Pre-tourney Rankings
Colonial Athletic
2016-17


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
67 UNC Wilmington 100.0%   12   27 - 5 15 - 3 27 - 5 15 - 3 +8.0      +8.9 23 -0.9 196 71.6 84 +10.8 49 +8.8 1
93 College of Charleston 0.2%   24 - 9 14 - 4 24 - 9 14 - 4 +4.9      +1.1 141 +3.8 76 60.6 323 +6.8 78 +7.3 2
119 Towson 0.0%   19 - 13 11 - 7 19 - 13 11 - 7 +2.6      +1.2 136 +1.4 125 66.1 221 +2.3 119 +2.6 3
141 Elon 0.0%   16 - 14 10 - 8 16 - 14 10 - 8 +1.2      -1.3 203 +2.5 97 68.5 155 +0.3 154 +1.3 5
142 William & Mary 0.0%   15 - 14 10 - 8 15 - 14 10 - 8 +1.2      +5.9 46 -4.7 300 71.8 82 +0.9 145 +1.3 4
168 Northeastern 0.0%   15 - 16 8 - 10 15 - 16 8 - 10 0.0      +1.2 138 -1.2 203 64.3 262 +0.2 156 -1.4 6
187 Hofstra 0.0%   14 - 17 7 - 11 14 - 17 7 - 11 -1.0      +4.6 61 -5.6 311 66.9 206 -2.2 202 -2.8 8
218 James Madison 0.0%   9 - 23 7 - 11 9 - 23 7 - 11 -3.6      -3.9 271 +0.3 168 60.2 326 -6.4 256 -2.4 7
258 Drexel 0.0%   8 - 23 3 - 15 8 - 23 3 - 15 -5.6      -1.5 206 -4.1 288 71.8 81 -7.6 281 -9.3 10
281 Delaware 0.0%   11 - 20 5 - 13 11 - 20 5 - 13 -7.6      -4.5 284 -3.1 255 61.5 312 -3.9 226 -5.0 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
UNC Wilmington 1.0 100.0
College of Charleston 2.0 100.0
Towson 3.0 100.0
Elon 4.0 100.0
William & Mary 4.0 100.0
Northeastern 6.0 100.0
Hofstra 7.0 100.0
James Madison 7.0 100.0
Drexel 10.0 100.0
Delaware 9.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
UNC Wilmington 15 - 3 100.0
College of Charleston 14 - 4 100.0
Towson 11 - 7 100.0
Elon 10 - 8 100.0
William & Mary 10 - 8 100.0
Northeastern 8 - 10 100.0
Hofstra 7 - 11 100.0
James Madison 7 - 11 100.0
Drexel 3 - 15 100.0
Delaware 5 - 13 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UNC Wilmington 100.0% 100.0
College of Charleston
Towson
Elon
William & Mary
Northeastern
Hofstra
James Madison
Drexel
Delaware


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UNC Wilmington 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 12   0.0 0.2 6.3 87.6 5.9 0.0
College of Charleston 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.2%
Towson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Elon 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
William & Mary 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Northeastern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Hofstra 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
James Madison 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Drexel 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Delaware 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UNC Wilmington 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 18.9% 4.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
College of Charleston 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.8 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
2nd Round 18.9% 0.2 81.1 18.9
Sweet Sixteen 4.3% 0.0 95.7 4.3
Elite Eight 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0