Carroll (FW)
Boys - Girls
2018 - 2019 - 2020
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State Rank #1
New Haven Semi-State Rank: #1
West Noble Regional Rank: #1
Northrop Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 1st place at State Finals
State Champion 64.7%
Top 5 at State Finals 99.5%
Top 10 at State Finals 100.0%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating Huntington North Invitational Marion Invitational Bruin Invitational RH Flashrock Invitational West Noble Invitational New Haven Classic Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/24 9/7 9/14 9/21 9/21 9/28 10/12 10/19 10/26 11/2
Team Rating 117 128 130 779 102 949 158 144 172 113 123
Team Adjusted Rating 128 130 117 102 117 158 144 125 113 123
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Huntington North Invitational Marion Invitational Bruin Invitational RH Flashrock Invitational West Noble Invitational New Haven Classic Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
3  Zoe Duffus 11 18:10 18:41 18:19 18:19 18:48 18:43 18:24 17:57 18:22
17  Rayna Fruchey 12 18:48 18:21 18:32 18:44 18:31 19:33 18:50 18:49 18:53 18:49
29  Mallory Clements 12 19:04 19:09 18:39 18:55 18:58 19:28 19:03 19:13 19:02 19:10
31  Ashlyn Minton 11 19:06 19:15 18:48 19:13 19:15 19:05 19:09 19:00 19:19 18:58
83  Shelby Christman 11 19:35 20:16 20:35 19:53 20:29 20:42 20:05 20:15 19:21 19:39
85  Brooke Hansen 10 19:37 19:32 20:05 18:58 19:23 19:43 19:39 19:54
116  Madelyn Ruch 10 19:54 20:33 20:27 20:17 20:18 20:41 20:08 19:48 20:01 19:46
614  Elizabeth LaLonde 12 21:42 21:04 21:24 21:33 21:39 21:39 22:01 21:54
652  Paige Hout 9 21:49 21:41 21:37 22:08 22:03 22:03 21:26
905  Ava Leimkuhler 10 22:21 21:56 22:35 22:55 22:00 22:28 22:11
1,105  Aubrey Barb 9 22:47 22:19 22:24 22:45 22:59 23:21
1,337  Isabella Hilaski 9 23:18 25:07 23:04 27:11 22:34 22:53
1,338  Tori Gloyd 9 23:18 23:08 22:20 23:21 23:17 24:20
1,347  Jill Yoder 9 23:18 23:27 23:27 22:52 23:29
Gwyn Sunderlin 10 23:51 23:23 24:21 24:44 23:23 23:28




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 1.5 103 64.7 22.9 8.6 2.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Semi-State 100% 1.0 54 97.3 2.7 0.0
Regionals 100% 1.0 33 100.0 0.0
Sectionals 100% 1.0 29 100.0 0.1



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Zoe Duffus 100% 3.5 3.1 14.8 22.7 17.6 11.9 8.6 6.9 4.3 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Rayna Fruchey 100% 18.7 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 2.5 2.7 3.1 3.6 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.1 2.8 99.3%
Mallory Clements 100% 33.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.6 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.7 2.5 2.5 93.3%
Ashlyn Minton 100% 34.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.5 91.9%
Shelby Christman 100% 74.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 38.6%
Brooke Hansen 100% 77.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 32.0%
Madelyn Ruch 100% 100.8 7.2%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Zoe Duffus 100% 1.6 5.0 73.9 13.1 4.7 1.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Rayna Fruchey 100% 7.1 0.0 0.1 8.2 9.2 10.5 11.3 9.7 9.2 8.9 7.7 6.7 5.1 4.1 2.9 2.1 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 100.0%
Mallory Clements 100% 12.3 0.6 1.3 2.0 3.1 4.3 5.3 6.3 7.8 8.0 8.6 8.7 8.4 6.6 6.0 5.2 4.5 3.4 2.7 2.1 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.6 100.0%
Ashlyn Minton 100% 12.9 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.8 3.4 4.7 5.8 6.9 7.5 8.3 8.6 8.1 7.3 6.6 5.9 4.7 4.0 3.2 2.8 2.1 1.5 1.2 0.6 100.0%
Shelby Christman 100% 23.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.5 1.8 2.7 3.4 4.6 5.2 5.0 6.2 6.8 7.0 7.4 8.3 100.0%
Brooke Hansen 100% 24.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.4 3.4 3.9 4.4 5.4 6.6 6.7 7.5 7.8 100.0%
Madelyn Ruch 100% 31.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.7 2.1 2.7 3.6 99.8%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Zoe Duffus 100% 1.6 4.8 82.1 9.9 2.4 0.7 0.1 100.0%
Rayna Fruchey 100% 4.7 0.2 16.1 20.5 19.4 18.1 16.8 6.6 2.2 0.0 100.0%
Mallory Clements 100% 7.2 1.7 4.0 7.4 12.4 18.3 27.6 25.9 2.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Ashlyn Minton 100% 7.5 1.0 3.0 6.2 10.7 16.7 27.3 31.2 3.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Shelby Christman 100% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 6.0 40.7 29.8 10.6 4.6 2.3 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Brooke Hansen 100% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.7 31.7 35.0 14.0 5.6 3.1 1.8 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Madelyn Ruch 100% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.4 9.8 28.2 15.2 10.7 7.5 5.4 4.3 3.5 2.8 2.0 1.7 1.4 0.8 0.8 0.6 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Zoe Duffus 1.5 5.0 83.5 9.2 1.9 0.3 0.0
Rayna Fruchey 4.2 0.3 20.1 26.0 22.1 21.3 8.0 2.2 0.1
Mallory Clements 6.3 0.0 2.0 6.1 12.3 19.5 29.8 27.6 2.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ashlyn Minton 6.6 1.6 4.9 9.9 16.9 29.0 33.8 3.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Shelby Christman 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 5.7 41.9 30.6 10.7 4.2 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
Brooke Hansen 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.7 31.9 35.6 14.2 6.0 3.3 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Madelyn Ruch 11.4 0.0 0.2 3.1 10.0 29.9 16.5 11.7 8.3 6.1 4.0 3.2 2.1 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1