Pre-tourney Rankings
California
Pac-12
2015-16
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.7#23
Expected Predictive Rating+13.3#26
Pace70.8#153
Improvement+3.8#38

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#49
First Shot+3.3#82
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#24
Layup/Dunks+2.2#82
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#193
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#209
Freethrows+2.4#34
Improvement+0.8#148

Defense
Total Defense+8.9#7
First Shot+6.9#17
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#16
Layups/Dunks+3.4#41
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#299
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#13
Freethrows+0.4#146
Improvement+3.0#42
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 36.7% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 99.4% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed 4.8 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round76.2% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen39.8% n/a n/a
Elite Eight15.8% n/a n/a
Final Four6.6% n/a n/a
Championship Game2.5% n/a n/a
National Champion1.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 5 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2015 277   Rice W 97-65 98%     1 - 0 +21.6 +10.0 +10.1
  Nov 16, 2015 104   UC Santa Barbara W 85-67 88%     2 - 0 +20.0 +9.1 +9.7
  Nov 20, 2015 185   East Carolina W 70-62 95%     3 - 0 +3.6 -2.8 +6.7
  Nov 23, 2015 225   Sam Houston St. W 89-63 97%     4 - 0 +19.4 +11.9 +7.2
  Nov 26, 2015 53   San Diego St. L 58-72 68%     4 - 1 -4.2 -5.4 +1.3
  Nov 27, 2015 103   Richmond L 90-94 82%     4 - 2 +1.0 +11.3 -10.0
  Dec 01, 2015 292   Seattle W 66-52 98%     5 - 2 +2.4 -4.6 +8.0
  Dec 05, 2015 164   @ Wyoming W 78-72 OT 87%     6 - 2 +8.6 -3.8 +11.8
  Dec 09, 2015 267   Incarnate Word W 74-62 98%     7 - 2 +2.6 -4.3 +6.9
  Dec 12, 2015 39   St. Mary's W 63-59 74%     8 - 2 +12.0 -2.3 +14.7
  Dec 19, 2015 329   Coppin St. W 84-51 99%     9 - 2 +17.7 +2.3 +14.7
  Dec 22, 2015 4   @ Virginia L 62-63 OT 23%     9 - 3 +21.6 +5.8 +15.7
  Dec 28, 2015 105   Davidson W 86-60 88%     10 - 3 +28.0 +4.6 +22.0
  Jan 01, 2016 47   Colorado W 79-65 75%     11 - 3 1 - 0 +21.6 +10.6 +10.8
  Jan 03, 2016 26   Utah W 71-58 63%     12 - 3 2 - 0 +24.2 +8.2 +17.1
  Jan 06, 2016 10   @ Oregon L 65-68 31%     12 - 4 2 - 1 +16.9 -3.4 +20.5
  Jan 09, 2016 57   @ Oregon St. L 71-77 59%     12 - 5 2 - 2 +6.3 +2.6 +3.8
  Jan 14, 2016 89   @ Stanford L 71-77 70%     12 - 6 2 - 3 +3.2 +0.4 +2.9
  Jan 21, 2016 86   Arizona St. W 75-70 85%     13 - 6 3 - 3 +8.6 +5.4 +3.4
  Jan 23, 2016 12   Arizona W 74-73 55%     14 - 6 4 - 3 +14.5 +12.8 +1.7
  Jan 27, 2016 26   @ Utah L 64-73 41%     14 - 7 4 - 4 +8.1 -0.6 +8.5
  Jan 31, 2016 47   @ Colorado L 62-70 55%     14 - 8 4 - 5 +5.4 -3.6 +9.2
  Feb 06, 2016 89   Stanford W 76-61 85%     15 - 8 5 - 5 +18.4 +10.9 +8.6
  Feb 11, 2016 10   Oregon W 83-63 53%     16 - 8 6 - 5 +34.1 +18.2 +16.7
  Feb 13, 2016 57   Oregon St. W 83-71 78%     17 - 8 7 - 5 +18.5 +8.4 +9.4
  Feb 18, 2016 56   @ Washington W 78-75 58%     18 - 8 8 - 5 +15.7 -1.1 +16.2
  Feb 21, 2016 169   @ Washington St. W 80-62 87%     19 - 8 9 - 5 +20.4 +17.5 +4.9
  Feb 25, 2016 63   UCLA W 75-63 81%     20 - 8 10 - 5 +17.6 +3.9 +13.8
  Feb 28, 2016 41   USC W 87-65 64%     21 - 8 11 - 5 +32.9 +9.1 +21.5
  Mar 03, 2016 12   @ Arizona L 61-64 33%     21 - 9 11 - 6 +16.3 +0.3 +15.8
  Mar 05, 2016 86   @ Arizona St. W 68-65 69%     22 - 9 12 - 6 +12.5 +2.2 +10.4
  Mar 10, 2016 57   Oregon St. W 76-68 70%     23 - 9 +17.4 +6.6 +10.6
  Mar 11, 2016 26   Utah L 78-82 OT 52%     23 - 10 +10.2 +6.4 +4.0
Projected Record 23.0 - 10.0 12.0 - 6.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 4.8 0.0 4.2 32.5 42.7 20.0 0.6 100.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 4.8 0.0 4.2 32.5 42.7 20.0 0.6 100.0%