Valparaiso
Boys - Girls
2015 - 2016 - 2017
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State Rank #10
New Prairie Semi-State Rank: #1
New Prairie Regional Rank: #1
Chesterton Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 10th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 5.7%
Top 10 at State Finals 53.2%
Advance to State Finals 99.3%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating Valpo Jamboree Lions Pride Invitational IWU Wildcat Invitational New Prairie Invitational Highland Invitational Duneland Athletic Conference Chesterton Sectional New Prairie Regional New Prairie Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/23 9/3 9/10 9/17 9/24 10/1 10/8 10/15 10/22 10/29
Team Rating 243 982 248 294 251 952 284 245 239 260 237
Team Adjusted Rating 243 248 294 251 243 284 245 239 260 237
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Valpo Jamboree Lions Pride Invitational IWU Wildcat Invitational New Prairie Invitational Highland Invitational Duneland Athletic Conference Chesterton Sectional New Prairie Regional New Prairie Semi-State State Finals
22  Ava Gilliana 9 18:51 18:46 19:01 18:37 18:46 19:02 18:56 18:55 18:56
28  Logan Ferngren 11 18:59 18:35 18:47 19:08 19:05 19:19 19:07 18:47 19:02 18:51
83  Julia Arnold 10 19:36 19:32 20:12 20:12 19:43 20:14 19:58 19:42 19:46 19:28
172  Elena Kipp 11 20:10 19:48 20:11 20:24 20:06 20:07 20:04 20:10 20:16 20:09
304  Hannah Shepherd 9 20:41 20:29 20:49 21:24 20:49 20:19 20:35 20:43 20:42
405  Nicole Brandy 9 21:03 20:59 21:00 20:50 20:59 21:03 21:52 20:54
432  Isabella Iussig 12 21:08 21:28 22:38 21:06 22:38 22:08 21:28 21:38 21:21 21:25 20:59
664  Esther Allen 11 21:52 20:30 21:45 21:10 21:36 22:14 22:35
674  Kristyn Hoffman 9 21:54 22:17 22:44 22:35 21:31 21:31
685  Tarin Snider 10 21:55 21:11 22:33 21:31
705  Adrianna McFadden 10 21:59 22:28 22:11 21:39 22:41 21:33
717  Emma Fitzgerald 10 22:00 20:26 22:56 21:44 21:51 22:41 21:44
776  Kylie Ireland 10 22:11 23:04 22:00 22:10 22:00
786  Bridget McGrath 11 22:13 20:37 21:37 21:25 23:15 22:39
830  Mary Warner 11 22:19 22:45 22:17 22:29 22:31 22:00
978  Ezzlee Faitz 11 22:36 22:23 22:17 23:13 22:45
1,108  Megan Dalton 11 22:52 22:50 23:30 22:34
1,222  Diane McGovern 11 23:07 23:18 22:46 23:56 22:55
1,328  Abby Steele 10 23:22 23:08 23:07 23:51 23:32
1,363  Ruth Stamp 9 23:25 23:37 23:14 23:17 23:38
Lilly O'Shea 9 23:41 23:50 23:16 24:01
Julia Fink 11 23:47 23:37 24:19 23:39 23:43
Corinne Ritzi 10 23:56 23:21 23:31 25:01 24:10




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 99.3% 10.4 315 0.0 0.4 1.3 4.0 5.9 7.9 10.5 11.3 11.9 11.0 9.5 8.0 6.5 4.0 2.8 1.9 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Semi-State 100% 2.0 114 44.8 29.5 14.2 6.5 3.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Regionals 100% 1.2 40 85.2 14.1 0.7
Sectionals 100% 1.2 34 81.2 17.8 1.0



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ava Gilliana 100.0% 24.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.7 2.8 3.0 2.6 3.3 2.9 3.3 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.3 3.0 3.8 98.6% 99.9%
Logan Ferngren 99.9% 31.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 87.7% 99.5%
Julia Arnold 99.3% 80.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 61.2%
Elena Kipp 99.3% 131.0 0.0% 4.4%
Hannah Shepherd 99.3% 166.7 0.0% 0.0%
Nicole Brandy 99.3% 184.7 0.0% 0.0%
Isabella Iussig 99.3% 187.7 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ava Gilliana 100% 4.7 3.0 7.0 12.1 16.8 15.9 13.0 10.1 7.6 5.4 3.4 2.3 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Logan Ferngren 100% 6.4 0.9 2.5 5.6 9.3 11.7 14.0 13.4 11.5 9.2 7.0 4.9 3.5 2.5 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Julia Arnold 100% 17.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.4 2.6 3.7 5.4 6.1 6.5 6.6 7.1 6.9 6.3 6.3 5.3 5.0 4.6 4.1 3.3 3.0 100.0%
Elena Kipp 100% 36.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.2 100.0%
Hannah Shepherd 100% 69.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.5%
Nicole Brandy 100% 95.5 89.7%
Isabella Iussig 100% 100.9 84.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ava Gilliana 100% 1.6 21.5 51.2 25.1 2.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
Logan Ferngren 100% 2.2 7.1 29.8 56.1 5.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
Julia Arnold 100% 4.7 0.1 0.9 29.3 26.3 20.9 11.6 5.6 2.7 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Elena Kipp 100% 10.0 0.1 0.9 3.3 8.3 11.9 13.2 11.9 9.9 8.3 6.8 5.9 4.7 3.9 3.0 2.1 1.8 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 100.0%
Hannah Shepherd 100% 20.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.9 4.8 5.3 5.6 6.3 7.2 7.2 7.0 7.4 7.4 7.1 5.7 100.0%
Nicole Brandy 100% 27.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.3 1.4 2.2 2.9 4.0 4.5 5.8 6.5 100.0%
Isabella Iussig 100% 29.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.5 3.2 4.0 5.0 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ava Gilliana 1.6 20.6 53.0 26.1 0.4
Logan Ferngren 2.2 7.2 30.2 61.0 1.5 0.1
Julia Arnold 3.7 0.0 1.0 66.6 20.5 7.3 2.5 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Elena Kipp 7.7 0.5 9.7 15.4 16.4 12.1 10.4 8.7 6.8 5.2 4.2 3.6 2.4 2.0 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0
Hannah Shepherd 16.1 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.8 2.4 3.5 4.3 5.5 6.0 7.3 8.0 8.5 8.8 8.7 8.5 8.0 6.3 4.8 2.9 1.6 0.9
Nicole Brandy 22.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.7 1.4 1.7 2.4 3.3 4.6 5.8 7.9 9.5 10.7 11.9 11.2 9.0
Isabella Iussig 23.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.9 4.0 5.6 7.5 9.7 11.6 12.2 11.7