Pre-tourney Rankings
Atlantic Coast
2017-18


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Duke 100.0%   2   26 - 7 13 - 5 26 - 7 13 - 5 +20.7      +10.4 2 +10.4 2 73.1 74 +17.4 9 +16.4 2
3 Virginia 100.0%   1   31 - 2 17 - 1 31 - 2 17 - 1 +20.7      +10.3 3 +10.3 3 53.4 351 +25.8 1 +27.5 1
7 North Carolina 100.0%   2   25 - 10 11 - 7 25 - 10 11 - 7 +17.7      +8.9 7 +8.9 7 75.8 42 +17.2 10 +15.0 3
21 Clemson 99.9%   5   23 - 9 11 - 7 23 - 9 11 - 7 +13.9      +6.9 21 +6.9 21 64.6 287 +15.0 13 +14.2 5
27 Louisville 20.0%   20 - 13 9 - 9 20 - 13 9 - 9 +12.2      +6.1 27 +6.1 27 72.0 100 +11.5 40 +11.3 9
31 Virginia Tech 94.8%   8   21 - 11 10 - 8 21 - 11 10 - 8 +11.9      +6.0 31 +6.0 31 71.3 114 +12.4 27 +13.8 6
32 Notre Dame 12.4%   19 - 14 8 - 10 19 - 14 8 - 10 +11.9      +5.9 32 +5.9 32 63.3 317 +10.3 51 +9.3 10
33 Florida St. 71.8%   11   20 - 11 9 - 9 20 - 11 9 - 9 +11.8      +5.9 33 +5.9 33 77.1 26 +11.8 34 +11.5 8
38 Miami (FL) 96.3%   7   22 - 9 11 - 7 22 - 9 11 - 7 +11.1      +5.6 38 +5.6 38 67.1 228 +13.5 21 +13.7 7
39 North Carolina St. 91.5%   9   21 - 11 11 - 7 21 - 11 11 - 7 +11.0      +5.5 39 +5.5 39 76.6 33 +11.8 33 +14.3 4
54 Syracuse 39.2%   20 - 13 8 - 10 20 - 13 8 - 10 +9.6      +4.8 54 +4.8 54 60.4 343 +10.2 52 +9.1 11
68 Boston College 0.0%   19 - 15 7 - 11 19 - 15 7 - 11 +7.9      +4.0 68 +4.0 68 72.3 90 +8.9 63 +8.4 12
89 Wake Forest 0.0%   11 - 20 4 - 14 11 - 20 4 - 14 +5.8      +2.9 89 +2.9 89 71.9 101 +2.5 127 +3.4 14
108 Georgia Tech 0.0%   13 - 19 6 - 12 13 - 19 6 - 12 +4.4      +2.2 108 +2.2 108 64.5 295 +3.7 109 +7.4 13
204 Pittsburgh 0.0%   8 - 24 0 - 18 8 - 24 0 - 18 -2.5      -1.3 204 -1.3 204 63.5 316 -2.2 202 -9.1 15





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Duke 2.0 100.0
Virginia 1.0 100.0
North Carolina 3.0 100.0
Clemson 3.0 100.0
Louisville 8.0 100.0
Virginia Tech 7.0 100.0
Notre Dame 10.0 100.0
Florida St. 8.0 100.0
Miami (FL) 3.0 100.0
North Carolina St. 3.0 100.0
Syracuse 10.0 100.0
Boston College 12.0 100.0
Wake Forest 14.0 100.0
Georgia Tech 13.0 100.0
Pittsburgh 15.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Duke 13 - 5 100.0
Virginia 17 - 1 100.0
North Carolina 11 - 7 100.0
Clemson 11 - 7 100.0
Louisville 9 - 9 100.0
Virginia Tech 10 - 8 100.0
Notre Dame 8 - 10 100.0
Florida St. 9 - 9 100.0
Miami (FL) 11 - 7 100.0
North Carolina St. 11 - 7 100.0
Syracuse 8 - 10 100.0
Boston College 7 - 11 100.0
Wake Forest 4 - 14 100.0
Georgia Tech 6 - 12 100.0
Pittsburgh 0 - 18 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke
Virginia 100.0% 100.0
North Carolina
Clemson
Louisville
Virginia Tech
Notre Dame
Florida St.
Miami (FL)
North Carolina St.
Syracuse
Boston College
Wake Forest
Georgia Tech
Pittsburgh


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2   27.4 47.1 23.6 1.9 100.0%
Virginia 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1   90.7 9.3 0.0
North Carolina 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2   24.4 62.8 12.8 0.1 100.0%
Clemson 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 5   0.2 10.4 28.7 39.6 19.7 1.3 0.0 0.1 99.9%
Louisville 20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 0.0 0.3 16.0 3.6 0.0 80.0 20.0%
Virginia Tech 94.8% 0.0% 94.8% 8   0.0 1.6 16.5 30.2 28.2 15.6 2.7 0.0 5.2 94.8%
Notre Dame 12.4% 0.0% 12.4% 0.0 0.5 10.6 1.2 87.6 12.4%
Florida St. 71.8% 0.0% 71.8% 11   0.0 0.7 6.1 13.6 26.7 24.5 0.1 28.2 71.8%
Miami (FL) 96.3% 0.0% 96.3% 7   0.1 3.5 27.6 41.5 17.2 5.5 0.8 0.0 3.7 96.3%
North Carolina St. 91.5% 0.0% 91.5% 9   0.0 0.8 11.8 27.5 29.6 17.7 4.0 8.5 91.5%
Syracuse 39.2% 0.0% 39.2% 0.2 1.4 9.7 27.4 0.5 60.8 39.2%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Wake Forest 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 96.4% 79.0% 57.3% 37.2% 24.3% 15.0%
Virginia 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.7% 81.5% 60.7% 39.6% 25.5% 15.6%
North Carolina 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 94.7% 69.5% 42.6% 23.2% 11.8% 5.3%
Clemson 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 73.3% 37.4% 14.3% 6.0% 2.1% 0.6%
Louisville 20.0% 19.7% 11.8% 5.5% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Virginia Tech 94.8% 2.5% 93.6% 50.5% 13.9% 6.0% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
Notre Dame 12.4% 11.8% 7.4% 3.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida St. 71.8% 23.5% 61.0% 29.9% 9.3% 3.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Miami (FL) 96.3% 0.0% 96.3% 50.6% 15.4% 5.4% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2%
North Carolina St. 91.5% 3.8% 89.8% 44.3% 11.1% 4.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Syracuse 39.2% 27.3% 25.3% 10.0% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wake Forest 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 8.3 0.0 1.5 16.0 44.3 31.6 6.5 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 7.9 0.1 3.9 28.2 47.7 18.5 1.5 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 5.6 0.2 2.4 13.9 30.6 33.3 15.8 3.5 0.3
Sweet Sixteen 99.9% 3.2 0.1 3.8 18.9 38.7 28.5 8.7 1.2 0.0 0.0
Elite Eight 94.8% 2.0 5.2 26.1 40.7 23.7 4.0 0.2
Final Four 78.9% 1.1 21.1 49.1 26.4 3.4 0.0
Final Game 57.3% 0.7 42.7 49.0 8.3
Champion 37.1% 0.4 62.9 37.1