.3% |
53.5% |
| Amanda Jenkins |
99.8% |
70.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
13.5% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Erica Stutsman |
5.1 |
1.6 |
6.9 |
10.5 |
14.5 |
15.4 |
14.1 |
10.8 |
8.5 |
6.2 |
4.5 |
3.1 |
2.0 |
1.2 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Kate Jarvis |
21.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
2.8 |
5.6 |
7.5 |
8.7 |
10.7 |
10.9 |
11.1 |
9.7 |
8.5 |
6.6 |
| Jennifer Martinez |
31.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
1.4 |
1.8 |
3.1 |
4.1 |
| Megan Miller |
32.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
1.1 |
1.7 |
2.6 |
| Ariana Runge |
33.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
1.0 |
1.4 |
2.2 |
| Whitney Wolfe |
34.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
1.0 |
1.6 |
| Amanda Jenkins |
41.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
|
