Elkhart Memorial
Boys - Girls
2018 - 2019 - 2020
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State Rank #84
New Haven Semi-State Rank: #23
Elkhart Central Regional Rank: #5
Elkhart Central Sectional Rank #5
Most Likely Finish 6th place at Regionals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 0.0%
Advance to Semi-State 32.1%
Advance to Regional 82.9%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating NIC Stomp Ox Bow 4-Way Elkhart/St. Joe County Clash New Haven Classic NIC / NLC Elkhart Central Sectional Elkhart Central Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/24 8/27 9/14 9/28 10/5 10/12 10/19 10/26 11/2
Team Rating 802 824 854 764 895 856 888
Team Adjusted Rating 771 854 764 895 856 888
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating NIC Stomp Ox Bow 4-Way Elkhart/St. Joe County Clash New Haven Classic NIC / NLC Elkhart Central Sectional Elkhart Central Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
42  Morgan Dyer 12 19:15 18:24 19:18 19:23 19:11 18:53 19:29 19:34 19:19 19:01 20:51
616  Rachel Terrell 10 21:43 21:41 22:03 22:53 22:18 22:59 21:49 21:32 21:21 22:05
803  Morgan Eash 12 22:09 23:09 22:04 21:44 21:56 22:18 21:56 23:15
871  Gabby Scott 11 22:17 20:25 21:29 22:22 21:37 22:40 22:21 22:44
1,371  Adrianna Shepard 12 23:21 23:17 23:04 23:17 24:14 23:12
Claudia Morales 10 24:01 24:26 24:31 24:01 23:39
Laila Nagy 12 24:36 25:56 24:47 24:01 24:38 24:55 24:14




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 0.0%
Semi-State 32.1% 17.1 425 0.1 0.4 1.7 3.2 5.8 7.3 7.3 4.7 1.5
Regionals 82.9% 5.8 158 1.8 8.1 22.2 27.6 19.2 4.1
Sectionals 100% 4.2 125 6.7 27.1 26.1 23.1 12.4 4.3 0.3



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Morgan Dyer 88.4% 44.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.4 1.4 88.4% 88.4%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Morgan Dyer 100% 16.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.5 2.1 2.6 3.8 4.4 4.9 5.9 6.5 7.5 7.5 7.1 6.6 6.6 6.1 5.1 4.6 4.1 3.0 2.2 100.0% 100.0%
Rachel Terrell 45.9% 121.2 20.4% 31.5%
Morgan Eash 32.3% 137.0 0.3% 1.6%
Gabby Scott 32.1% 141.1 0.1% 0.4%
Adrianna Shepard 32.1% 157.2 0.0% 0.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Morgan Dyer 100% 1.4 35.8 38.3 18.9 5.9 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0% 100.0%
Rachel Terrell 99.8% 35.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.6 2.1 98.8% 99.6%
Morgan Eash 92.4% 46.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 55.5% 82.4%
Gabby Scott 88.4% 50.3 0.0 0.0 31.9% 66.7%
Adrianna Shepard 82.9% 66.9 0.0% 0.1%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Morgan Dyer 1.2 40.0 48.5 10.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rachel Terrell 20.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 2.2 3.3 4.8 6.3 8.1 9.5 11.1 11.2 10.2 8.3 6.4 5.6
Morgan Eash 27.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 2.0 2.6 3.7 5.3 6.7 7.7
Gabby Scott 29.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.8 2.4 3.8 4.8
Adrianna Shepard 44.3