All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | | Preseason Rating | |
Ox Bow Early Bird Invite |
NIC Stomp |
Warsaw Tiger Invitational |
Penn Invitational |
Elkhart/St. Joe County Clash |
New Prairie Invitational |
New Haven Classic |
NIC / NLC |
Riley Sectional |
Elkhart Central Regional |
New Haven Semi-State |
|---|
| Date | | |
8/18 |
8/24 |
8/27 |
8/31 |
9/14 |
9/21 |
9/28 |
10/5 |
10/12 |
10/19 |
10/26 |
| Team Rating |
716 | |
1,115 |
796 |
946 |
777 |
806 |
777 |
807 |
769 |
766 |
708 |
745 |
| Team Adjusted Rating | | |
707 |
796 |
804 |
777 |
806 |
777 |
807 |
769 |
766 |
684 |
745 |
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating | Preseason Rating |
Ox Bow Early Bird Invite |
NIC Stomp |
Warsaw Tiger Invitational |
Penn Invitational |
Elkhart/St. Joe County Clash |
New Prairie Invitational |
New Haven Classic |
NIC / NLC |
Riley Sectional |
Elkhart Central Regional |
New Haven Semi-State |
|---|
| 217 |
Sarah Beshara |
10 |
20:23 |
19:59 |
|
19:45 |
19:51 |
19:37 |
20:28 |
20:14 |
20:18 |
20:45 |
20:46 |
20:23 |
21:02 |
| 491 |
Rachel Williams |
11 |
21:20 |
21:56 |
21:57 |
21:47 |
|
22:13 |
21:43 |
21:09 |
20:53 |
21:49 |
21:28 |
20:59 |
21:12 |
| 567 |
Bailee Shambaugh |
11 |
21:35 |
21:22 |
|
22:51 |
22:14 |
22:27 |
22:40 |
21:47 |
22:26 |
21:57 |
21:52 |
21:18 |
21:20 |
| 590 |
Abby Graham |
12 |
21:39 |
|
21:28 |
21:57 |
22:54 |
21:52 |
21:59 |
22:34 |
22:21 |
21:22 |
21:44 |
21:47 |
21:24 |
| 1,067 |
Natalie Scott |
11 |
22:42 |
22:33 |
22:09 |
22:29 |
22:40 |
22:16 |
22:24 |
22:53 |
23:12 |
22:42 |
22:42 |
|
23:20 |
| 1,082 |
Sophia Croyts |
|
22:44 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
22:45 |
|
|
|
| 1,407 |
Ana Devries |
9 |
23:27 |
|
24:30 |
24:07 |
23:42 |
23:58 |
24:13 |
24:11 |
23:42 |
23:11 |
22:56 |
23:08 |
23:15 |
|
Camryn Long |
9 |
23:31 |
|
25:08 |
|
|
24:33 |
23:48 |
23:23 |
23:43 |
23:07 |
23:50 |
23:07 |
23:21 |
|
Kaitlyn King |
10 |
25:07 |
23:52 |
26:34 |
25:27 |
|
23:57 |
26:26 |
26:06 |
24:31 |
24:34 |
|
|
|
|
Grace Zerbel |
10 |
25:07 |
|
|
24:51 |
24:43 |
24:26 |
24:33 |
26:08 |
25:57 |
25:10 |
|
|
|
|
Kaitlynn Kruger |
11 |
27:19 |
|
26:02 |
27:25 |
|
27:33 |
26:28 |
29:24 |
|
|
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
| State Finals |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Semi-State |
93.2% |
16.6 |
421 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.5 |
2.2 |
4.9 |
9.4 |
12.4 |
13.7 |
15.0 |
14.6 |
12.2 |
8.3 |
|
|
|
|
| Regionals |
100% |
3.9 |
134 |
|
0.0 |
43.5 |
37.1 |
12.7 |
4.5 |
1.9 |
0.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
2.0 |
70 |
|
96.6 |
3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Sarah Beshara |
0.1% |
113.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1% |
0.1% |
| Semi-State | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Sarah Beshara |
100% |
53.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
100.0% |
100.0% |
| Rachel Williams |
95.5% |
109.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
33.5% |
80.5% |
| Bailee Shambaugh |
93.6% |
120.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5.6% |
47.4% |
| Abby Graham |
93.4% |
123.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.1% |
39.3% |
| Natalie Scott |
93.2% |
151.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Sophia Croyts |
93.2% |
152.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Ana Devries |
93.2% |
159.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Sarah Beshara |
100% |
9.4 |
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
1.2 |
5.9 |
8.2 |
9.4 |
10.3 |
10.4 |
10.0 |
9.2 |
8.6 |
7.7 |
6.5 |
4.4 |
3.2 |
2.2 |
1.3 |
0.8 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Rachel Williams |
100% |
25.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.8 |
1.2 |
1.9 |
2.6 |
3.5 |
5.2 |
6.3 |
6.9 |
7.0 |
6.9 |
7.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Bailee Shambaugh |
100% |
31.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
1.7 |
2.1 |
2.6 |
3.2 |
3.5 |
|
100.0% |
| Abby Graham |
100% |
33.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
1.4 |
1.6 |
2.3 |
2.8 |
|
100.0% |
| Natalie Scott |
100% |
60.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Sophia Croyts |
100% |
60.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Ana Devries |
100% |
68.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
95.9% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Sarah Beshara |
3.0 |
0.7 |
29.9 |
19.7 |
21.4 |
14.0 |
7.1 |
4.4 |
2.6 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Rachel Williams |
9.9 |
|
|
0.1 |
0.3 |
1.1 |
2.6 |
3.9 |
7.4 |
21.1 |
15.8 |
12.8 |
9.8 |
7.9 |
5.9 |
4.9 |
3.1 |
1.7 |
1.0 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
| Bailee Shambaugh |
13.4 |
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
1.4 |
4.3 |
7.6 |
9.2 |
10.4 |
11.0 |
11.3 |
11.1 |
10.2 |
8.5 |
5.5 |
3.9 |
2.0 |
1.1 |
0.8 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
| Abby Graham |
14.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
2.6 |
5.2 |
7.3 |
8.6 |
9.9 |
10.4 |
11.6 |
11.2 |
11.1 |
8.5 |
5.4 |
3.3 |
1.8 |
1.0 |
0.6 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
| Natalie Scott |
27.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
1.2 |
2.1 |
3.0 |
4.4 |
5.0 |
6.5 |
| Sophia Croyts |
28.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.8 |
1.4 |
2.4 |
3.6 |
4.9 |
6.0 |
| Ana Devries |
33.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
