All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | | Preseason Rating | |
THSB State Preview |
Riverview Health Flashrock Invite |
Midwest Catholic Championship |
Indianapolis City |
Brebeuf Jesuit Sectional |
Noblesville Regional |
Shelbyville Semi-State |
State Finals |
|---|
| Date | | |
9/1 |
9/15 |
9/22 |
9/29 |
10/6 |
10/13 |
10/20 |
10/27 |
| Team Rating |
338 | |
367 |
468 |
368 |
441 |
336 |
268 |
333 |
|
| Team Adjusted Rating | | |
367 |
346 |
368 |
441 |
336 |
268 |
333 |
|
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating | Preseason Rating |
THSB State Preview |
Riverview Health Flashrock Invite |
Midwest Catholic Championship |
Indianapolis City |
Brebeuf Jesuit Sectional |
Noblesville Regional |
Shelbyville Semi-State |
State Finals |
|---|
| 33 |
Gillian Cridge |
11 |
19:03 |
19:12 |
19:00 |
|
19:13 |
19:30 |
19:08 |
18:53 |
19:01 |
18:55 |
| 69 |
Audrey McKinney |
11 |
19:24 |
19:31 |
19:45 |
19:30 |
19:27 |
19:35 |
19:21 |
19:08 |
19:11 |
19:33 |
| 88 |
Gracie Carr |
11 |
19:36 |
19:30 |
19:25 |
20:02 |
19:57 |
19:58 |
19:32 |
19:16 |
19:59 |
|
| 341 |
Ellie Thor |
10 |
20:57 |
21:02 |
21:19 |
20:56 |
21:17 |
21:57 |
21:13 |
20:35 |
20:50 |
|
| 419 |
Megan Kaster |
11 |
21:16 |
21:14 |
23:17 |
21:35 |
21:35 |
21:19 |
20:59 |
20:54 |
21:10 |
|
| 436 |
Kendrick Mernitz |
11 |
21:18 |
22:24 |
21:16 |
21:03 |
21:03 |
|
21:11 |
21:45 |
21:31 |
|
| 840 |
Lindsey Douglas |
11 |
22:18 |
|
22:53 |
23:44 |
22:21 |
22:33 |
22:07 |
22:09 |
22:02 |
|
| 1,023 |
Kylie Price |
11 |
22:43 |
23:19 |
|
22:47 |
22:31 |
22:48 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,106 |
Charlie Ramey |
10 |
22:53 |
23:53 |
25:42 |
23:14 |
22:32 |
22:24 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,273 |
Sarah Wojtalik |
9 |
23:13 |
|
23:39 |
23:23 |
22:52 |
23:13 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,305 |
Maura Flood |
10 |
23:17 |
23:16 |
22:54 |
|
|
23:30 |
|
|
|
|
|
Sarah Prazeau |
12 |
24:01 |
|
24:26 |
24:04 |
|
23:44 |
|
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
| State Finals |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Semi-State |
100% |
7.7 |
206 |
|
|
0.1 |
1.1 |
4.1 |
12.3 |
31.1 |
24.0 |
17.7 |
9.2 |
0.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Regionals |
100% |
5.0 |
131 |
|
|
1.1 |
9.1 |
83.2 |
6.2 |
0.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
2.9 |
67 |
|
8.2 |
91.2 |
0.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Gillian Cridge |
95.0% |
35.3 |
|
|
0.1 |
|
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
1.9 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
1.9 |
95.0% |
95.0% |
| Audrey McKinney |
51.7% |
57.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
51.7% |
51.7% |
| Gracie Carr |
17.3% |
73.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
17.3% |
17.3% |
| Semi-State | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Gillian Cridge |
100% |
11.6 |
|
0.1 |
1.6 |
2.6 |
4.3 |
6.3 |
6.0 |
6.7 |
7.6 |
5.9 |
5.8 |
5.4 |
6.2 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
4.2 |
3.7 |
2.8 |
2.4 |
3.0 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
1.7 |
1.3 |
|
100.0% |
| Audrey McKinney |
100% |
24.7 |
|
|
0.1 |
|
0.2 |
0.7 |
0.4 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
2.2 |
2.7 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
3.3 |
2.5 |
3.6 |
4.0 |
3.7 |
3.5 |
3.9 |
3.3 |
3.8 |
4.1 |
|
100.0% |
| Gracie Carr |
100% |
33.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
1.4 |
1.0 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
2.7 |
2.3 |
2.6 |
2.7 |
|
100.0% |
| Ellie Thor |
100% |
88.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.5% |
| Megan Kaster |
100% |
104.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.2% |
| Kendrick Mernitz |
100% |
106.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.2% |
| Lindsey Douglas |
100% |
145.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Gillian Cridge |
100% |
5.8 |
0.1 |
2.6 |
11.1 |
13.7 |
13.6 |
11.7 |
10.3 |
8.4 |
7.3 |
5.9 |
3.3 |
3.5 |
2.4 |
1.7 |
1.4 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
0.7 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
|
0.1 |
|
|
100.0% |
| Audrey McKinney |
100% |
12.7 |
|
0.1 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
2.3 |
3.7 |
4.8 |
5.1 |
6.8 |
6.4 |
7.1 |
7.9 |
6.5 |
6.3 |
6.9 |
4.9 |
4.4 |
4.7 |
4.1 |
3.6 |
3.2 |
2.9 |
2.7 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Gracie Carr |
100% |
18.2 |
|
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.8 |
1.1 |
1.4 |
1.9 |
2.4 |
3.7 |
3.4 |
4.5 |
4.2 |
5.8 |
5.2 |
7.5 |
7.0 |
5.6 |
5.6 |
7.3 |
5.7 |
6.4 |
5.2 |
4.7 |
|
100.0% |
| Ellie Thor |
100% |
47.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Megan Kaster |
100% |
55.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Kendrick Mernitz |
100% |
55.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Lindsey Douglas |
100% |
74.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
98.4% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Gillian Cridge |
3.2 |
3.6 |
17.0 |
25.1 |
20.5 |
13.8 |
9.0 |
6.6 |
3.1 |
1.0 |
0.5 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Audrey McKinney |
6.7 |
0.1 |
0.8 |
3.1 |
7.7 |
11.5 |
15.8 |
15.1 |
16.2 |
14.4 |
9.9 |
4.1 |
1.1 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Gracie Carr |
9.0 |
|
0.1 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
2.8 |
5.3 |
8.5 |
13.6 |
18.4 |
21.3 |
18.5 |
6.0 |
2.5 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Ellie Thor |
21.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
2.7 |
4.8 |
6.2 |
8.1 |
12.0 |
12.4 |
13.7 |
11.8 |
7.7 |
6.5 |
| Megan Kaster |
25.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
|
0.3 |
0.9 |
1.7 |
2.2 |
4.1 |
5.9 |
7.9 |
10.3 |
10.5 |
| Kendrick Mernitz |
26.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
1.4 |
3.6 |
5.2 |
7.0 |
9.3 |
8.4 |
| Lindsey Douglas |
39.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
