Pre-tourney Rankings
Pac-12
2014-15


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Arizona 100.0%   2   31 - 3 16 - 2 31 - 3 16 - 2 +22.2      +11.1 2 +11.1 2 70.2 82 +20.2 7 +19.9 1
8 Utah 99.6%   5   23 - 8 13 - 5 23 - 8 13 - 5 +17.4      +8.7 8 +8.7 8 59.9 311 +13.2 21 +13.2 3
40 UCLA 49.6%   20 - 13 11 - 7 20 - 13 11 - 7 +10.2      +5.1 40 +5.1 40 70.3 80 +9.7 45 +10.3 4
47 Oregon 97.5%   8   24 - 9 13 - 5 24 - 9 13 - 5 +9.6      +4.8 47 +4.8 47 70.5 75 +12.8 24 +13.8 2
50 Stanford 13.1%   19 - 13 9 - 9 19 - 13 9 - 9 +9.2      +4.6 50 +4.6 50 66.8 156 +8.3 56 +6.7 6
65 Arizona St. 0.2%   17 - 15 9 - 9 17 - 15 9 - 9 +7.3      +3.7 65 +3.7 65 68.9 108 +5.9 86 +8.3 5
83 Colorado 0.0%   15 - 17 7 - 11 15 - 17 7 - 11 +5.7      +2.8 83 +2.8 83 66.0 175 +4.2 101 +4.7 9
96 Oregon St. 0.0%   16 - 14 8 - 10 16 - 14 8 - 10 +4.5      +2.2 96 +2.2 96 58.5 333 +5.3 90 +6.1 7
108 California 0.0%   18 - 15 7 - 11 18 - 15 7 - 11 +3.8      +1.9 108 +1.9 108 68.4 119 +5.9 83 +4.3 10
116 Washington 0.0%   16 - 15 5 - 13 16 - 15 5 - 13 +3.4      +1.7 116 +1.7 116 69.5 98 +4.7 98 +1.4 11
142 USC 0.0%   12 - 20 3 - 15 12 - 20 3 - 15 +1.6      +0.8 142 +0.8 142 73.7 27 +0.7 155 -2.3 12
167 Washington St. 0.0%   13 - 18 7 - 11 13 - 18 7 - 11 -0.2      -0.1 167 -0.1 167 72.6 41 +2.6 131 +5.1 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Arizona 1.0 100.0
Utah 2.0 100.0
UCLA 4.0 100.0
Oregon 2.0 100.0
Stanford 5.0 100.0
Arizona St. 5.0 100.0
Colorado 8.0 100.0
Oregon St. 7.0 100.0
California 8.0 100.0
Washington 11.0 100.0
USC 12.0 100.0
Washington St. 8.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Arizona 16 - 2 100.0
Utah 13 - 5 100.0
UCLA 11 - 7 100.0
Oregon 13 - 5 100.0
Stanford 9 - 9 100.0
Arizona St. 9 - 9 100.0
Colorado 7 - 11 100.0
Oregon St. 8 - 10 100.0
California 7 - 11 100.0
Washington 5 - 13 100.0
USC 3 - 15 100.0
Washington St. 7 - 11 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arizona 100.0% 100.0
Utah
UCLA
Oregon
Stanford
Arizona St.
Colorado
Oregon St.
California
Washington
USC
Washington St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arizona 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2   37.4 55.6 7.0 0.0
Utah 99.6% 0.0% 99.6% 5   0.0 0.0 1.7 16.5 28.9 26.3 19.2 5.9 1.0 0.1 0.4 99.6%
UCLA 49.6% 0.0% 49.6% 0.1 1.2 7.8 31.2 9.3 50.4 49.6%
Oregon 97.5% 0.0% 97.5% 8   0.1 1.8 9.6 25.1 35.1 21.8 3.9 0.2 2.5 97.5%
Stanford 13.1% 0.0% 13.1% 0.0 3.8 9.1 0.1 86.9 13.1%
Arizona St. 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.2%
Colorado 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
California 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
USC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Washington St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arizona 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.5% 83.4% 65.3% 42.4% 26.2% 14.8%
Utah 99.6% 0.0% 99.6% 81.7% 48.2% 22.8% 11.0% 4.7% 1.7%
UCLA 49.6% 29.6% 35.6% 14.3% 4.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Oregon 97.5% 0.0% 97.5% 44.3% 8.1% 2.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Stanford 13.1% 12.9% 6.7% 2.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arizona St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
USC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.6 1.1 43.6 49.5 5.8 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 3.4 1.6 59.3 37.1 2.0
2nd Round 99.8% 2.4 0.2 8.7 46.7 38.9 5.5 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 93.5% 1.5 6.5 47.0 41.5 4.8 0.2 0.0
Elite Eight 75.7% 0.9 24.3 59.9 15.3 0.5
Final Four 50.1% 0.5 49.9 46.2 4.0 0.0
Final Game 30.4% 0.3 69.6 29.8 0.6
Champion 16.5% 0.2 83.5 16.5