Pre-tourney Rankings
SMU
American Athletic
2013-14
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.8#32
Expected Predictive Rating+11.1#43
Pace67.3#187
Improvement-0.9#217

Offense
Total Offense+3.8#82
Improvement-2.9#305

Defense
Total Defense+8.0#16
Improvement+2.0#78
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.8% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 38.8% n/a n/a
Average Seed 11.1 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four24.7% n/a n/a
First Round28.0% n/a n/a
Second Round12.8% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen4.8% n/a n/a
Elite Eight1.8% n/a n/a
Final Four0.6% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.2% n/a n/a
National Champion0.1% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2013 195   TCU W 69-61 89%     1 - 0 +6.2 -0.5 +7.0
  Nov 11, 2013 111   Rhode Island W 89-58 84%     2 - 0 +32.1 +9.8 +19.2
  Nov 18, 2013 46   @ Arkansas L 78-89 45%     2 - 1 +2.1 +3.4 -0.1
  Nov 20, 2013 276   Texas St. W 70-49 96%     3 - 1 +11.9 -0.1 +13.0
  Nov 24, 2013 323   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 87-61 98%     4 - 1 +11.7 +9.4 +2.0
  Nov 26, 2013 212   Sam Houston St. W 72-53 94%     5 - 1 +13.3 -2.2 +16.3
  Nov 29, 2013 6   Virginia L 73-76 30%     5 - 2 +14.0 +17.4 -3.6
  Nov 30, 2013 112   Texas A&M W 55-52 77%     6 - 2 +6.9 -3.2 +10.6
  Dec 02, 2013 315   McNeese St. W 88-59 98%     7 - 2 +16.1 +10.5 +6.1
  Dec 04, 2013 266   @ Illinois-Chicago W 73-65 91%     8 - 2 +5.1 +6.9 -1.0
  Dec 18, 2013 291   UT Rio Grande Valley W 82-56 97%     9 - 2 +14.8 +9.5 +5.9
  Dec 20, 2013 109   @ Wyoming W 62-54 69%     10 - 2 +14.7 +2.9 +13.0
  Jan 01, 2014 26   @ Cincinnati L 57-65 34%     10 - 3 0 - 1 +8.1 +1.3 +6.1
  Jan 04, 2014 25   Connecticut W 74-65 54%     11 - 3 1 - 1 +19.6 +16.0 +4.4
  Jan 12, 2014 1   @ Louisville L 63-71 11%     11 - 4 1 - 2 +17.2 +0.3 +17.2
  Jan 15, 2014 177   South Florida W 71-54 92%     12 - 4 2 - 2 +13.3 +1.4 +12.7
  Jan 18, 2014 148   @ Central Florida W 58-46 76%     13 - 4 3 - 2 +16.2 -9.2 +26.4
  Jan 19, 2014 259   Hofstra W 73-49 96%     14 - 4 +15.9 -2.7 +19.9
  Jan 21, 2014 166   Rutgers W 70-56 91%     15 - 4 4 - 2 +11.3 -3.0 +14.7
  Jan 26, 2014 127   @ Houston W 75-68 73%     16 - 4 5 - 2 +12.5 +5.3 +7.6
  Jan 28, 2014 177   @ South Florida L 71-78 82%     16 - 5 5 - 3 -5.1 -0.2 -4.9
  Feb 01, 2014 36   Memphis W 87-72 63%     17 - 5 6 - 3 +23.3 +11.7 +10.4
  Feb 06, 2014 146   Temple W 75-52 88%     18 - 5 7 - 3 +21.7 +4.6 +19.1
  Feb 08, 2014 26   Cincinnati W 76-55 55%     19 - 5 8 - 3 +31.5 +20.7 +13.2
  Feb 14, 2014 166   @ Rutgers W 77-65 80%     20 - 5 9 - 3 +14.9 +11.6 +4.4
  Feb 16, 2014 146   @ Temple L 64-71 76%     20 - 6 9 - 4 -2.7 -8.8 +6.0
  Feb 19, 2014 127   Houston W 68-64 86%     21 - 6 10 - 4 +3.9 +2.7 +1.9
  Feb 23, 2014 25   @ Connecticut W 64-55 33%     22 - 6 11 - 4 +25.2 +6.4 +19.5
  Mar 01, 2014 148   Central Florida W 70-55 89%     23 - 6 12 - 4 +13.6 -1.9 +16.1
  Mar 05, 2014 1   Louisville L 71-84 23%     23 - 7 12 - 5 +6.6 +5.9 +1.2
  Mar 08, 2014 36   @ Memphis L 58-67 42%     23 - 8 12 - 6 +4.9 -9.8 +15.0
  Mar 13, 2014 127   Houston L 64-68 80%     23 - 9 -1.3 -7.8 +6.4
Projected Record 23.0 - 9.0 12.0 - 6.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 100.0% 38.8% 38.8% 11.1 0.4 1.2 4.8 21.6 10.8 61.2 38.8%
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 38.8% 0.0% 38.8% 11.1 0.4 1.2 4.8 21.6 10.8 61.2 38.8%