Pre-tourney Rankings
Cincinnati
American Athletic
2013-14
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.3#26
Expected Predictive Rating+16.1#12
Pace62.1#308
Improvement-2.2#272

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#102
Improvement+0.1#177

Defense
Total Defense+10.3#7
Improvement-2.3#292
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.1% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.6% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 57.7% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 99.4% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% n/a n/a
Average Seed 4.4 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round99.9% n/a n/a
Second Round73.6% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen37.0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight13.9% n/a n/a
Final Four5.6% n/a n/a
Championship Game2.1% n/a n/a
National Champion0.6% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 4 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2013 94   NC Central W 74-61 85%     1 - 0 +15.4 +6.6 +9.4
  Nov 12, 2013 66   North Carolina St. W 68-57 78%     2 - 0 +16.0 +3.0 +14.2
  Nov 16, 2013 331   Appalachian St. W 77-49 99%     3 - 0 +12.3 +1.3 +11.6
  Nov 20, 2013 328   Campbell W 81-62 99%     4 - 0 +4.0 +3.3 +1.8
  Nov 26, 2013 318   Umass Lowell W 79-49 98%     5 - 0 +16.8 -6.9 +20.9
  Nov 29, 2013 339   Kennesaw St. W 95-67 99%     6 - 0 +11.3 +9.6 -0.1
  Dec 03, 2013 173   South Carolina Upstate W 86-50 93%     7 - 0 +32.7 +13.8 +20.1
  Dec 07, 2013 31   @ New Mexico L 54-63 45%     7 - 1 +5.6 -4.4 +8.8
  Dec 14, 2013 40   Xavier L 47-64 60%     7 - 2 -6.3 -13.3 +3.9
  Dec 17, 2013 17   Pittsburgh W 44-43 46%     8 - 2 +15.4 -5.9 +21.8
  Dec 21, 2013 97   Middle Tennessee W 69-48 85%     9 - 2 +23.0 +1.9 +21.6
  Dec 23, 2013 286   Chicago St. W 102-62 98%     10 - 2 +29.6 +17.1 +9.4
  Dec 28, 2013 49   Nebraska W 74-59 73%     11 - 2 +22.0 +13.6 +9.9
  Jan 01, 2014 32   SMU W 65-57 66%     12 - 2 1 - 0 +17.0 +4.9 +12.8
  Jan 04, 2014 36   @ Memphis W 69-53 48%     13 - 2 2 - 0 +29.9 +3.2 +26.6
  Jan 07, 2014 127   @ Houston W 61-60 77%     14 - 2 3 - 0 +6.5 -4.2 +10.8
  Jan 11, 2014 166   Rutgers W 71-51 92%     15 - 2 4 - 0 +17.3 -4.5 +21.7
  Jan 14, 2014 146   Temple W 69-58 91%     16 - 2 5 - 0 +9.7 -4.5 +14.8
  Jan 18, 2014 177   @ South Florida W 61-54 86%     17 - 2 6 - 0 +8.9 -2.1 +11.8
  Jan 23, 2014 148   Central Florida W 69-51 91%     18 - 2 7 - 0 +16.6 +1.7 +16.8
  Jan 26, 2014 146   @ Temple W 80-76 80%     19 - 2 8 - 0 +8.3 +8.7 -0.3
  Jan 30, 2014 1   @ Louisville W 69-66 14%     20 - 2 9 - 0 +28.2 +13.3 +15.1
  Feb 02, 2014 177   South Florida W 50-45 93%     21 - 2 10 - 0 +1.3 -8.9 +11.6
  Feb 06, 2014 25   Connecticut W 63-58 60%     22 - 2 11 - 0 +15.6 +5.1 +11.1
  Feb 08, 2014 32   @ SMU L 55-76 45%     22 - 3 11 - 1 -6.5 -2.2 -6.6
  Feb 15, 2014 127   Houston W 73-62 89%     23 - 3 12 - 1 +10.9 +14.5 -0.9
  Feb 19, 2014 148   @ Central Florida W 77-49 81%     24 - 3 13 - 1 +32.2 +11.8 +22.8
  Feb 22, 2014 1   Louisville L 57-58 27%     24 - 4 13 - 2 +18.6 +0.7 +17.9
  Mar 01, 2014 25   @ Connecticut L 45-51 39%     24 - 5 13 - 3 +10.2 -13.8 +23.6
  Mar 06, 2014 36   Memphis W 97-84 69%     25 - 5 14 - 3 +21.3 +22.8 -2.3
  Mar 08, 2014 166   @ Rutgers W 70-66 84%     26 - 5 15 - 3 +6.9 +2.2 +4.9
  Mar 13, 2014 148   Central Florida W 61-58 87%     27 - 5 +4.4 -7.0 +11.6
  Mar 14, 2014 25   Connecticut L 56-58 50%     27 - 6 +11.4 +4.6 +6.4
Projected Record 27.0 - 6.0 15.0 - 3.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 100.0    100.0
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 99.9% 99.9% 4.4 0.1 0.6 10.2 46.9 35.8 5.9 0.5 0.0 0.1 99.9%
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 4.4 0.1 0.6 10.2 46.9 35.8 5.9 0.5 0.0 0.1 99.9%