Pre-tourney Rankings
West Coast
2011-12


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
29 Gonzaga 99.0%   8   25 - 6 13 - 3 25 - 6 13 - 3 +11.1      +5.8 38 +5.3 33 68.3 146 +11.7 31 +10.1 2
38 St. Mary's 100.0%   8   25 - 5 14 - 2 25 - 5 14 - 2 +10.1      +8.4 20 +1.7 125 63.3 271 +12.3 24 +13.6 1
45 BYU 63.8%   12   23 - 8 12 - 4 23 - 8 12 - 4 +8.8      +2.6 104 +6.2 23 83.3 6 +8.8 55 +8.0 3
137 San Francisco 0.0%   18 - 13 8 - 8 18 - 13 8 - 8 +2.3      +4.5 64 -2.2 238 72.7 56 +1.7 145 +0.5 5
149 Loyola Marymount 0.0%   17 - 12 11 - 5 17 - 12 11 - 5 +1.3      -0.7 190 +2.0 113 68.1 153 +3.4 126 +7.1 4
224 San Diego 0.0%   11 - 18 7 - 9 11 - 18 7 - 9 -3.3      -1.1 207 -2.2 237 68.0 155 -3.4 224 -0.6 6
286 Portland 0.0%   6 - 24 3 - 13 6 - 24 3 - 13 -7.3      -2.9 249 -4.5 285 71.6 77 -6.8 274 -8.8 8
287 Pepperdine 0.0%   9 - 19 4 - 12 9 - 19 4 - 12 -7.4      -5.8 298 -1.5 220 59.9 316 -6.0 262 -6.2 7
289 Santa Clara 0.0%   6 - 22 0 - 16 6 - 22 0 - 16 -7.6      +0.1 166 -7.7 334 67.6 167 -9.5 299 -20.4 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Gonzaga 2.0 100.0
St. Mary's 1.0 100.0
BYU 3.0 100.0
San Francisco 5.0 100.0
Loyola Marymount 4.0 100.0
San Diego 6.0 100.0
Portland 8.0 100.0
Pepperdine 7.0 100.0
Santa Clara 9.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Gonzaga 13 - 3 100.0
St. Mary's 14 - 2 100.0
BYU 12 - 4 100.0
San Francisco 8 - 8 100.0
Loyola Marymount 11 - 5 100.0
San Diego 7 - 9 100.0
Portland 3 - 13 100.0
Pepperdine 4 - 12 100.0
Santa Clara 0 - 16 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga
St. Mary's 100.0% 100.0
BYU
San Francisco
Loyola Marymount
San Diego
Portland
Pepperdine
Santa Clara


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 99.0% 0.0% 99.0% 8   0.0 2.9 15.3 27.2 33.7 17.6 2.1 0.1 1.0 99.0%
St. Mary's 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 8   0.0 0.1 3.2 14.4 25.0 30.9 21.9 4.2 0.4 0.0
BYU 63.8% 0.0% 63.8% 12   0.0 0.8 7.4 27.4 25.5 2.7 36.2 63.8%
San Francisco 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Santa Clara 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 99.0% 0.0% 99.0% 53.2% 15.8% 6.6% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2%
St. Mary's 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 49.5% 12.7% 5.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
BYU 63.8% 29.9% 50.0% 18.3% 6.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
San Francisco 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Santa Clara 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.6 0.3 36.5 63.1
1st Round 100.0% 2.5 0.4 50.1 49.5
2nd Round 81.9% 1.2 18.1 46.9 30.7 4.2
Sweet Sixteen 31.2% 0.3 68.8 27.9 3.3 0.1
Elite Eight 12.8% 0.1 87.2 12.4 0.3
Final Four 4.0% 0.0 96.0 3.9 0.0
Final Game 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2
Champion 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3