Pre-tourney Rankings
Dayton
Atlantic 10
2014-15
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.1#54
Expected Predictive Rating+10.4#39
Pace64.1#236
Improvement-1.7#252

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#54
Improvement+0.9#130

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#54
Improvement-2.6#295
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 66.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 66.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed 10.8 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four28.9% n/a n/a
First Round50.9% n/a n/a
Second Round18.5% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen4.4% n/a n/a
Elite Eight1.1% n/a n/a
Final Four0.2% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 11 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 14, 2014 334   Alabama A&M W 76-52 98%     1 - 0 +8.3 -7.8 -7.8
  Nov 20, 2014 53   Texas A&M W 55-53 50%     2 - 0 +11.1 +4.6 +4.6
  Nov 21, 2014 67   Connecticut L 64-75 58%     2 - 1 -3.9 +3.6 +3.6
  Nov 23, 2014 91   Boston College W 65-53 66%     3 - 1 +16.8 +2.4 +2.4
  Nov 29, 2014 279   Illinois-Chicago W 75-41 94%     4 - 1 +24.9 -4.6 -4.6
  Dec 03, 2014 211   @ Miami (OH) W 66-62 79%     5 - 1 +4.6 +0.3 +0.3
  Dec 06, 2014 130   Eastern Michigan W 73-64 82%     6 - 1 +8.3 -0.3 -0.3
  Dec 09, 2014 101   Bowling Green W 56-52 77%     7 - 1 +5.4 +0.7 +0.7
  Dec 13, 2014 26   @ Arkansas L 55-69 28%     7 - 2 +1.0 +7.5 +7.5
  Dec 20, 2014 239   Boston University W 78-62 93%     8 - 2 +8.7 -3.6 -3.6
  Dec 23, 2014 85   Georgia Tech W 75-61 73%     9 - 2 +16.7 +1.3 +1.3
  Dec 30, 2014 44   Mississippi W 78-74 58%     10 - 2 +10.9 +3.5 +3.5
  Jan 03, 2015 207   Duquesne W 81-55 90%     11 - 2 1 - 0 +20.9 -2.5 -2.5
  Jan 08, 2015 105   @ St. Bonaventure W 78-61 58%     12 - 2 2 - 0 +23.9 +3.4 +3.4
  Jan 10, 2015 188   @ Fordham W 76-58 77%     13 - 2 3 - 0 +19.4 +0.7 +0.7
  Jan 14, 2015 100   La Salle W 61-50 77%     14 - 2 4 - 0 +12.4 +0.7 +0.7
  Jan 17, 2015 268   Saint Louis W 61-45 94%     15 - 2 5 - 0 +7.4 -4.3 -4.3
  Jan 20, 2015 30   @ Davidson L 60-77 31%     15 - 3 5 - 1 -2.9 +7.0 +7.0
  Jan 24, 2015 62   Richmond W 63-60 65%     16 - 3 6 - 1 +8.0 +2.5 +2.5
  Jan 29, 2015 121   @ Massachusetts L 64-66 63%     16 - 4 6 - 2 +3.7 +2.9 +2.9
  Feb 01, 2015 188   Fordham W 101-77 89%     17 - 4 7 - 2 +19.7 -2.2 -2.2
  Feb 06, 2015 69   @ George Washington L 64-65 OT 48%     17 - 5 7 - 3 +8.6 +4.8 +4.8
  Feb 10, 2015 268   @ Saint Louis W 51-44 86%     18 - 5 8 - 3 +4.2 -1.4 -1.4
  Feb 14, 2015 105   St. Bonaventure W 75-61 78%     19 - 5 9 - 3 +15.1 +0.6 +0.6
  Feb 19, 2015 158   Saint Joseph's W 68-64 86%     20 - 5 10 - 3 +1.4 -1.3 -1.3
  Feb 21, 2015 207   @ Duquesne L 73-83 79%     20 - 6 10 - 4 -9.3 +0.3 +0.3
  Feb 25, 2015 195   George Mason W 76-63 89%     21 - 6 11 - 4 +8.4 -2.3 -2.3
  Feb 28, 2015 34   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 59-55 33%     22 - 6 12 - 4 +17.7 +6.8 +6.8
  Mar 03, 2015 59   Rhode Island W 75-59 65%     23 - 6 13 - 4 +21.1 +2.5 +2.5
  Mar 07, 2015 100   @ La Salle L 53-55 57%     23 - 7 13 - 5 +5.2 +3.6 +3.6
  Mar 13, 2015 105   St. Bonaventure W 75-71 69%     24 - 7 +8.0 +2.0 +2.0
  Mar 14, 2015 59   Rhode Island W 56-52 54%     25 - 7 +12.0 +4.0 +4.0
  Mar 15, 2015 34   Virginia Commonwealth L 65-71 43%     25 - 8 +4.8 +5.4 +5.4
Projected Record 25.0 - 8.0 13.0 - 5.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 66.0% 66.0% 10.8 0.0 0.2 2.8 15.6 40.9 6.4 34.0 66.0%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 66.0% 0.0% 66.0% 10.8 0.0 0.2 2.8 15.6 40.9 6.4 34.0 66.0%