Northridge
Boys - Girls
2018 - 2019 - 2020
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State Rank #20
New Haven Semi-State Rank: #6
Elkhart Central Regional Rank: #1
Elkhart Central Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 17th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.1%
Top 10 at State Finals 3.1%
Advance to State Finals 58.3%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating Huntington North Invitational Penn Invitational Elkhart/St. Joe County Clash New Haven Classic NIC / NLC Elkhart Central Sectional Elkhart Central Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/24 8/31 9/14 9/28 10/5 10/12 10/19 10/26 11/2
Team Rating 330 537 432 535 452 395 405 348 319 334
Team Adjusted Rating 465 432 392 452 395 405 348 319 334
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Huntington North Invitational Penn Invitational Elkhart/St. Joe County Clash New Haven Classic NIC / NLC Elkhart Central Sectional Elkhart Central Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
35  Haylee Hile 9 19:10 19:33 19:23 19:48 19:40 19:06 20:02 19:37 19:00 19:02
145  Alison Bache 12 20:04 20:28 20:31 20:33 20:40 20:33 20:15 20:31 20:19 20:06 19:55
209  Tame Baylis 9 20:21 23:31 24:40 22:46 21:33 20:42 20:23 20:24 20:12
231  Caitlin Clark 12 20:27 20:57 20:21 20:11 20:38 20:25 20:25 20:22 20:45
271  Clare Ritchie 10 20:37 20:51 21:18 21:04 20:45 20:35 20:25 20:41 20:24 20:30 20:38
380  Keeton LeBaron 11 20:58 20:46 22:04 22:41 22:53 22:42 21:22 20:55 20:37 21:48 21:09
486  Emma Long 9 21:19 21:25 21:14 22:27 22:20 21:22 21:07 21:10
603  Hayley Troyer 10 21:41 21:56 21:39 21:38 21:32 21:50 21:43
687  Ann Metzger 12 21:54 22:11 22:15 21:52 21:42 21:57 21:57
Kylie McMann 9 23:49 22:53 24:42
Delaney Lopez 10 23:50 23:43 24:04 23:34 23:59 23:51
Karsyn Smaka 9 24:12 24:00 23:39 25:06 24:05
Grace Ritchie 12 25:42 23:28 27:06 25:30




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 58.3% 15.9 390 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.8 3.2 4.0 5.2 6.6 7.8 8.3 7.3 5.4 2.8 1.6 1.1 0.3 0.1
Semi-State 100% 6.1 195 0.4 5.4 11.4 17.9 23.3 21.5 15.0 4.3 0.9 0.0
Regionals 100% 1.3 40 66.7 33.3
Sectionals 100% 1.0 30 100.0



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Haylee Hile 94.2% 38.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.8 86.1% 91.8%
Alison Bache 58.4% 106.3 0.1% 2.1%
Tame Baylis 58.3% 130.2 0.0% 0.1%
Caitlin Clark 58.3% 137.9 0.0% 0.1%
Clare Ritchie 58.3% 150.5 0.0% 0.0%
Keeton LeBaron 58.3% 172.6 0.0% 0.0%
Emma Long 58.3% 188.3 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Haylee Hile 100% 14.4 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 1.9 2.6 3.5 4.1 5.2 5.8 6.7 7.1 7.8 7.7 7.2 6.8 6.0 5.2 4.7 3.8 3.0 2.5 1.9 1.2 100.0%
Alison Bache 100% 36.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.5 100.0%
Tame Baylis 100% 51.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Caitlin Clark 100% 58.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Clare Ritchie 100% 68.8 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Keeton LeBaron 100% 91.4 98.4%
Emma Long 100% 109.8 81.3%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Haylee Hile 100% 1.0 52.8 30.5 12.8 3.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Alison Bache 100% 5.5 0.4 2.5 10.3 27.6 20.2 13.4 9.0 6.2 4.0 2.8 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Tame Baylis 100% 9.1 0.1 0.9 4.4 8.9 10.6 12.2 11.9 11.6 10.6 8.9 6.9 4.8 3.1 2.1 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Caitlin Clark 100% 10.5 0.1 0.3 1.6 4.4 7.8 8.9 10.0 10.8 11.3 11.0 9.2 8.0 6.0 4.1 2.9 1.9 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Clare Ritchie 100% 13.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.9 3.3 5.0 7.2 8.7 10.6 11.8 11.5 9.9 8.4 6.8 5.5 3.4 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 100.0%
Keeton LeBaron 100% 18.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.8 3.0 4.9 7.5 8.5 9.1 10.8 11.2 9.7 7.7 6.1 4.6 3.2 2.4 100.0%
Emma Long 100% 24.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.8 2.6 3.8 5.8 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.8 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Haylee Hile 1.0 57.0 36.8 6.1 0.1
Alison Bache 4.0 0.0 0.7 10.6 38.0 26.6 15.6 5.7 2.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
Tame Baylis 6.3 0.0 0.7 5.8 14.9 21.9 23.9 17.9 9.8 3.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Caitlin Clark 7.1 0.0 0.2 2.2 8.2 15.0 22.2 22.9 17.3 8.2 2.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Clare Ritchie 8.5 0.0 0.4 1.8 4.6 10.1 18.7 27.5 22.0 8.7 3.4 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Keeton LeBaron 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 4.8 16.4 26.3 18.2 11.7 8.4 5.0 3.1 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Emma Long 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.4 8.7 12.0 12.6 12.4 12.0 10.0 9.1 6.9 4.2 2.9 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.5